Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Skykomish, WA
December 5, 2023 7:05 AM PST (15:05 UTC)
Sunrise 7:30AM Sunset 4:13PM Moonrise 12:00AM Moonset 1:03PM
PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 207 Am Pst Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am pst early this morning...
Today..S wind 15 to 25 kt becoming to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Rain.
Tonight..SE wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Wed..N wind to 10 kt becoming nw in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Wed night..SW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..SW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am pst early this morning...
Today..S wind 15 to 25 kt becoming to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Rain.
Tonight..SE wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Wed..N wind to 10 kt becoming nw in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Wed night..SW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..SW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
PZZ100 207 Am Pst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A strong cold front continues to move onshore this morning but will stall over western washington into tonight as additional waves of low pressure ride northward along the boundary. While winds will ease through today, seas will remain above advisory levels. A weaker system looks to move over the area waters Thursday before high pressure builds over the area Friday.
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A strong cold front continues to move onshore this morning but will stall over western washington into tonight as additional waves of low pressure ride northward along the boundary. While winds will ease through today, seas will remain above advisory levels. A weaker system looks to move over the area waters Thursday before high pressure builds over the area Friday.
Area Discussion for - Spokane, WA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KOTX 051200 AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 400 AM PST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
Mild and wet weather will be in place through Wednesday with a significant snow melt expected in the valleys and potential for minor flooding issues. Cooler temperatures return Thursday into next weekend with several opportunities for snow.
DISCUSSION
...MILD WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AREAS OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Today - Wednesday night: The atmospheric river has arrived in the Pac NW and effects are starting to be felt. The 00Z balloon data was indicating snow levels already near 8000 feet around Spokane. Looking at the 1AM observations, this is supported by several mountain observations such as Sherman Pass which was reporting a current temperature of 41F. We do still have some linger cold pockets with air temperature near 32F including the Methow Valley, Republic, Priest Lake, and around Bonners Ferry. A combination of spotter reports, CAMS, and airport sensors suggest precipitation is mainly falling as wet snow or cold rain so forecast has been updated to remove freezing rain and keep a rain-snow mix into Tuesday morning. Outside these areas, p-type will be all rain.
The one caveat is right in Colville to Addy on US395. Temperatures at the Colville airport are sitting at 30F. Tough to tell on the cams if this is rain or freezing rain but given the temperature on the observations, did add up to a tenth of an inch of ice with freezing rain for Tuesday morning.
Warm southeast winds have developed from the L-C Valley and across the Palouse and are slowly expanding northward. 1AM temperatures are running in the upper 40s to lower 50s and just in the last hour, Spokane jumped to 45F. Look for these mild temperatures to continue to expand northward into the valleys of NE WA and N ID.
The warmer temperatures will have a more difficult time scrubbing out the cooler air in the lee of the Cascades due to weaker winds and some damming. High temperatures look to only warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Local wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in the foothills of the Blue Mountains and around Alpowa Summit impacting Hwy 12 near Pomeroy.
The axis of precipitation will remain draped across the Inland Northwest in a southwest to northeast orientation and waver slightly north to south over the next 48 hours. There remains moderate to high confidence that the Cascade Crest, rising terrain of the Northeastern WA, and North Idaho will receive the brunt of this precip event with amounts measured in inches. Probabilities for 48 hour totals in excess of an inch are now near 100%. Dialing this up to 2 inches, probabilities between Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry remain high and around 80% but lower near 40% along the Pend Oreille River Valley between Newport and Ione. Numerous hi res models continue to support over an inch of rain falling across the Upper Basin between Spokane and Wilbur and heavier amounts into the rising terrain north of the Columbia-Spokane Rivers.
Persistent low-level winds of 30-40kts off the surface will add strong orographic component to this rising terrain and will not rule out local areas closer 2 inches or more. Technically, the probabilities for an inch are 10-20% higher at Wilbur and Davenport than downtown Spokane. Shadowing in the lee of the Cascades will lead to a rapid drop off in rainfall amounts closer to half an inch or less. This has also been the case for much of the Palouse and L-C Valley due to the placement of the moisture axis further north and thinking dropping the flood watches earlier today still seems valid.
If curious in potential rainfall amounts, we are forecasting 1.5-3" of rainfall for North Idaho (Coeur D Alene northward) and Northeastern Washington. 0.8-1.50" across the Upper Basin mainly north of I-90 and into the Central Panhandle Mountains. Amounts decrease near 0.50" or less for the Palouse, L-C Valley, Camas Prairie and into the foothills of the Blue Mountains. Similar amounts of less than 0.50" are expected in the lee of the Cascades along the Hwy 97 corridor.
