Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Keyport, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Showers today with a trough moving through. Will also see convergence zone activity in the central sound with a chance of thunderstorms too this afternoon.
Temps only in the 50s to lower 60s today. 33

Previous discussion...This morning's trough is beginning to move onshore, with a weak cold front draping along in southern WA/OR.
A surface trough also sits just east of the Cascades and is acting as a post-frontal boundary.

Radar remains active with several bands of showers moving northeastward towards the Canadian border. The strongest of these showers was localed just offshore of Grays Harbor County. Cooler air aloft associated with the trough has helped to destabilize the atmosphere somewhat for the potential for afternoon convection (in the form of thunderstorms). Instability is expected to increase up to 200 J/kg through the late morning and afternoon. As the trough digs southward across western WA this afternoon, the positive vorticity advection should help to aid in afternoon/evening convection across our region. The two ares the HRRR were pinging for ingredients was the south Puget Sound area, and up near Bellingham. Some small graupel and gusty winds may accompany the strongest storms, but otherwise no severe storms are expected. The convection later today may organized into a convergence zone that continues into the overnight. Highs Saturday will climb into the low 60s for most lowland spots.

Showers are expected to continue Sunday morning and start to taper back as a break in between systems (late Sunday morning through Sunday night). The cool air associated with the trough will drop snow levels just north of 3,000 ft (which will mix some of the precipitation that falls). Light snowfall accumulations are possible with the system passing through today in the Cascades (and to a weaker extent the Olympics).

Monday will see an organized frontal system sweep across western WA. The best chance of thunder will be up in the Neah Bay area into the waters (late Monday afternoon/evening).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Late Tuesday through the rest of the work week is expected to be drier (though not shower- free at times due broad troughing over the Pacific). Most models favor wet/dry pattern to continue through the end of the work week. Temperatures are expected to slowly climb through the week, with a couple spots in the Southwest Interior expected to hit around or close to 70 next Saturday.

HPR

AVIATION
Upper level trough over the area today will shift east tonight. Weak upper level ridge building offshore Sunday.
Southwesterly flow aloft becoming westerly this morning and northwesterly tonight. In the lower level increasing onshore flow with low level convergence over the Puget Sound area into this evening.

Generally MVFR ceilings this morning. Convergence developing over the Central Puget Sound with IFR ceilings at times this morning becoming more prevalent this afternoon. Ceilings in the Central Puget Sound lifting to MVFR tonight. Outside of the Central Puget Sound ceilings improving to low end VFR later this afternoon lowering back down to MVFR tonight.

KSEA.. MVFR ceilings this morning with IFR at times. IFR ceilings late morning through the afternoon hours. Ceilings lifting back up to MVFR this evening into Sunday morning. Light winds this morning could turn briefly north less than 5 knots. Winds becoming southwest 4 to 8 knots this afternoon and 10 to 15 knots tonight.
Felton

MARINE
Weak front dissipating over the waters this morning. Surface high pressure will rebuild over the coastal waters tonight into Sunday. The next frontal system will arrive on Monday. Another system will follow later Tuesday. High pressure will build over the area Wednesday.

Gale warning for the Central and Eastern Strait beginning this afternoon and continuing through tonight. Small craft advisory winds for the remainder of the waters late this afternoon through Sunday morning with the exception of the Puget Sound where converging winds will keep speeds 20 knots or less. Winds easing all waters later Sunday into MOnday.

Seas building to near 10 feet over the coastal waters Monday night into Tuesday night behind the system moving through the waters Monday. Felton

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm- West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday for Admiralty Inlet.