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FXUS65 KMSO 291311 CCA AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Missoula MT 611 AM MST Wed Nov 29 2023

DISCUSSION
The ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies today. Strong valley inversions will keep low stratus clouds lingering across northwest Montana and portions of north central Idaho. These inversions will also cause a degradation of air quality, especially across western Montana.

A few very subtle disturbances will make their way across the region tonight through Thursday. These features should help lift the inversions, including the low stratus clouds, but do not appear to be strong enough to break them completely up.

Another slightly stronger feature will push through the region on Friday causing light precipitation with the precipitation type being snow for all elevations. Then Friday night through the weekend, the models continue to show a decent plume of moisture making its way into the Northern Rockies. This moisture will bring hefty snow amounts to the higher terrain, especially along the Montana/Idaho border. Lookout Pass has over a 90% probability of snowfall amounts being greater than 8 inches Friday night through Sunday. Lolo Pass has around an 80% chance of greater than 8 inches in the same time frame. The models are showing a decent amount of downsloping effect across western Montana during this evening. Flathead, Mission, Missoula and Bitterroot valleys are expected to receive up to 1 to 2 inches of new snow with lesser amounts across southwest Montana and Lemhi county, ID. The valleys of Clearwater and Idaho counties are expected to start off as snow, then transition to a wintry mix including freezing rain Friday night, then over to all rain by Saturday as snow levels climb to around 3000 feet.

The model clusters are indicating that a ridge of high pressure will slide across the Northern Rockies Monday into Tuesday. This ridge does not appear to be completely dry as a decent plume of moisture appears to stream over the top of the ridge. The models diverge on the placement of the moisture.

AVIATION
High pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies today. Low stratus clouds will continue to affect northwest Montana, particularly KGPI, as cloud ceilings are anticipated to remain below 1000 ft. Patchy morning fog will be a concern for areas that are not currently under the cloud deck. KMSO is anticipated to have reduced visibility for a hours this morning.



MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Air Stagnation Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains
Kootenai/Cabinet Region
Lower Clark Fork Region
Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys
Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

ID...None.

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