Tuesday, January26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hansville, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 5:02PM Tuesday January 26, 2021 12:53 AM PST (08:53 UTC) Moonrise 2:47PMMoonset 6:34AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 826 Pm Pst Mon Jan 25 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am pst Tuesday through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Tue..SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of rain in the evening then a chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..SE wind 10 to 20 kt in the morning becoming light. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft becoming less than 1 ft.
Wed night..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..S wind to 10 kt becoming se 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft.
PZZ100 826 Pm Pst Mon Jan 25 2021
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A weak surface trough will continue to dissipate over the waters tonight. A vigorous front will then approach the coast Tuesday afternoon and move through the waters Tuesday night. Low pressure will remain centered over the oregon coastal waters Wednesday and Wednesday night. Light offshore flow is expected Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hansville, WA
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location: 47.9, -122.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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FXUS66 KSEW 260440 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 840 PM PST Mon Jan 25 2021

UPDATE. The forecast is largely on track tonight-only made minor adjustments, mainly to lower precip chances a bit more overnight as well as lower snow levels a tad.

Water vapor loop this evening shows troughing over much of the western CONUS, with a rather significant area of closed low pressure upstream just south of the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, high pressure resides over W WA, with the next frontal well offshore.

Local radar imagery is still picking up on a few showers over the area. We have received reports early this afternoon and evening of small hail/graupel accompanying some of the rain showers. This is not surprising given that 500mb temps are around -35C, per SPC mesoanalysis. The upper level trough over the area will shift slowly & slightly eastward through the overnight period to try to make room for very, very brief ridging. This should help put an end to most of the shower activity overnight, tho a few nuisance showers may linger through the night.

Snow levels will take a significant tumble overnight-expected to be around 500 feet or less by daybreak Tuesday, esp east of the Olympic Peninsula. Conditions will be mostly dry as this occurs, tho it's possible any lingering showers may contain some flakes. The timing of the next storm system has not changed and should begin to approach the Coast Tuesday afternoon. Snow levels attempt to recover some as the precip moves inland but will remain below 1,000 feet. Current snowfall forecast remains reasonable at this time.

Previous discussion is included below with an updated marine and aviation section.

Kovacik

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 203 PM PST Mon Jan 25 2021/

SYNOPSIS. Western Washington will remain in a troughy pattern over much of the next 7 days. We expect to see a series of frontal systems move through the area this week. None of them are looking particularly wet, at least for Western Washington. With this pattern we expect temperatures to remain cool with highs in the mid 40s for the lowland areas. With these weather systems moving in and cooler temperatures there is a chance for snow to be falling for any precipitation occuring overnight for the rest of this week. Things will gradually warm up towards the start of next week, so expect the threat of snow in the lowlands to go away

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As expected, the clouds over much of Western Washington are scattering out slightly this afternoon. While some convective showers still remain along the coast and just off shore. These showers will taper off through the evening, as the upper level trough moves inland with a weak ridge building in behind it. As the trough moves inland scattered showers will also move into the area. These showers will scatter out Tuesday afternoon as a very brief and very weak ridge moves in. With as slightly stronger and more moist system right behind it, which will begin to impact the area Tuesday evening.

Now the difficult part about both tonight's and Tuesday night's forecast - lowland snow possibilities.

With low temperatures hovering just around freezing at the surface and slightly colder air aloft we certainly have the potential for some snow to be falling. However, because temperatures are very marginal at the surface and not much colder aloft (only a few degrees below freezing at 850 hPa), the probability of snow accumulation is low for much of the area.

For both tonight and tomorrow night the precipitation intensity is going to be very light, so any dynamic cooling occuring is going to be very minimal. Which furthers the idea that although snow may fall the surface conditions will not cool enough to allow it to accumulate in most places; particularly for tonight's system.

Additionally, we are expecting down sloping easterly winds coming out of the Cascades for the next couple of days. This does not bode well for snow potential on the east side of the Puget Sound and Northern Inland waters, as the air will remain a bit warmer. However, as the air flow reaches the Olympic Peninsula it will be forced upwards and will cool. With the topographic enhancement areas just east of the Olympics have the greatest chance for snow accumulation both tonight and Tuesday night.

In summary, we are confident that some areas of the lowlands will see some snow falling the next couple of nights. What we are not confident in are accumulation amounts, especially for the Eastern side of the Olympic Peninsula. As typically the case here in Western Washington, the higher you are in elevation the greater the chance of snow, as well as snow accumulation.

