Tuesday, September22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Copper Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 7:48PM Tuesday September 22, 2020 8:22 AM EDT (12:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:15PMMoonset 10:04PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ244 900 Pm Edt Wed Aug 19 2020
.a strong Thunderstorm over the waters... The areas affected include... Eagle river to manitou island mi... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Lake superior west of line from manitou island to marquette mi beyond 5nm from shore... Manitou island to point isabelle mi... At 900 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located near point isabelle, or 27 nm northwest of stannard rock, moving southeast at 25 knots. Locations impacted include... Manitou island and bete grise. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4724 8719 4702 8743 4711 8757 4710 8758 4712 8758 4738 8798 4752 8781
LSZ244 Expires:202008200145;;511177 FZUS73 KMQT 200100 MWSMQT Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette MI 900 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 LSZ244-245-265-266-200145-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Copper Harbor, MI
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location: 47.51, -87.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 221133 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 733 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 351 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2020

Mid-level shortwave moving through the UP with a weak surface cold front moved west to east through the region. The showers associated with these also moved east out of the forecast area, but not before sending a few sparks in the sky. After midnight, much of the shower and thunderstorm activity was confined to Lake Superior and by 1am, most of the activity had exited the forecast area. GOES 16 Ch 09 highlights the dry air filtering in behind it the front well and surface obs around the region show lowering dewpoints and the weakening of winds. Temps have fallen into the 50s for most and a few high 40s close to the MI/WI stateline.

Today, high pressure will settle in over the central Appalachians while the mid-upper level ridge over the southwest broadens out and extends a ridge over the Upper Great Lakes. The rising heights and the dry airmass will result in mostly sunny skies. Given that 850mb temps are also progged near 13-14C today, a warm day is in the works. Surface temps in the mid-upper 70s are expected today, with cooler near-70F temps by Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. Given the light gradient flow over the region, the afternoon lake breezes should help cool off the east and coastal communities in the afternoon.

Tonight, expecting more of the same. Ridging over the region should make for a ideal viewing of the waxing crescent moon given the expected mostly clear and calm night. Lows should drop off into the 40s in the interior and stay in the 50s by the lakeshore.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 336 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2020

Ridging will continue at the start of this long term period. 850mb temps will range between 12C and 15C and with mostly sunny skies and deep mixing, expect highs in the mid to upper 70s with a few spots pushing 80. With generally light winds helping weak background flow, should see a lake breeze develop which means upper 60s to low 70s along the lakeshores.

Both GFS and ECMWF are showing a shortwave moving towards Upper Michigan sometime late Wednesday into Thursday morning which will bring the next chance of showers. Given consistency in the models and fgen forcing ahead of front, some MLCAPE values do approach 1000J/kg, some isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible, mainly over the west. PWAT values range from 1-1.5" so any thunderstorm that occurs could produce brief heavy rainfall.

As per previous discussion, question for daytime Thursday remains how amplified this shortwave is and if the UP can end up getting into the clear warm sector before the cold front arrives on Thursday. The 00z NAM backed off a bit from the 12z run and coming into more of an better agreement with the other models which means Upper Michigan ends up being cloudy skies all over with showers across the north and maybe an isolated thunderstorm closer to the WI border. With cloud cover, expect highs mainly in the 60s with some upper 50s over the Keweenaw. Ridging will start to build in behind late Thursday, heading into Friday allowing for partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures back into the 70s. Friday could be another breezy day as another LLJ of around 30+ kt but still given this early in the week, left the blend in there for now.

Another shortwave will approach Saturday and models are in good agreement that this one could be more of a deeper mid-level wave, that will be digging through the Northern Plains. This will bring a cold front that will actually feel cooler behind it. Showers are a good possibility Saturday into Sunday morning, with an isolated thunderstorm possible. PWATs look to be over 1.50" which will support some heavy rain in spots. Skies should clear out by Sunday afternoon but GFS, ECMWF, and the Canadian is starting to come into somewhat of an agreement of a strong storm system Monday into Tuesday. Obviously this is several days away but with good agreement this far out, something to keep an eye on as the week progresses.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 732 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2020

Mostly clear and VFR conditions are expected this TAF period for all terminals. Afternoon lake breeze should swing through KSAW this afternoon.

MARINE. (For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 351 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2020

Weakening pressure gradient and building high pressure over the lake tonight will result in the winds returning to below 20 knots for today. With these light winds, overnight cooling may result in some patchy fog by morning on Wednesday. A cold front will move through Wednesday night. Behind the front early Thursday, northeast winds may increase to 20-30kts over the west half of the lake given the building high pressure over Ontario. Another period of calm winds under 20kts is expected Thursday night into Friday. By Friday afternoon, southerly winds will increase ahead of a cold front tied to low pressure moving east just north of Lake Superior.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . None. Lake Superior . None. Lake Michigan . None.

SHORT TERM . JP LONG TERM . JH AVIATION . JP MARINE . JP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP59 3 mi31 min 4.1 64°F 1016.1 hPa55°F
GTRM4 - Superior Grand Traverse Bay, MI 29 mi82 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 56°F 1017.3 hPa (+0.7)
45001 - MID SUPERIOR 60NM North Northeast Hancock, MI 38 mi32 min WSW 12 G 14 53°F 51°F4 ft1015.8 hPa52°F
45023 41 mi23 min W 16 G 19 62°F 58°F2 ft1016 hPa56°F
STDM4 - Stannard Rock, MI 42 mi82 min WSW 21 G 23
45025 - South Entrance to Keweenaw Waterway, MI 46 mi23 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 57°F 56°F1 ft1018 hPa55°F
BIGM4 - Big Bay, MI 48 mi102 min WSW 2.9 G 7 64°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Copper Harbor, MI4 mi31 minVar 4 mi64°F55°F73%1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP59

Wind History from P59 (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW8SW6SW9
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2 days agoSW66W7SW7SW9SW7SW6SW754CalmCalmW5SW4W5W6Calm44CalmCalmCalmW5SW9
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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