Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grand Marais, MN
July 3, 2024 1:25 AM EDT (05:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 10:03 PM Moonrise 2:29 AM Moonset 7:38 PM |
LSZ140 1137 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 24 2024
.an area of Thunderstorms approaching western lake superior - .
the areas affected include - . Grand marais to taconite harbor mn - . Grand portage to grand marais mn - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland - . Port wing to sand island wi - . Sand island to bayfield wi - . Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn - . Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn - .
at 1135 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This area of Thunderstorms was located along a line extending from 16 nm north of tofte safe harbor to 12 nm west of sugar loaf cove to near silver bay marina and ore dock to 11 nm northwest of castle danger, moving east at 50 knots.
locations impacted include - . Grand portage marina, castle danger, sugar loaf cove, horseshoe bay and safe harbor, tofte safe harbor, twin points safe harbor, devils island, tofte, taconite harbor, beaver bay, mouth of the cross river, grand marais harbor, york island, split rock lighthouse, silver bay marina and ore dock, rocky island, and sand island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 33 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
&&
a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 am cdt for northwestern wisconsin - .and the adjacent waters of lake superior.
lat - .lon 4799 8941 4793 8945 4787 8964 4751 8988 4729 9020 4697 9083 4712 9153 4744 9112 4773 9055 4791 8983 4801 8964
the areas affected include - . Grand marais to taconite harbor mn - . Grand portage to grand marais mn - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland - . Port wing to sand island wi - . Sand island to bayfield wi - . Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn - . Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn - .
at 1135 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This area of Thunderstorms was located along a line extending from 16 nm north of tofte safe harbor to 12 nm west of sugar loaf cove to near silver bay marina and ore dock to 11 nm northwest of castle danger, moving east at 50 knots.
locations impacted include - . Grand portage marina, castle danger, sugar loaf cove, horseshoe bay and safe harbor, tofte safe harbor, twin points safe harbor, devils island, tofte, taconite harbor, beaver bay, mouth of the cross river, grand marais harbor, york island, split rock lighthouse, silver bay marina and ore dock, rocky island, and sand island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 33 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
&&
a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 am cdt for northwestern wisconsin - .and the adjacent waters of lake superior.
lat - .lon 4799 8941 4793 8945 4787 8964 4751 8988 4729 9020 4697 9083 4712 9153 4744 9112 4773 9055 4791 8983 4801 8964
LSZ100
No data
No data
FXUS63 KDLH 022324 AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 624 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Best chances (30-40%) for scattered strong thunderstorms from 6-11 PM this evening are in the Iron Range, Borderlands and Arrowhead of northern Minnesota. Severe storms are not expected.
- Next chance for widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is Thursday night into Friday morning over inland northwest Wisconsin.
- Near-normal temperatures throughout the forecast period.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A cold front moves from west to east over the Northland this afternoon and evening. Afternoon clearing behind widespread rainfall this morning helped to initiate isolated showers so far this afternoon in north-central Minnesota. Mean storm motion will be east-northeastward as southwesterly low-level winds veer westerly in the mid to upper-levels this evening. Model forecast soundings support high-res cam guidance of scattered strong thunderstorms peaking in coverage from 6-11 PM this evening as mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and CAPE of 600-800 J/kg sustain updrafts long enough to produce pea to maybe penny size hail later today. Elevated winds around 30-35 knots may create gusts of 40-45 mph with any collapsing storms in this same time period. The most favored potential is from Grand Rapids to Two Harbors northward in northeast Minnesota.
The mid-level trough passes by the Northland after Midnight tonight to leave near-normal temperatures in the mid-70s to around 80 and gusty westerly winds behind for Wednesday. A secondary trailing backdoor cold front drops southward Wednesday afternoon and supports another chance of general thunderstorms in far northern Minnesota for Wednesday afternoon and evening again.
Those near-normal upper-70 temperatures last into the Independence Day holiday on Thursday, as a low pressure in the Lower Midwest drapes a warm front immediately south of the region. This area of mid-level divergence with building instability axis from north-central MN into inland northwest Wisconsin is most likely to create concerns for scattered daytime general to strong thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.
Deepening on where the warm front sets up the northward extend near the South Shore Thursday night, locally heavy rainfall up to a couple of inches of rainfall may (30-40% chance) setup for inland northwest Wisconsin. The more favored solution though is this rainfall being closer to a half inch to one inch though for the inland parts of northwest Wisconsin through Friday morning as the low pressure drifts eastward.
