Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:30AM||Sunset 7:13PM||Saturday March 28, 2020 2:06 PM PDT (21:06 UTC)||Moonrise 8:38AM||Moonset 11:44PM||Illumination 23%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Heron, MTHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Spokane, WA  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KOTX 281752 AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1052 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2020
SYNOPSIS. A more active weather pattern will develop late in the weekend into early next week. The strongest storm system will arrive on Monday with windy conditions expected and the possibility of moderate snow near the Cascades. Mountain snow will linger into Tuesday and Wednesday with below normal temperatures expected through the middle of the week with a slow warming trend after that.
DISCUSSION. Today through Sunday night: Precipitation will expand this afternoon over the mountains. Although there isn't a lot of moisture across the region, the atmospheric column is relatively saturated and won't take much lift to squeeze out light precipitation. That is exactly what is expected: light precipitation with minimal if any impacts. Snow levels will increase a bit more today up to around 4000 ft by the afternoon. Stevens Pass is currently reporting rain and this may switch over to snow for the early morning hours before switching back to rain for the afternoon. Sherman Pass will see the potential for very light snow today, but little in the way of accumulations expected.
A weak cold front passage over the Cascades Saturday night will drop snow levels down with rain changing back over to snow at Stevens Pass by early Sunday morning. The prognoses is for a few inches of snow accumulation before roads become wet with afternoon heating. The front will increase the potential for valley rain and mountain snow east of the Cascades on Sunday. Best chances are expected over the eastern half of the forecast area with precipitation falling as valley rain and mountain snow. Between a quarter to one-half an inch of precipitation is expected over the Panhandle to around a tenth of an inch westward to Republic, Colville, Spokane and Colfax. Winds will be a bit breezy Sunday afternoon with gusts to between 20 and 30 mph. Sunday's weather system will just be the precursor though to a stronger system to come on Monday. /SVH
Monday . This still looks to be the most impactful day of this forecast as model guidance remains consistent on pushing a energetic cold front through the Inland Northwest during the afternoon. This front will be responsible for producing widespread light to moderate precipitation over most locations, except perhaps in the lee of the Cascades and into the far western portions of the Columbia Basin. The front will also produce breezy/windy conditions across much of the region as well. The front will deliver the heaviest precipitation amounts near the Cascade Crest with totals from Monday morning-Tuesday morning around one inch. Over the Idaho Panhandle precipitation totals will still range from 0.50-0.75 with as little a few hundredths of an inch over southern Grant County. Early in the morning much of what falls near the Cascades will fall as snow with snow levels of 1500-2000’. Farther east snow levels will generally range from 2500-3000’ so brief snow will be possible early, however surface temperatures in the mid 30s or warmer should generally negate much from accumulating. The snow levels will continue to rise ahead of the cold front, with values rising to 4000-4500 feet over SE WA into NC ID . and perhaps to 2500 feet in the Cascades. Snow levels will then plummet to valley floors overnight in the wake of the cold front with the bulk of the post frontal showers activity expected near the Cascades and the Idaho Panhandle. There is likely enough snow in the forecast that travel impacts will be a good possibility over Stevens Pass. There will be a lesser chance of impactful snow at Lookout and Sherman Passes due to higher snow levels and less precipitation.
Thunderstorms continue to look like a distinct possibility due to the depth of the front (up to nearly 500 mbs per time-height sections) and sufficiently deep instability ahead of it. Model soundings continue to suggest enough liquid water at the base of the clouds with enough ice aloft resulting in sufficient charge separation potential. The greatest risk will occur from early afternoon into early evening especially over extreme eastern Washington and most of the Idaho Panhandle. These won’t be strong thunderstorms, however the case for thunder looks more clear cut than recent one strike wonders in the cold graupel shower regime from earlier in the week.
The other story for the day will be the potential for gusty winds. Ensemble models remain consistent on moving a 1003 mb low through southern BC by Monday afternoon. This low will also be reflected at 850 mbs with a nice southerly jet expected to form ahead of the cold front by midday and then becoming southwesterly by afternoon. The 850 mb winds ahead of the front may actually be stronger than behind the front. We have raised the southerly pre- frontal winds a bit over most locations during the morning hours but the strongest winds are still expected in the afternoon, behind the front. Winds gusts of 30-45 mph still look possible during the afternoon. The GFS has been trending the position of the 850 mb jet farther south which if this continues would suggest the strongest winds would occur over the Palouse, LC Valley, Blues and southern Columbia Basin. The threat of widespread precipitation will begin to taper off from northwest to southeast overnight, with weakening winds as well.
For Tuesday, the region will remain on the cold and unstable side of the upper level jet which should result in more showers, especially for the eastern third of Washington into north Idaho and the Cascade Crest. Model stability forecasts suggest the greatest instability will develop from the NE quarter of Washington into the northern half of the Idaho Panhandle. Lifted Index values will dip slightly below zero with CAPEs nearing 200 j/kg. However despite this instability, cloud base temperatures still look too cold for having any significant liquid in them and thus charge separation could be hard to come by. It does look like a good setup for graupel showers though.
Wednesday through Friday . Yesterday's ensemble means showed a big deviation between the ENS which depicted a persist trough over the region, whereas the GEFS showed a developing ridge. Now it appears there is better agreement and this time its the ENS that is trending toward the GEFS. This suggests conditions will be warming and drying with just a few showers possible mainly near the Canadian border since this will be a relatively flat, dirty ridge. Temperatures will begin to warm up steadily with
AVIATION. 18Z TAFS: A saturated atmosphere over the region is bringing widesrpead cloud coverage and producing low to mid level cloud decks for the Spokane- Coeur d'Alene corridor and over the Palouse. Afternoon instability could produce isolated showers for the region. Best chances for these showers will be over the Cascade crest and over the higher terrain from the Okanogan Highlands to the Idaho Panhandle. Mountain obscurations through the day today. As more moisture is pushed into the region chances for showers will increase overnight and into Sunday morning with IFR/MVFR conditions possible. /JDC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Spokane 53 40 53 36 50 31 / 20 40 80 50 90 60 Coeur d'Alene 50 39 49 36 48 31 / 30 50 90 60 90 60 Pullman 52 39 51 36 47 31 / 20 50 80 50 80 70 Lewiston 58 43 57 41 54 37 / 20 40 80 50 70 70 Colville 55 37 53 33 53 28 / 30 50 90 50 90 50 Sandpoint 47 38 46 36 46 32 / 50 70 100 80 90 70 Kellogg 45 36 46 36 43 32 / 40 60 100 80 90 80 Moses Lake 61 41 62 39 56 33 / 10 20 20 10 50 30 Wenatchee 58 39 59 36 53 34 / 30 30 30 20 70 50 Omak 57 40 58 36 54 30 / 20 30 50 20 80 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ID . None. WA . None.
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|Sandpoint, Sandpoint Airport, ID||37 mi||72 min||S 7||10.00 mi||Overcast||45°F||33°F||66%||1015.9 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KSZT
Wind History from SZT (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||S||S||S||S||S||S||Calm||SW||SW||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||S||Calm||Calm||S||S||SW||S||SW||S|
|2 days ago||S||S||E|
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