Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Forks, WA

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
An area of showers were moving north into Victoria/Whatcom and Skagit counties this afternoon with a weak surface trough,warm front. Amounts from this round again are expected to be light, with just several hundredths of an inch. The rest of western WA remains overcast through the afternoon, with most temperatures in the lowlands in the mid 50s (average for this time of year is around 47).

The atmospheric river pattern remains in place across the Pacific Northwest. A strong 300 mb jet continues to transport moisture into the region, with the nose of this jet expected to remain along the WA coast through much of the week. A frontal system with this synoptic setup will swing through the region tonight into Monday. This first system is expected to be the warmest of the systems passing through this week, with snow levels hovering around 8,000 to 9,000 ft. The rain will arrive late this evening into Monday, with the hi-res guidance showing more of a convective type mode with the showers. There is also a 20-30% chance of thunder (especially along the coast), which may produce locally heavier amounts (up to 0.25-0.50"/hr). The rain with this round will wrap up Monday evening. All set and done, this round of rain is expected to 0.50-1" of rain in the lowlands, 1-2" along the coast, and 2-3" in the mountains with potential for locally higher amounts exceeding 4". This will cause additional rises in streams and rives (see hydrology section for more details). In addition to rain, a wind advisory continues from tonight through tomorrow evening for breezy southwest winds of 25 to 30 with gusts to 45 to 55 mph. The highest wind gusts are expected along the Pacific coast, although the threat remains nil at the present time for seeing wind gusts exceed 60 mph (high wind warning threshold).

Another system with this atmospheric river will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday. This system will be cooler, as snow levels drop Tuesday night into Wednesday down to around 2,000 ft. The trickiest part of the forecast is determining how quickly the snow levels will drop. Models show more of a delay in the drop of the snow level (occurring Tuesday night/Wednesday morning).
The warm air mass may cut into the snow accumulations, and this may delay the cold winds behind the cold front bringing the snow levels down. There is still a 50% chance that Snoqualmie Pass could see over 12" of snow through Wednesday evening (and it's a 90% chance for Stevens Pass). QPF in the lowlands varies quite a bit, but the mean NBM guidance gives a 48 hour total through Wednesday night of just over an inch in the Puget Sound/Northwest Interior, to 1.6" in the south interior.
Continue to monitor the forecast as confidence increases on potential impacts with this system.

Additionally, waves are expected to increase along the coast at times Monday through Wednesday, with waves approaching 15 to 17 ft. While the periods will likely carry some of the energy to the coast, the combination of the waves heights and periods fall short of criteria for issuing a high surf advisory at this time.

High temperatures will remain above average through Tuesday, with highs remaining in the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The Tuesday system continues into Wednesday with precipitation decreasing Wednesday evening. A third system appears likely Thursday into Friday, with a similar amount of precipitation to the previous two systems. The temperatures will cool to around average with highs in the mid to upper 40s (lows dipping into the mid and upper 30s). Ensembles favor a more active weather pattern continuing into next week (although some splits in solutions).

HPR

AVIATION
Southwest to west-southwest winds aloft persist the entire TAF period and are expected to increase in strength after 12Z Monday.
Light rain will gradually come to an end across far northwestern Washington/KBLI after 23Z. Low to mid-level cloud cover will persist through the entire TAF period. After 05Z, a front will approach from the west and bring gusty winds, rain, and MVFR to IFR flight conditions to all terminal]ls.

Gusty 15kt to 25kt southerly winds are expected as the front begins to approach, beginning between 05Z-09Z Monday at most terminals.
There is high confidence (90% chance or greater) in gusts of 25kts- 35kts after 11Z Monday. However, gusts of 40kts cannot be completely ruled out.

KSEA... MVFR ceilings have lingered longer than previously anticipated and are now expected to be around until at least 03Z.
The most likely timeframe of VFR ceilings is between 03Z-06Z. Light rain is forecast to begin as a front approaches the terminal after 08Z with associated MVFR ceilings. Southerly winds increase with gusts around 25kts after 10Z. Confidence has increased to 50%-60% that gusts around 35kts will begin after 15Z-16Z and persist through the remainder of the TAF period. Gusts of 40kts cannot be completely ruled out during this time frame.

MARINE
A front traverses across the coastal waters and seas late tonight (Sunday) through Monday and bring strong winds. A Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters, the west entrance Strait of Juan de Fuca and the corridor extending from Puget Sound/Hood Canal north through the northern Salish Sea. Probabilities of the gale force winds are now 70%-80% across Puget Sound/Hood Canal through the northern Salish Sea. As for the coastal waters, probabilities of gale force winds are above 90%. Seas will also build to 18-20ft beginning late tonight through at Monday and remain elevated through the week, especially as another weather system moves through on Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY
Most rivers will continue to recede through tonight. Atmospheric river arriving Monday morning with rivers rising again by late morning. Even with the rises most of the rivers staying below flood stage Monday. Rivers going over flood stage will be the ones that will have not dropped below much below flood stage over the weekend like the Skagit, Cedar, White and Cowlitz below Mayfield Dam.

Rain easing Monday night into Tuesday before the tail end of the atmospheric river reaches the area later Tuesday into Wednesday increasing precipitation rates. This second round of precipitation will drive some rivers above flood stage with major flooding possible along the Skagit and lower reaches of the Snoqualmie.

Cooler air moving into the area Tuesday night adds some uncertainty to the river levels. Current forecasts have snow levels dropping to 2000 to 2500 feet by Wednesday morning. There is more moisture with this second surge of the atmospheric river but the cooler air will keep some of the moisture in the mountains in the form of snow. This combination makes for tricky river forecasting.

A flood watch is in effect from Monday morning through Thursday afternoon across the lowlands. Felton

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Monday for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area- Eastern Kitsap County-Eastside-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast- Island County-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal- Western Strait of Juan de Fuca-Willapa and Black Hills.

Flood Watch from Monday morning through Thursday afternoon for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Eastside- Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties- Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades- Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula- Grays Harbor County Coast-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Port Townsend Area-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca-Willapa and Black Hills.

PZ...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.