Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Polson, MT

FXUS65 KMSO 070856 AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 156 AM MST Sat Dec 7 2024

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Wintry mix this morning through this evening, then a Pacific cold front will bring breezy winds and moderate snow showers tonight through Monday.

- The public should be VERY careful when traveling, especially in "shady" areas on Saturday where black ice could catch you off guard! Air temperatures could rise above freezing, but black ice will still be a threat.

Strong cold pools and inversions remain in the valleys across the Northern Rockies this morning. Though freezing fog isn't as dense and widespread as previous days, travels should still use caution, as some locations are experiencing patchy dense fog and slick spots across the region.

The higher impact in the near term will be transitioning from fog to a wintry mix, particularly across northwest Montana where there is a strong probability for light freezing rain. Light freezing drizzle is expected by sunrise this morning, but the more persistent precipitation is likely to start by mid morning (around 10am) across northern Lincoln and Flathead counties.
There is around a 40 percent Probability that 0.01-0.05" of ice is possible by the noon hour, and is likely to continue through this evening in these locations. While the chances are low (10%), locations along and north of Highway 2 in Lincoln county could see freezing rain amounts between a tenth to two tenths of an inch.
Due to this potential scenario, the Winter Storm Warning remains in place. All other areas should see more snow, with a mix of drizzle and sleet.

As the moisture plum progresses south and east during the evening and overnight, the threat for a wintry mix rises for the rest of western Montana and north-central Idaho. The chances for freezing rain are much lower in these areas, though the threat for a mix of snow/freezing drizzle/sleet is enough to where caution is needed for scattered icy roads.

Once the Pacific cold front pushes through Sunday morning, cold air aloft will alleviate any threat for freezing rain, allowing for all precipitation to turn to snow. The mountains and mountain passes will still receive the bulk of the snow accumulations (4 to 7 inches). Though the newer high resolution model runs are indicating a potential for transitory snow bands or stronger showers developing through the day Sunday, into Monday. In this case, the valleys of western Montana and north-central Idaho could see more than a trace to one half inch of snow, that is expected.
So keep any eye out for future forecast updates and social media posts.

A moist northwesterly flow pattern will setup up over the region through Tuesday, that will keep scattered snow showers in the forecast for the mountains and valleys. Only minimal to no impacts are expected at this time.

A high amplitude ridge (meaning it will extend from California all the way north into western Canada) will develop and bring more stable conditions late Tuesday and Wednesday. There will be a chance that fog and low clouds could form.

Around 70 percent of the ensembles depict a cold trough passage by next Thursday or Friday. This could bring another round of wintry precipitation to the region.
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