The Cascade Crest will receive a soaking intercepting the core axis of the atmospheric river. Many areas will be in the 3-5" range near the immediate crest; Slop over into the upper river valleys will be a fraction of this but still in the 1-2 inch range including Lake Wenatchee, Trinity, and Mazama.
Flooding of low lying areas and/or urban areas with poor drainage will be a strong possibility. Streams, creeks and rivers will experience some degree of rises. River models on this side of the Cascades are not forecasting any main stem rivers to flood.
Something else to consider, an additional 0.30-0.80" of liquid is stored on the ground from the weekend snowfall and we do anticipate this to melt off with forecast temperatures remaining above freezing through Thursday. A few record warm low temperature records will be in jeopardy Wednesday morning including Omak (40F) and Spokane (43F).
A cold front will sweep through Wednesday night bringing an end to the precipitation and ushering much cooler temperatures however, delayed runoff and any ongoing flooding issues will likely linger well into Thursday. /sb
Thursday through Monday: Snow levels decrease from 8-10 kft Tuesday to 2.5-3.5 kft Thursday with an incoming weak wave. The best chance for accumulating snow is the mountain passes. Lowland locations still look warm enough for a very light rain/snow mix w/minimal impacts. Here are the probabilities for 4, 8, and 12 inches of snow for the passes from 4 AM Thu - 4 AM Fri (which have trended down a few percentage points from the last run):
-Today's National Blend run: Stevens: 75%, 40%, 15% Lookout: 60%, 20%, 3%
Ensembles suggest an AR will be directed at the Pacific NW this weekend. Lot of details need to be ironed out, but valley snow remains on the table. Additional chances for winter precipitation come again early next week.
/db
AVIATION
12Z TAFs: Warm frontal winds along and ahead of our next round of precipitation will produce low level wind shear across north Idaho and northeast Washington into Tuesday morning. This includes smaller airports like Deer Park, Colville, Sandpoint, and Kellogg.
Otherwise, an axis of subtropical moisture draped across the Inland Northwest will result in persistent rain for North Idaho and Eastern WA. Pullman and Lewiston will be south of the main precipitation axis and have the greatest probabilities for several hours of dry conditions and VFR skies. For all other terminals, persistent low clouds producing IFR to MVFR conditions are likely as rain continues to feed into an already saturated boundary layer.
There are several cold pockets lingering across our northern mountain valleys. This includes Winthrop, Republic, Colville, Priest Lake, and Bonners Ferry. Pilots should be prepared for cold rain with temperatures near freezing until 18z Tuesday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence for exact visibility and ceiling height per each TAF forecast carries low confidence. The combination of rain and breezy southeast winds will help disperse low clouds at times but it will not take much for conditions to lower in the absence of these features. Also observing on and off LIFR fog around Moses Lake to Ephrata this morning which could remain an issue until the cooler air can get scrubbed out in the lee of the Cascades. When and if this occurs carries low confidence. /sb
Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 48 43 48 34 41 28 / 100 80 90 90 70 50 Coeur d'Alene 47 41 47 34 40 29 / 100 80 90 100 70 60 Pullman 53 41 48 35 41 29 / 80 70 70 100 70 70 Lewiston 58 43 54 40 48 34 / 50 40 50 90 60 60 Colville 41 39 44 28 38 23 / 100 100 90 90 70 50 Sandpoint 45 41 44 34 38 29 / 100 100 100 100 90 70 Kellogg 48 40 48 37 38 31 / 90 80 80 100 90 80 Moses Lake 46 45 49 33 45 27 / 100 80 80 50 20 20 Wenatchee 41 40 43 34 41 30 / 90 80 80 50 30 20 Omak 42 40 44 32 40 27 / 90 60 80 60 30 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Northern Panhandle.
WA...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Northeast Mountains- Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.
Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Central Chelan County- Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 400 AM PST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
Mild and wet weather will be in place through Wednesday with a significant snow melt expected in the valleys and potential for minor flooding issues. Cooler temperatures return Thursday into next weekend with several opportunities for snow.
