Monday, April19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Copper Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 8:44PM Monday April 19, 2021 6:54 PM EDT (22:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:38AMMoonset 2:25AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ244 900 Pm Edt Wed Aug 19 2020
.a strong Thunderstorm over the waters... The areas affected include... Eagle river to manitou island mi... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Lake superior west of line from manitou island to marquette mi beyond 5nm from shore... Manitou island to point isabelle mi... At 900 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located near point isabelle, or 27 nm northwest of stannard rock, moving southeast at 25 knots. Locations impacted include... Manitou island and bete grise. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4724 8719 4702 8743 4711 8757 4710 8758 4712 8758 4738 8798 4752 8781


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Copper Harbor, MI
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location: 47.51, -87.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 192029 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 429 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 428 PM EDT MON APR 19 2021

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show that the shortwave trof that was approaching the Upper Lakes 24hrs ago has deepened and closed off a mid-level low centered over far northern Lake Superior. Sfc low pres is located near Michipicoten Island and will be exiting the lake shortly. On the backside of the low, narrow 850mb thermal trof (-12C) is wrapping s across nw Upper MI. Sharply cyclonic low- level flow within this thermal trof combined with deep moisture has resulted in a recent increase in lake enhanced snow across nw Upper MI. KMQT radar shows some of this enhanced shsn activity spreading se into Marquette/Iron counties. Looks like a little instability from limited daytime heating is assisting in expanding -shsn/flurries even farther s and se.

As the 850mb thermal trof translates se over the next several hrs, snow will increase into the eastern fcst area this evening. In that area (Alger/Luce/northern Schoolcraft counties), expect snow accumulations this evening around an inch, locally up to 2. Conversely, shsn will diminish rather quickly over the w due to loss of deeper moisture, higher April sun angle working to build a deepening mixed layer upstream of the lake (hostile for LES), and 850mb temps moderating to around -10C, marginal for LES. Thus, expect ongoing shsn to diminish rapidly to little more than flurries, if even that, over the next several hrs. Overnight into Tue morning, 850mb temps fall back a little to -11 to -14C, lowest over the e half of Lake Superior. As a result, -shsn/flurries should redevelop or expand some over the western fcst area. Nothing more than a dusting expected. To the e, -shsn will continue, but with deeper moisture exiting, the -shsn will be lighter than what occurs during the evening hrs. May see another inch of snow overnight/Tue morning. Lows tonight should range from the upper teens to mid 20s, coldest interior w half.

Flurries/-shsn should end by Tue aftn. Should be quite a bit of cloudiness around thru the day as daytime heating working on moisture off the lake leads to increased stratocu development across the entire fcst area. Expect high temps to range from the lwr 30s F n and e to the lwr 40s s central.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 303 PM EDT MON APR 19 2021

A blocking pattern will continue this week over the northern Pacific with ridging extending from the western U.S though the Gulf of Alaska and north to the Arctic Circle, with strong positive 500mb height anomalies over AK. This will help maintain downstream troughing and negative 500mb height anomalies over central and northern Canada. Shortwave energy rotating around the trough will keep an active pattern over the U.P through next weekend. Temperatures will moderate as shortwave ridging takes hold on Thursday into Friday, ahead of what looks like a bit stronger shortwave trough. The shortwave and associated cold front look to come through the region on Saturday bringing a quick shot of cooler temperatures and precipitation. WPC fuzzy ensemble clusters are locked in with the strong Pacific ridging continuing through early next weekend. Ensembles clusters start to deviate thereafter and there are some indications the western blocking ridge may start to break down.

Deterministic models show a shortwave moving through the northern Great Lakes Tuesday night with shortwave ridging building in Thursday. Not expecting much in the way of precipitation with the wave Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 850mb temps cool a little bit, down to -13F which will induce some lake instability however the air is pretty dry with deep inverted v soundings.

Temperatures will moderate with the ridging on Thursday though this ridge becomes flattened out by Friday as a weak shortwave passes to the south of the area. Thursday and Friday will probably be the warmest days in the extended. Models soundings show deep mixing on Thursday and Friday with RH dropping to around 25% for the counties along with wind gusts to around 20 mph, which could elevate fire weather conditions.

The timing of the weekend system is still a bit uncertain. It is possible we squeak out a day of temperatures in the 40s and 50s for at least the central and east with the front arriving in the evening hours. Over the west, models bring the front in by early afternoon. Deterministic models still deviate on the timing and track of the system, with the Canadian furthest south and most aggressive with forcing and precipitation. The GFS keeps the strongest forcing north of the area and the ECMWF keeps the wave weaker with an elongated trough. NBM PoPs are pretty washed out likely due to the model timing and track differences with chance PoPs over much of the area Friday night through the day Saturday. It likely will be a much shorter window for precipitation and expecting PoPs will go up and the window will narrow with subsequent forecasts. Temperature profiles look like they could be cold enough for snow, at least in the west, with some slushy accumulations possible.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 147 PM EDT MON APR 19 2021

As low pres departs to the e and drier air begins to move into the area, expect improving conditions with shsn diminishing. Gusty NW winds to 20-30kt will also subside. At KIWD, MVFR conditions will prevail this aftn, though some brief periods of IFR vis are possible. Cigs should lift to VFR this evening, but MVFR cigs may return for a good portion of Tue morning. At KCMX, expect conditions varying btwn IFR and LIFR this aftn. Expect improvement to MVFR late aftn, then to VFR overnight. MVFR cigs may return for Tue morning. At KSAW, MVFR cigs should prevail thru the fcst period. Flurries are expected thru the aftn hrs.

MARINE. (For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 428 PM EDT MON APR 19 2021

Ongoing nw gales across the e half of Lake Superior will diminish to 20-30kt by late evening as low pres heads for Quebec. Across western Lake Superior, expect wind gusts generally in the 20-25kt range. On Tue, winds will diminish to mostly under 15kt across western Lake Superior and to 15-25kt across the e. Winds will generally be blo 20kt on Wed. W to sw winds will increase on Thu, strongest over western Lake Superior where gusts to 25kt, perhaps to 30kt, should occur. Winds may diminish slightly for Fri, but will increase again late Sat (up to 30kt east) in the wake of a passing cold front.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ001.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ006-007.

Lake Superior . Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ244-245-248-264- 265.

Lake Michigan . None.

SHORT TERM . Rolfson LONG TERM . NL AVIATION . Rolfson MARINE . Rolfson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP59 3 mi64 min NNE 26 G 36 29°F 1011.3 hPa24°F
GTRM4 - Superior Grand Traverse Bay, MI 29 mi55 min NNW 12 G 19 28°F 1012.2 hPa
STDM4 - Stannard Rock, MI 42 mi55 min NW 33 G 36
BIGM4 - Big Bay, MI 48 mi75 min N 19 G 26 29°F 1009.5 hPa

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Copper Harbor, MI4 mi64 minNNE 26 G 36 miWindy29°F24°F82%1011.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP59

Wind History from P59 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5--SW7
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53W43N27
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1 day agoN7N5W3SW4W4SW5SW5SW6W64SW6SW5SW7SW7SW7CalmCalmCalmE3NE3E3NE3CalmSE5
2 days agoN11N8
G17
N9N8
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N9N8N6N7CalmW4W3CalmCalmN3NE4NE6NE6N7NE8NE5N5N5N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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