Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Portland, ND

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:01AMSunset 4:37PM Saturday December 7, 2019 5:56 AM CST (11:56 UTC) Moonrise 2:42PMMoonset 2:52AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Portland, ND
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location: 47.5, -97.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 071007 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 407 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

SHORT TERM. (Today through Sunday) Issued at 331 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

Today.. Dense fog has spread into the Devils Lake basin as well as portions of the Sheyenne River Valley. Latest HRRR guidance suggests this will persist and perhaps spread into the western Red River Valley through 9 AM CST. Earlier freezing drizzle within the Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota looks to be waning, although still getting sporadic reports at KGFK and KPKD. A step outside of the office verifies a light mist still lingers. Still think freezing drizzle chances are decreasing, or rather advecting further east into northwest/north-central Minnesota. Despite this trend, lingering glaze of ice may remain through the morning on untreated surfaces and thus poses a hazard to transportation.

Focus then shifts to the chance for additional wintry mix this morning with freezing rain, sleet, and snow possible mainly north of the Highway 200 corridor capable of producing another glaze of ice and/or a dusting of snow/sleet. Current IR satellite imagery depicts an area of colder, higher cloud tops over southern SK and eastern MT moving east. This is associated with mid level lift/saturation of an upper jet max rounding the crest of a ridge. Responding near the surface is an area of low level WAA. Both synoptic forcing mechanisms lends credence into the CAM suite suggesting this wintry mix pass west to east across northern counties starting around 6 AM. It treks across the CWA before exiting around noon near LOW. While precipitation may be steady, it shouldn't linger over one location for more than 1 to 2 hours. Still, the chance of light icing may lead to slick conditions and thus continues a hazard to transportation.

Otherwise, today will be the last day of relatively mild temperatures with highs near freezing. However, a breeze out of the south and extensive cloud cover will make it feel cooler.

Tonight through Sunday.. A cold front moves through the area from the north overnight tonight bringing the chance for light snow, increased northerly winds, and dropping temperatures. There is a slight chance of brief freezing drizzle along the initial cold frontal passage. Some flurries may linger through the day Sunday. Increasing winds gusting to 30 mph behind the cold front may lead to patchy blowing snow, especially within the Red River Valley.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 331 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

Snow in our south and very cold temps will be the main impacts for the period.

Sunday night through Wednesday . The upper trough will be swinging through the Dakotas Sunday night, with the Arctic cold front pushing into our southern counties around the same time. Some of the deterministic runs show some mid level frontogenesis along with the synoptic lift Sunday night into Monday morning, indicating some potential for banding and thus have some higher QPF along the border with SD. The GEFS M-climate is not extreme for QPF, but does have some 90th percentiles approaching our southwestern counties. Continued the trend of bumping up QPF a bit along our southern counties, but will hold off on any advisory headlines for now. Of much greater certainty is the Arctic air that this system brings down, still looking to be the coldest of the season so far. The start of the work week will bring very cold temps with even highs struggling to get above zero. There is good consensus on a reinforcing shortwave dropping heights down even further on Tuesday. The high should be very near us on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, and although much will depend on clouds, lows down into the teens to near twenty below zero will be possible. The surface high moves east and south winds will start to pick up during the day on Wednesday, but will probably not do much at that point except increase wind chill.

Thursday through Friday . The real warm up starts Thursday as flow becomes more zonal. The pattern also becomes more active, with several shortwaves coming through during the end of the week although deterministic model timing is all over the place. At this point a lot of snow seems unlikely with ensembles having pretty low probabilities of over 0.10" liquid. However, do think there will be some chances of light snow so will continue with the low POPs that the blend gives us.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1149 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

Widespread IFR and MVFR ceilings with pockets of LIFR ceilings. There are pockets of light treeing drizzle across far northeast ND and northwest MN that have impacted KGFK and KTVF this evening, however how much longer this will be a threat is tough to say and I limited mention to the early TAF period. Fog has developed across western ND and is spreading east and this could overspread eastern ND and northwest MN by 12Z before lifting 18Z, and bring drops to LIFR vis (best chance at KDVL but not confident enough to prevail at this time). South winds 5-10kt should shift to the southwest ahead of the next approaching system that could bring light wintry precip Saturday-Saturday night. Cold front should arrive Saturday night with winds shifting back to the northwest.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ND . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ006-007- 014-015-024-026-028-029-038-054.

MN . None.

SHORT TERM . CJ LONG TERM . JR AVIATION . DJR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Forks, Grand Forks International Airport, ND33 mi64 minS 95.00 miFog/Mist25°F23°F92%1017.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGFK

Wind History from GFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S4S6S7S6S8S9S9S12S10S11SE12SE13S8S11S10S9S9S8S8S9S8S11S9
1 day agoNE3NE5NE7N9N10N18N22N20N24
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2 days agoW6W7W8NW11NW13NW11NW9NW8NW7NW8W3SW5W3SW4CalmS4SE4S4S5S8SE5SE6E6E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Fargo, ND
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.