Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Portland, ND

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 7:56PM Sunday March 29, 2020 1:28 PM CDT (18:28 UTC) Moonrise 8:52AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Portland, ND
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location: 47.5, -97.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 291825 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 125 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Temperatures are already approaching or exceeding forecast highs, so adjustments were necessary to reflect these trends. Otherwise, next short term forecast focus will be potential for fog tonight. Radiational fog is expected, but timing from hi res guidance may be too pessimistic bringing lower vis down in the early evening, when this trend hasn't been seen on pas radiational events in the last 5 days. While snow melt is contributing to low level moisture and fog development, models may be producing too much too fast. Still, with surface high pressure building in and light/variable winds/clear skies stratus/fog should have an opportunity to form tonight and dense fog can't be ruled out.

UPDATE Issued at 1002 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Quiet weather in the near term continue s with surface ridge building east and main upper low only sending thin high cirrus northwest over our area. Could see highs perform better than currently anticipated with more extensive cloud cover (mid 40s may be a bit more widespread and near 50 a bit more prevalent.

UPDATE Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Mid/high level clouds still covering much of the area but expecting it to be rather thin once sunrise occurs, and should see sufficient solar get through this morning to not impact temps. Will adjust sky accordingly. Temperature forecast on track.

SHORT TERM. (Today through Monday) Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

The forecast challenge in the short term will be fog potential this evening and tonight. Low visibilities are possible impacts for the Monday morning commute.

Today . Plenty of solar today as a strong low pressure system moves out of the region . pulling what mid and high level clouds were left over northwest MN with it. Will see brisk northerly winds, especially in the southern valley, which will usher in slightly cooler temps and keep daytime highs in the upper 30s and 40s.

Tonight . Northerly winds subside and eventually turn easterly then southeasterly by tomorrow morning as return flow sets up across central North Dakota. There will be a period during the wind shift where winds become light and variable to calm . starting during the late evening. Expectation with the continued snowmelt today is for fog to develop across much of the region . with models showing the greatest impacts/lowest visibilities over southeastern North Dakota where SE winds create a subtle upslope into the higher elevations of the escarpment. MAVMOS guidance did well the last two fog events with this much lead time, so feel confident with this setup once again developing areas of fog, possibly dense in areas.

Monday . Return flow over central Dakotas will bring western zones well into the 50s for afternoon highs. The southern valley and southeastern ND should also see mid-50 highs, with mid to upper 40s elsewhere.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Mild day on Tuesday despite increasing clouds. Model ensembles are not in great agreement in when to bring in the showers on Tuesday. Blended model solutions brings in shower chances late Monday night thru Tuesday with likely pops Tuesday aftn/eve. Rain amounts look to average one half to one third of an inch.

Colder air moves in Wednesday and thru the weekend. 00z model suite and ensembles all agree on a 500 mb trough over western Canada and the Pacific Northwest with a potential stronger short wave and sfc low coming from Wyoming and then into the northern Plains Thu- Fri. Differences in timing exist with cluster of GFS ensembles indicate more Thu night/Fri vs ECMWF indicate more Thursday. National Blend of Models used for the extended favor the ECMWF idea as does the WPC. Will need to watch this system as potential is there for a decent system with higher moisture amounts. Temps suggest rain/snow.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

VFR conditions prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN thorugh early evening. There are still some gusty north winds over parts of northwest MN (15-25kt), but these should decrease early in the TAF period, with light/variable winds by this evening. Fog/stratus is expected to develop tonight, though timing may not be quite as early as some guidance suggests and most likely IFR (or LIFR) conditions would develop after 06Z improving 14-16Z based on timing from recent fog events this last week and conditional climatology.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2020

The Wild Rice River at Abercrombie is set to reach major flood stage early this week, with the Red River at Fargo expected to reach major flood stage by mid-week. Snowmelt flooding will then work northward into Halstad, East Grand Forks, and Oslo toward the middle to end of the week. Flood Warnings were added to the Red River at both Drayton and Pembina as flood stage is expected to occur late this week.

Dry weather prevails today and Monday with several chances for mainly light precipitation Tuesday through Friday as our weather pattern becomes more active.

With anticipated warmer temperatures enhancing snow melt heading into next week, the Maple River near Mapleton and the Sheyenne River near Harwood are both forecast to rise into moderate flood stage. The Buffalo River near Hawley, the Wild Rice River in MN near Hendrum, and the Sheyenne River near Kindred should reach minor flood stage. Cooler weather returns later in the week, serving to slow the melt slightly heading into next weekend.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ND . None. MN . None.

UPDATE . DJR SHORT TERM . Speicher LONG TERM . Riddle AVIATION . DJR HYDROLOGY . Lynch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Forks, Grand Forks International Airport, ND33 mi36 minN 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F30°F73%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGFK

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Last 24hrNE6NE6N7N11NE9N9N6N5N5NW7N7N6NW9NW9N9NW9NW7N9N11N11N11N14N12N14
1 day agoSW9SW10S7S7SE7SE8SE6S4SW3CalmN5N7N5CalmCalmN4CalmCalmN3N4N3CalmCalmNE6
2 days agoS10S11S11S10S8S9S10SE7S8S5S8S8S8S7S9S8S8S10S10S12S12S14SW9SW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Fargo, ND
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.