As this is a marginal event with lots of variables at play, the forecast could easily change, so check back for updates.

Butwin

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Snow levels in the long term are expected to rise back up to 1000-1500 feet starting Thursday and will continue to rise to around 2000-2500 feet by Sunday. A wetter system is in store for the weekend, which will bring some rain to the lowlands and mountain snow. Overall, this weekend system is looking to be rather mundane at this point. The overall trend for the extended is that the storms and the heaviest precipitation will be to our south.

Butwin

AVIATION. Upper level troughing across the region will generally keep flow aloft south-southwesterly into Tuesday. Current radar shows some lingering showers across the area this evening, mainly along the coast and portions of the central-northern Sound. Overall, expect shower coverage to become more isolated overnight into Tuesday, though hi-res guidance suggests some lingering showers persisting along portions of the Olympic Coast and southwest interior overnight. The snow level will remain quite low as the cold upper trough moves ashore. Offshore/easterly flow will develop on Tuesday as the next front approaches the coast. A mid level overcast cloud deck should arrive and lower ceilings Tuesday afternoon with rain and snow developing along the south coast by evening then spreading inland. Downslope off the Cascades should prevent much precip up and down the I-5 corridor but HQM- OLM could see some wintry precip Tuesday night. 19/14

KSEA . Current conditions MVFR should improve to VFR overnight. Easterly flow Tuesday and Tuesday night should keep the Seattle area mostly dry while a front moves in--this looks like a typical Hood Canal snow with only a skiff for the Seattle through Wednesday morning. Ceilings to drop back down to MVFR by Tuesday evening. 19/14

MARINE. A weakening trough will continue to dissipate across the region overnight. The flow will turn ESE on Tuesday and gales are likely for the afternoon and evening over the coastal waters. Easterlies 20-30 kt are likely down the Strait of Juan de Fuca, with a SE 20-30 kt wind for Admiralty Inlet and the northern waters. However, gradients do hint at gales developing down the Strait, so will need to keep an eye on this trend overnight. After the front passes later Tuesday night and Wednesday gradients will become light again. At times the models suggest a little Fraser outflow around Thursday and Thursday night, that is not in the forecast right now and so far cold high pressure has not been able to push down through B.C. much. Additional fronts should arrive late in the week or over the weekend.

12-16 ft seas along the coastal waters this evening will gradually subside through the day on Tuesday and hover near 10 feet, before increasing again slightly on Wednesday to 10-14 ft. 19/14

HYDROLOGY. River flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

Gale Warning from 8 AM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Grays Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.



www.weather.gov/seattle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 17 mi54 min ESE 5.1 G 8 39°F 46°F1009.8 hPa (-1.2)
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 19 mi54 min S 13 G 16 40°F 1010 hPa (-1.1)36°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 32 mi34 min S 20 G 24 40°F 1008.6 hPa33°F
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 40 mi84 min SE 6 37°F 1009 hPa34°F
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 43 mi44 min SSE 9.7 G 12 41°F 46°F1008.6 hPa37°F
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 44 mi54 min SE 4.1 G 4.1
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 45 mi54 min 35°F 48°F1011 hPa (-1.0)
PTAW1 - 9444090 - Port Angeles, WA 47 mi78 min 34°F 46°F1008.6 hPa

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Everett Snohomish County, WA17 mi61 minSSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F33°F93%1009.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPAE

Wind History from PAE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8S8S4S5S9S7S8S12S12S9S10S10S7S8S12S9S7S7S6--SE7SE6SE7SE9
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2 days agoCalmNE3E3CalmCalmSE3SE3SE4SE4S4CalmSE3S4W33CalmCalmCalmE4E634SE5SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Foulweather Bluff, Washington
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Foulweather Bluff
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:43 AM PST     10.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:34 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:42 AM PST     8.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:53 PM PST     9.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:47 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:02 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:32 PM PST     -1.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.55.87.89.310.110.39.99.38.68.188.28.699.18.77.76.14.120.1-1-10

Tide / Current Tables for Edmonds, 2.7 wsW of, Washington Current
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Edmonds
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:18 AM PST     0.24 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:58 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:34 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:58 AM PST     -0.31 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:05 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:43 PM PST     0.03 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:01 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:47 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:01 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:06 PM PST     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:19 PM PST     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.20.20.1-0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.1-000-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Ground Weather Radar Station




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