Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Skykomish, WA

SYNOPSIS
A prolonged period of above normal temperatures will continue into the middle of May. Conditions will be dry. Winds will be gusty Friday and again Sunday, especially in Central Washington.

DISCUSSION
Today through Tuesday night: Model ensembles are in good agreement with the longwave pattern. It features a longwave ridge residing over the West with a pair of shortwave disturbance pushing through across the Northwest. The first disturbance moves through later today with a cold front passage around mid to late afternoon. Mid to high level clouds will increase early in the day and then clear out as a cold front sweep across between 1:00 and 4:00 PM in the afternoon. Low levels of the atmosphere will remain too dry for any precipitation with this front. Winds will hoever be on the increase in the afternoon. The pressure gradient will be tighter across the Cascades where stronger gusts up to 30-40 mph with a near certainty of gusts greater than 30 mph occurring around Wenatchee to Chelan out onto the Waterville Plateau. Gusts of up to 40 mph will be more localized and largely reveserved for exposed ridges along the east slopes of the Cascade Mountains, but also will see gusts of this magnitude across the Waterville Plateay as well. There is a 40-60% chance for winds of 25-35 mph occurring across the Moses Lake Area and Columbia Basin into the West Plains an on the Palouse. Strong cross winds may make driving a little difficult especially for high profile vehicles.
These winds across any recently worked fields may also result in patchy blowing dust. Choppy water can also be expected across area lakes and will pose a risk of capsizing for anyone on any small crafts such as a canoe, kayak, or paddle board. Make sure to be water safe and wear those life jackets.

The next shortwave disturbance then pushes through Sunday afternoon- evening. It will bring another surge of westerly winds through the Cascades where similar magnitude of winds in the 30-40 mph range is expected. As with the cold front today, there will be an increase in mid to high level cloud cover along the front, but not enough moisture lower down for any precipitation. Both of these frontal systems will be dry and any dry grass present will be susceptible for rapid fire spread. Good news is that we are still a bit early in the season for mush receptive fuels to carry fire.

Temperatures will remain above normal and warm. There will be a signifcant bump up in our temperatures on Tuesday when widespread 80 degree temperatures are expected. Tuesday may be the warmest day of next week, but there is a lot of uncertainty thereafter by the middle part of next week.

Wednesday through Friday: Model ensembles diverge much more by the time we get into the middle of next week. Models are in fairly good agreement with a trough of lower pressure digging across the eastern Pacific for Tuesday; however, there are differences with the ensemble cluster of how much of this energy will swing through around Wednesday. Almost half of the ECMFW Ensemble members pushes across another fairly robust cold front with a third round of gusty westerly winds. They also reflect more in the way of moisture along the front compared to these next two drier cold fronts we're set to see move through. Any rain we see doesn't look to be particularly significant but it would at least be something. Then there is a good chunk of the GEFS ensemble members that digs most of the energy with the trough and closes off a low pressure circulation well off of the Calfornia coastline. This scenario keeps the potential for our very warm temperatures to continue and may even see some 90s for our warmer spots. Minor to localized moderate HeatRisk will be possible for this Tuesday/Wednesday period depending how quickly energy off of the Pacific next week weakens the ridge in place. /SVH

AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A dry cold front will sweep through the region Friday afternoon and Friday evening bringing increased westerly winds. There is a chance for blowing dust in the late afternoon and evening for KEPH-KMWH as gusts increase to around 25-30 kt which may bring brief visibility restrictions. Mid to high level clouds will increase overnight but will clear out around 21-23z for KEAT- KMWH and 23-02z for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW-KLWS as the front passes through.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions for all TAF sites except KMWH Friday afternoon as gusty winds may bring blowing dust. /SVH

----------------------- Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
Spokane 73 46 75 48 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 69 44 72 47 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 68 43 70 46 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 75 47 75 49 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 75 43 79 46 80 45 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 68 44 73 47 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 69 43 72 46 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 78 45 78 50 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 75 49 80 55 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 80 46 81 54 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
ID...None.