Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Skykomish, WA

SYNOPSIS
Broad ridge pattern will bring a warming, dry trend over the region. Wildfire smoke will bring degraded air quality for the Inland Northwest. Smoke could reduce daily highs a few degrees.

DISCUSSION
Monday through Thursday: An upper trough swinging through the region overnight will exit into Montana this morning. As this trough exits a dry northwest flow pattern develops over the region followed by high pressure gradually building into Tuesday and Wednesday and lingering into Thursday. This will allow for a warming trend with low relative humidity each day. Given the north- northwest flow today more rounds of smoke will impact the region from regional wildfires, including smoke coming down from British Columbia. Then with lighter winds and building high pressure the smoke issues will likely continue. Several air quality agencies have issued Air Quality Alerts for several counties across Central and Eastern Washington and north Idaho.
Current temperature forecasts are from the National Blend of Models. Depending on amount of smoke cover, temperatures could not reach potential and end up cooler than forecast.

Friday through Sunday: Ensemble means show high pressure beginning to flatten late in the week, but with dry air persisting. The zonal flow and dry air mass will bring an uptick in wind speeds with ECMWF ensembles showing 15-25 MPH gusts across Eastern Washington each day, and 25-35 MPH through the Cascade gaps. This has the potential to bring elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. JW

AVIATION
12z TAFs: MVFR conditions have lead into the morning for terminals impacted from smoke due to area wildfires, with VFR elsewhere. Smoke will continue to bring periods of MVFR, and even localized IFR, visibilities to KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KMWH and possibly KEAT for Monday. Surface winds will transition to northerly during the mid to late morning hours and remain in place throughout the day, becoming calm overnight for some.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high confidence in winds. Moderate confidence for smoke impacts bringing MVFR to IFR visibilities for area TAF sites.

----------------------- Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
Spokane 80 50 86 53 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 79 51 85 54 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 76 44 83 47 88 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 82 54 89 58 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 82 42 87 46 92 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 77 46 83 49 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 75 49 81 52 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 83 52 89 54 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 84 60 90 64 95 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 85 54 91 58 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Air Quality Alert until 5 PM PDT Friday for Asotin, Chelan, Douglas, Ferry, Okanogan, Pend Oreille, and Stevens Counties.

ID...Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT this morning for Boundary, Bonner, Benewah, Clearwater, Idaho, Kootenai, Latah, Lewis, and Nez Perce, and Shoshone Counties