A trough centered in the Central Canadian Prairies deepens Friday into Saturday morning as it drops southeastward into the northern US Plains by Saturday evening. Any speed up in this trough could create concerns for strong thunderstorms over parts of northern Minnesota for Saturday evening and overnight and ending Sunday morning. Near-normal temperatures with periodic thunderstorm chances last into the first part of next week.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
IFR/MVFR ceilings still envelope portions of the Northland this evening but a cold front moving in from the west will bringing some drier air. Out ahead of this front we do have a few storms across northern MN and some drizzle/light rain entering NW WI. The window for storms is limited and will be diminishing through the overnight hours. Some fog may develop before sunrise but is not expected to linger long. Tomorrow will sport some breezy winds out of the west with some isolated storms possible across northern MN.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Gusty southerly winds from the Apostles eastward to Saxon Harbor this afternoon further decrease into the evening before shifting southwesterly for Wednesday. Gusty southwesterly winds forecast to 25 knots near and north of Grand Marais tomorrow afternoon resulted in a Small Craft Advisory being issued.
Lighter easterly winds are likely Thursday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 624 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Best chances (30-40%) for scattered strong thunderstorms from 6-11 PM this evening are in the Iron Range, Borderlands and Arrowhead of northern Minnesota. Severe storms are not expected.
- Next chance for widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is Thursday night into Friday morning over inland northwest Wisconsin.
- Near-normal temperatures throughout the forecast period.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A cold front moves from west to east over the Northland this afternoon and evening. Afternoon clearing behind widespread rainfall this morning helped to initiate isolated showers so far this afternoon in north-central Minnesota. Mean storm motion will be east-northeastward as southwesterly low-level winds veer westerly in the mid to upper-levels this evening. Model forecast soundings support high-res cam guidance of scattered strong thunderstorms peaking in coverage from 6-11 PM this evening as mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and CAPE of 600-800 J/kg sustain updrafts long enough to produce pea to maybe penny size hail later today. Elevated winds around 30-35 knots may create gusts of 40-45 mph with any collapsing storms in this same time period. The most favored potential is from Grand Rapids to Two Harbors northward in northeast Minnesota.
The mid-level trough passes by the Northland after Midnight tonight to leave near-normal temperatures in the mid-70s to around 80 and gusty westerly winds behind for Wednesday. A secondary trailing backdoor cold front drops southward Wednesday afternoon and supports another chance of general thunderstorms in far northern Minnesota for Wednesday afternoon and evening again.
Those near-normal upper-70 temperatures last into the Independence Day holiday on Thursday, as a low pressure in the Lower Midwest drapes a warm front immediately south of the region. This area of mid-level divergence with building instability axis from north-central MN into inland northwest Wisconsin is most likely to create concerns for scattered daytime general to strong thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.
Deepening on where the warm front sets up the northward extend near the South Shore Thursday night, locally heavy rainfall up to a couple of inches of rainfall may (30-40% chance) setup for inland northwest Wisconsin. The more favored solution though is this rainfall being closer to a half inch to one inch though for the inland parts of northwest Wisconsin through Friday morning as the low pressure drifts eastward.
A trough centered in the Central Canadian Prairies deepens Friday into Saturday morning as it drops southeastward into the northern US Plains by Saturday evening. Any speed up in this trough could create concerns for strong thunderstorms over parts of northern Minnesota for Saturday evening and overnight and ending Sunday morning. Near-normal temperatures with periodic thunderstorm chances last into the first part of next week.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
IFR/MVFR ceilings still envelope portions of the Northland this evening but a cold front moving in from the west will bringing some drier air. Out ahead of this front we do have a few storms across northern MN and some drizzle/light rain entering NW WI. The window for storms is limited and will be diminishing through the overnight hours. Some fog may develop before sunrise but is not expected to linger long. Tomorrow will sport some breezy winds out of the west with some isolated storms possible across northern MN.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Gusty southerly winds from the Apostles eastward to Saxon Harbor this afternoon further decrease into the evening before shifting southwesterly for Wednesday. Gusty southwesterly winds forecast to 25 knots near and north of Grand Marais tomorrow afternoon resulted in a Small Craft Advisory being issued.
Lighter easterly winds are likely Thursday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KGNA
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KGNA
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KGNA
Wind History graph: GNA
(wind in knots)
Marquette, MI,
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