Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Queets, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The forecast remains on track, with no significant updates needed to the short and long term or fire weather this morning. The previous discussion follows below, with updates made to the aviation and marine sections. 14

A high pressure ridge building offshore will influence the Pacific Northwest through the short term, bringing warmer temperatures alongside dry conditions. Onshore flow has weakened this morning, though areas along the Pacific coast will see another day of cloudy skies from marine stratus with mostly clear conditions elsewhere. The incoming warmer air mass will bring high temperatures back into the low to mid 80s across much of the lowlands, with the marine layer limiting temperatures along the coast to the upper 60s to low 70s.

Conditions Saturday and Sunday will bring more of the same as zonal flow develops aloft, with marine stratus along the coast and mostly clear conditions further inland each day. Conditions will be dry region-wide with high temperatures peaking in the low to mid 80s on Saturday, and a few degrees higher on Sunday as high pressure starts to amplify. By Sunday, a majority of the interior lowlands will see Moderate (orange) HeatRisk.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
While a warming and drying trend will continue into next week, forecast models have come in to better agreement over a positively tilted trough passing southward over the Pacific Northwest. This will do little more than lower temperatures a few degrees across western Washington alongside cloudy skies, with the potential for a few isolated showers along the Canada border Monday afternoon.

Ensembles continue to show high pressure rebounding on Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for further warming across western Washington.
However, models have trended temperatures a degree or two cooler as a cutoff low is now favored to meander southward across British Columbia, impacting the strength of the high pressure ridge offshore. Ensembles continue to show a high (60% to 80%) chance of temperatures reaching 90 degrees or higher on Tuesday and Wednesday across the lowlands south and east of the Puget Sound, with temperatures peaking area-wide on Wednesday. Elevated overnight temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s will also provide little relief to the heat during the day. This will result in widespread Moderate (orange) HeatRisk across western Washington.

While cooling is on track for the end of next week, forecast models show disagreements over the progression of the low pressure system moving south over British Columbia. The degree of cooling is uncertain for now, with an ensemble mean showing temperatures staying in the mid 80s on Thursday with further cooling into next Friday.

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AVIATION
A brief transient ridge will pass overhead today (with flow being northwest aloft). VFR conditions continue early this morning in the interior terminals. Low fog & stratus along the the coast. Remaining areas not affected by stratus/fog will remain VFR today (though a stronger push Saturday morning will bring at least MVFR stratus into Puget Sound areas). Coastal fog/stratus will retract back to over waters this afternoon before advancing back over coastal terminals. Winds will remain northwest between 5-10 kt (lighter overnight). Gusty winds are expected in the Strait of Juan de Fuca areas this afternoon/tonight up to 25 kt.

KSEA...VFR today. Skies will be clear today, 50% chance MVFR stratus makes it back into the terminal Saturday morning (10% chance of IFR). North winds at 5-10 kt.

HPR/McMillian

MARINE
High pressure has begun to build back offshore. Flow remains northwesterly offshore over the seas. Satellite/observations along the coast confirm fog has developed with visibilities dipping to below a mile at times - have issued a dense fog advisory for the inner coastal waters/Grays Harbor/Strait of Juan de Fuca through 18Z (11 AM PDT).

A push through the Strait of Juan de Fuca this afternoon tonight is expected to bring higher end 20-30 kt winds (for a small craft advisory), with low potential for a gale gust to 35 kt. Expect the pushes to continue throughout the weekend into next week.

The coastal waters will see light winds today into Saturday (may get a touch breezy this afternoon from Grays Harbor to Cape Elizabeth but believe winds will largely remain below small craft advisory criteria, though a brief gust exceeding 20 kt is possible). Winds will pick up late this weekend into next week (exceeding 20 kt in the outer coastal waters). Seas will also increase from 3-5 feet today to 5 to 7 feet this weekend, continuing up to 6 to 10 feet Monday into the work week (with steep sees due to shorter periods).

HPR/McMillian

FIRE WEATHER
Mostly clear skies early this morning as high pressure begins to build over the region, signaling the beginning of a prolonged warming and drying trend starting today and continuing through the middle of next week. Today will be notably dry, with RH values dropping back into the 25% to 35% range over the mountains as well as the interior lowlands south of the Puget Sound. More robust onshore flow this weekend will help usher in more moist air with min RHs back into the 30% to 40% range, despite high temperatures remaining in the 80s.

While there is still some model discrepancy over how warm and dry we will get next week, there is consensus that warm and dry conditions will continue into the middle of next week, with the flow switching to offshore by Tuesday as a thermal trough begins to build along the coast. Fire weather concerns will be elevated beginning Tuesday as minimum RH values look to drop into the 20% to 30% range across much of the Cascades and the interior lowlands south of Seattle. There may also be some locally breezy east winds through the Cascade gaps. This pattern will continue to be closely monitored.

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SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Grays Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM PDT Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Saturday for Admiralty Inlet.