Wednesday, April21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Heron, MT

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 7:47PM Wednesday April 21, 2021 4:34 AM PDT (11:34 UTC) Moonrise 12:50PMMoonset 3:40AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Heron, MT
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location: 47.98, -116     debug


Area Discussion for - Spokane, WA
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FXUS66 KOTX 211109 AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 409 AM PDT Wed Apr 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Dry and warmer temperatures will continue today before our next round of active weather arrives tonight and Thursday. Thursday will be breezy with a chance for scattered precipitation and isolated thunderstorms. Another round of active weather with precipitation will arrive this weekend. This could be the heaviest precipitation event the region has seen in the past 7 weeks. Monday will see hit or miss showers with a much lesser chance of Tuesday. By the middle of next week another wet period awaits the Inland Northwest.

DISCUSSION. Today: A stable air mass continues to keep our region dry with a warming trend, but it's life comes to an end tonight. Temperatures peak today with afternoon highs reaching the 60s to low 70s. These continue to remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal normal. Overnight lows cool into the mid-30s to mid-40s. There will be mostly clear skies with high clouds expected to move into the region in the evening hours.

Thursday: An approaching cold front will bring the next round of active, but short lived weather. There will be accompanying widespread breezy winds and cooler temperatures, with the chance for precipitation across northeastern WA and ID Panhandle. Pre-frontal precipitation will arrive overnight in the far northern mountains. There is a chance for light rain, with possible snow in the highest terrain. The front enters Thursday with more precipitation. There is a chance for rain in far eastern WA and the Idaho Panhandle. Most will exit by the early evening hours. Precipitation is expected to be light, likely a few hundredths, to a few tenths in the ID Panhandle. Convective afternoon thunderstorms are possible with supportive CAPE, lapse rates, but shear is looking weak. Isolated thunderstorms will bring the chance for lightning and brief downpours.

Winds will pick up with the entering cold front in the afternoon and evening. Strong northerly winds are expected to funnel down the Okanogan Valley. The areas with strongest winds will be found in the Okanogan Valley, Waterville Plateau, Basin, and Palouse with gusts to 20-35 mph. JS

Friday . Shortwave ridging will briefly build into the Inland NW delivering drying conditions for much of the region. Residual showers could persist over the ID Panhandle as the remnants of the upper level trough shift into the eastern Montana by afternoon. Model soundings show just enough instability to support isolated showers, however the ENS and ECMWF say the instability will be too shallow for anything other than convective clouds. As a result we will only keep a small chance of precipitation over the area. Meanwhile it should be yet another abnormally dry day across most of the region, especially early in the day. The precipitable water values begin the morning ranging from 0.15-0.25 inches which is in the top tenth percentile, however the good news is we will begin to see an influx of moisture during the afternoon as the mean flow turns increasingly onshore. Fortunately the winds will be relatively light compared to Thursday. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s over the north Idaho Panhandle to the lower 70 over the lower Columbia Basin.

Saturday through Monday . Big pattern changes still seem very likely during this period and the unusually dry weather we’ve seen since the beginning of March is expected to end. The extended ensemble models are in good agreement that the shortwave ridge will break down Friday night or Saturday with a deep trough parking over the eastern Pacific. Initially this will allow a weak atmospheric river to give the Inland NW a glancing blow of moisture before shifting south into Oregon and northern California. The low will then slowly sag south and east, remaining poised right off the coast through early next week but placing the Inland NW under a slightly drier albeit unstable air mass. The heaviest period of precipitation will span from late Friday night through Saturday due to widespread isentropic ascent. The chances will then wane in the lee of the Cascades by Saturday afternoon as a low-level cold front pushes through the region turning the winds to more of a westerly orientation. The post-cold frontal air mass will feature 500 mb temperatures in the -28 to -30c range and will support a small chance of afternoon/early evening thunderstorms, mainly near the Canadian border and a good possibility of showers over most of the ID Panhandle and the eastern third of Washington.

So how much rain are we talking about? Its not heavy by any means, but much better than what we’ve seen over the past 7 weeks. The big winners should be the immediate Cascade Crest as well as the mountains of extreme NE Washington and much of the Idaho Panhandle. Orographic influences will result in amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches in these areas. Meanwhile amounts in the valleys will be tempered more in the 0.15 to 0.40 inch range with a tenth or less over the Basin. Just as important as the rainfall will be a significant increase in the relative humidity levels. The days of seeing RH values plunge into the teens during the afternoon hours will end for quite some time. As for temperatures there is some variability between the models, especially on Saturday. Saturday temperatures will vary widely and will be dependent on the amount and duration of the precipitation. Right now we are forecasting highs in the 50s to lower 60s, but there are hints this might prove too warm as the 850 mb mean temperatures from the ENS are a rather chilly 1 to 4C and this could be accompanied by breezy conditions behind the front. By Sunday and Monday conditions will moderate some without the threat of widespread precipitation. Even so we are looking at high temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Tuesday . Most of the ensemble members are advertising a dry day with shortwave ridging building ahead of the next offshore trough. However a good proportion of the GEFS members aren’t showing that trend with little break between troughs. In fact this next round of precipitation could be heavier than the first is the GEFS is correct. The ENS is much less bullish on this possibility. Based on how much precipitation falls, there is a question on what to make of the temperatures. But I suspect it will be slightly warmer than the Sunday-Monday period. fx

AVIATION. 12Z TAFS: Dry flow will bring clear sky and light winds through the day. VFR conditions are expected to continue this TAF period. High clouds will increase through the evening with the arrival of an incoming cold front. Active weather returns tomorrow with an increase in winds and scattered light precipitation. JS

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Spokane 67 41 64 36 62 44 / 0 10 30 10 10 20 Coeur d'Alene 66 40 59 34 60 40 / 0 10 30 10 10 20 Pullman 64 39 62 38 61 42 / 0 0 30 10 10 20 Lewiston 71 45 70 45 68 47 / 0 0 30 10 10 10 Colville 72 37 67 33 65 39 / 0 20 20 0 10 30 Sandpoint 65 38 56 33 58 38 / 0 20 60 10 10 30 Kellogg 62 43 56 37 56 42 / 0 10 60 30 10 30 Moses Lake 73 42 72 39 69 45 / 0 0 10 0 0 10 Wenatchee 75 47 70 43 69 47 / 0 0 10 0 0 20 Omak 76 41 69 38 67 45 / 0 20 10 0 0 20

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ID . None. WA . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sandpoint, Sandpoint Airport, ID37 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair30°F27°F86%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSZT

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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNE6SE6E7SE6SE5SE4SE4SE5SE6SE7E3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3
1 day agoNE18
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NE14E8E10SE10E10SE10
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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