DISCUSSION
...MILD WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AREAS OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Today - Wednesday night: The atmospheric river has arrived in the Pac NW and effects are starting to be felt. The 00Z balloon data was indicating snow levels already near 8000 feet around Spokane. Looking at the 1AM observations, this is supported by several mountain observations such as Sherman Pass which was reporting a current temperature of 41F. We do still have some linger cold pockets with air temperature near 32F including the Methow Valley, Republic, Priest Lake, and around Bonners Ferry. A combination of spotter reports, CAMS, and airport sensors suggest precipitation is mainly falling as wet snow or cold rain so forecast has been updated to remove freezing rain and keep a rain-snow mix into Tuesday morning. Outside these areas, p-type will be all rain.
The one caveat is right in Colville to Addy on US395. Temperatures at the Colville airport are sitting at 30F. Tough to tell on the cams if this is rain or freezing rain but given the temperature on the observations, did add up to a tenth of an inch of ice with freezing rain for Tuesday morning.
Warm southeast winds have developed from the L-C Valley and across the Palouse and are slowly expanding northward. 1AM temperatures are running in the upper 40s to lower 50s and just in the last hour, Spokane jumped to 45F. Look for these mild temperatures to continue to expand northward into the valleys of NE WA and N ID.
The warmer temperatures will have a more difficult time scrubbing out the cooler air in the lee of the Cascades due to weaker winds and some damming. High temperatures look to only warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Local wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in the foothills of the Blue Mountains and around Alpowa Summit impacting Hwy 12 near Pomeroy.
The axis of precipitation will remain draped across the Inland Northwest in a southwest to northeast orientation and waver slightly north to south over the next 48 hours. There remains moderate to high confidence that the Cascade Crest, rising terrain of the Northeastern WA, and North Idaho will receive the brunt of this precip event with amounts measured in inches. Probabilities for 48 hour totals in excess of an inch are now near 100%. Dialing this up to 2 inches, probabilities between Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry remain high and around 80% but lower near 40% along the Pend Oreille River Valley between Newport and Ione. Numerous hi res models continue to support over an inch of rain falling across the Upper Basin between Spokane and Wilbur and heavier amounts into the rising terrain north of the Columbia-Spokane Rivers.
Persistent low-level winds of 30-40kts off the surface will add strong orographic component to this rising terrain and will not rule out local areas closer 2 inches or more. Technically, the probabilities for an inch are 10-20% higher at Wilbur and Davenport than downtown Spokane. Shadowing in the lee of the Cascades will lead to a rapid drop off in rainfall amounts closer to half an inch or less. This has also been the case for much of the Palouse and L-C Valley due to the placement of the moisture axis further north and thinking dropping the flood watches earlier today still seems valid.
If curious in potential rainfall amounts, we are forecasting 1.5-3" of rainfall for North Idaho (Coeur D Alene northward) and Northeastern Washington. 0.8-1.50" across the Upper Basin mainly north of I-90 and into the Central Panhandle Mountains. Amounts decrease near 0.50" or less for the Palouse, L-C Valley, Camas Prairie and into the foothills of the Blue Mountains. Similar amounts of less than 0.50" are expected in the lee of the Cascades along the Hwy 97 corridor.
The Cascade Crest will receive a soaking intercepting the core axis of the atmospheric river. Many areas will be in the 3-5" range near the immediate crest; Slop over into the upper river valleys will be a fraction of this but still in the 1-2 inch range including Lake Wenatchee, Trinity, and Mazama.
Flooding of low lying areas and/or urban areas with poor drainage will be a strong possibility. Streams, creeks and rivers will experience some degree of rises. River models on this side of the Cascades are not forecasting any main stem rivers to flood.
Something else to consider, an additional 0.30-0.80" of liquid is stored on the ground from the weekend snowfall and we do anticipate this to melt off with forecast temperatures remaining above freezing through Thursday. A few record warm low temperature records will be in jeopardy Wednesday morning including Omak (40F) and Spokane (43F).
A cold front will sweep through Wednesday night bringing an end to the precipitation and ushering much cooler temperatures however, delayed runoff and any ongoing flooding issues will likely linger well into Thursday. /sb
Thursday through Monday: Snow levels decrease from 8-10 kft Tuesday to 2.5-3.5 kft Thursday with an incoming weak wave. The best chance for accumulating snow is the mountain passes. Lowland locations still look warm enough for a very light rain/snow mix w/minimal impacts. Here are the probabilities for 4, 8, and 12 inches of snow for the passes from 4 AM Thu - 4 AM Fri (which have trended down a few percentage points from the last run):
-Today's National Blend run: Stevens: 75%, 40%, 15% Lookout: 60%, 20%, 3%
Ensembles suggest an AR will be directed at the Pacific NW this weekend. Lot of details need to be ironed out, but valley snow remains on the table. Additional chances for winter precipitation come again early next week.
