Wednesday, October21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Portland, ND

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 6:29PM Wednesday October 21, 2020 4:37 PM CDT (21:37 UTC) Moonrise 12:59PMMoonset 9:16PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Portland, ND
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location: 47.5, -97.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 212018 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 318 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

Coordination with WPC and neighboring NWS offices for the snow amounts and headlines. 12z model runs continued south trend in focusing heaviest QPF and snow in far northern SD. Potential for mixed precipitation also has shifted south out of the fcst area.

Snow will develop east along the SD/ND border tonight, reaching far southwestern fcst area 06z or so and then spreading east by 09z into west central MN. Snow will also develop northward toward Valley City, Fargo and Detroit Lakes late tonight. Main frontogentical forcing is lining up in the 09z-15z period over far NE SD and holds there. WPC highlights this area for snowfall rates of 1-2 inch per hour psbl along the ND/SD border. Forcing is much less north of the SD border and expect a drier north-northeast wind to keep the main snow at bay and prevent much from getting up to Highway 2 during the day Thursday. Many models have very little precipitation into DVL-GFK-TVF and this is reflected in much lower snowfall potential this region from under an inch to max of 2. Even this may be high. Snow will end in WC MN Thursday evening. Blowing snow not an issue as winds not that strong, but some drifting psbl in heavier snow areas due to north-northeast winds 20 kts or so Thu aftn.

LONG TERM. (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

Overview .

The primary impacts looking ahead to the extended forecast period will be another potential winter weather event on Saturday/Sunday and continued well below normal temperatures, with potential record breaking minimum low temperatures possible in some areas on Saturday.

Friday Night through the Weekend .

Generally zonal flow aloft is indicated by ensemble guidance for Friday through at least the early weekend. By late Saturday, a shortwave is expected to move through the region and an attendant upper level trough looks to deepen over the northern Plains. There is significant disagreement between ensemble products currently on how this system will evolve, however.

Any lingering snow potential from the Thursday system should taper off well before Friday evening. The main impact during the overnight period will be the generally clearing skies. This will lead to enhanced radiational cooling over much of the forecast area and is currently expected to drop early Saturday morning low temperatures into the single digits to low teens. A region of surface high pressure will try to settle in on Saturday, although the passing shortwave aloft may still bring some precipitation to the forecast area. This is where the main discrepancy lies between ensemble outputs. The GEFS and Canadian ensembles are both trending toward a solution of generally light snow over the southern half of the CWA, while the ECMWF is resolving a light snow event across the majority of the CWA instead. Confidence is currently low with regards to any one outcome for this system as the model spread is still quite variable and will continue to be monitored as it moves closer in range. Precipitation potential aside, with the surface high pressure and a brisk northerly wind in place for much of the weekend, subsidence and persistent CAA will keep high temperatures in the 20s for the weekend.

The Week Ahead .

Following the shortwave passage on Sunday, sky cover is expected to begin clearing out and there will again be the potential to see early morning low temperatures on Monday and Tuesday dipping into the single digits to low teens. Winds should generally be light but there will still see some potential for wind chills near to even below zero in some places. Temperatures look to "rebound" up to the low to mid 30s for some sense of a reprieve on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance is hinting at a shortwave clipper system that could impact and bring precipitation to the forecast area on Wednesday as well but confidence is currently very low.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

Lower clouds clearing northward this aftn, unsure how far north or east clearing gets, esp in Bemidji area which is hanging onto the IFR cigs. Otherwise trend into this evening will be VFR with lower cigs arriving by 12z Thu in Fargo area. Snow arriving in Fargo area 15z or so.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ND . Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for NDZ049- 052.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for NDZ038-039.

Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for NDZ053.

MN . Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ003.

Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ029>032-040.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ024-027-028.

SHORT TERM . Riddle LONG TERM . Rick/Riddle AVIATION . Riddle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Forks, Grand Forks International Airport, ND33 mi44 minW 79.00 miOvercast35°F23°F61%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGFK

Wind History from GFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE10SE11SE8S9S11S9SW7W8W10W15W13W14NW15W13W13W13W12W12NW16NW12
G20
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1 day agoW4CalmCalmCalmE3SE5E5E5SE6SE4SE5SE5SE6E7SE9SE9SE13SE13SE11SE13SE15SE16SE13SE12
G22
2 days agoW10W12W10W7W5W4W6W5W5W7W6----------W3W4NW8NW93NW7NW6NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Fargo, ND
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.