/db
AVIATION
12Z TAFs: Warm frontal winds along and ahead of our next round of precipitation will produce low level wind shear across north Idaho and northeast Washington into Tuesday morning. This includes smaller airports like Deer Park, Colville, Sandpoint, and Kellogg.
Otherwise, an axis of subtropical moisture draped across the Inland Northwest will result in persistent rain for North Idaho and Eastern WA. Pullman and Lewiston will be south of the main precipitation axis and have the greatest probabilities for several hours of dry conditions and VFR skies. For all other terminals, persistent low clouds producing IFR to MVFR conditions are likely as rain continues to feed into an already saturated boundary layer.
There are several cold pockets lingering across our northern mountain valleys. This includes Winthrop, Republic, Colville, Priest Lake, and Bonners Ferry. Pilots should be prepared for cold rain with temperatures near freezing until 18z Tuesday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence for exact visibility and ceiling height per each TAF forecast carries low confidence. The combination of rain and breezy southeast winds will help disperse low clouds at times but it will not take much for conditions to lower in the absence of these features. Also observing on and off LIFR fog around Moses Lake to Ephrata this morning which could remain an issue until the cooler air can get scrubbed out in the lee of the Cascades. When and if this occurs carries low confidence. /sb
Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 48 43 48 34 41 28 / 100 80 90 90 70 50 Coeur d'Alene 47 41 47 34 40 29 / 100 80 90 100 70 60 Pullman 53 41 48 35 41 29 / 80 70 70 100 70 70 Lewiston 58 43 54 40 48 34 / 50 40 50 90 60 60 Colville 41 39 44 28 38 23 / 100 100 90 90 70 50 Sandpoint 45 41 44 34 38 29 / 100 100 100 100 90 70 Kellogg 48 40 48 37 38 31 / 90 80 80 100 90 80 Moses Lake 46 45 49 33 45 27 / 100 80 80 50 20 20 Wenatchee 41 40 43 34 41 30 / 90 80 80 50 30 20 Omak 42 40 44 32 40 27 / 90 60 80 60 30 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Northern Panhandle.
WA...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Northeast Mountains- Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.
Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Central Chelan County- Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Wind History from SMP
(wind in knots)Marysville
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:26 AM PST 2.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:42 AM PST Sunrise
Tue -- 11:38 AM PST 10.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:08 PM PST Moonset
Tue -- 04:16 PM PST Sunset
Tue -- 06:50 PM PST 4.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:20 PM PST 6.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:26 AM PST 2.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:42 AM PST Sunrise
Tue -- 11:38 AM PST 10.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:08 PM PST Moonset
Tue -- 04:16 PM PST Sunset
Tue -- 06:50 PM PST 4.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:20 PM PST 6.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Marysville, Quilceda Creek, Washington, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 5.9 |
| 1 am |
| 5 |
| 2 am |
| 3.9 |
| 3 am |
| 3 |
| 4 am |
| 2.4 |
| 5 am |
| 2.4 |
| 6 am |
| 3.3 |
| 7 am |
| 4.7 |
| 8 am |
| 6.5 |
| 9 am |
| 8.4 |
| 10 am |
| 9.9 |
| 11 am |
| 10.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 10.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 10.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 9.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 7.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 6.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 5.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 4.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 5.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 6.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 6.8 |
Everett
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:56 AM PST 2.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:42 AM PST Sunrise
Tue -- 11:29 AM PST 11.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:08 PM PST Moonset
Tue -- 04:16 PM PST Sunset
Tue -- 06:20 PM PST 5.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:11 PM PST 7.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:56 AM PST 2.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:42 AM PST Sunrise
Tue -- 11:29 AM PST 11.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:08 PM PST Moonset
Tue -- 04:16 PM PST Sunset
Tue -- 06:20 PM PST 5.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:11 PM PST 7.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Everett, Washington, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 5.9 |
| 1 am |
| 4.9 |
| 2 am |
| 3.8 |
| 3 am |
| 2.9 |
| 4 am |
| 2.6 |
| 5 am |
| 3 |
| 6 am |
| 4.1 |
| 7 am |
| 5.6 |
| 8 am |
| 7.4 |
| 9 am |
| 9.2 |
| 10 am |
| 10.5 |
| 11 am |
| 11.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 11.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 10.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 9.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 7.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 6.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 5.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 5 |
| 7 pm |
| 5.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 5.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 6.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 6.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 7.1 |
Seattle/Tacoma, WA,
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