Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Athol, ID

SYNOPSIS
Cooler and wetter weather pattern will stick around this week with several opportunities for showers and afternoon thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
Tuesday and Wednesday: A cool and showery pattern will persist through Wednesday as we remain under a cold upper level trough.
Conditions Tuesday will be similar to what we saw on Monday with steep lapse rates and CAPE values of 200 to 500 J/kg bringing convective showers and chances for thunderstorms across a large part of the region. Wednesday will feature another round of afternoon showers focused over the Cascade Crest, Northeast WA, and the ID Panhandle, though conditions look less favorable for thunderstorms.

Thursday through Monday: Models are coming into better agreement on a ridge of high pressure briefly building in on Thursday, bringing a break from the showers everywhere but far northern WA and North ID along the Canadian border. A more unsettled pattern will return Friday bringing additional chances for showers and afternoon thunderstorms across a larger portion of the region. Central WA will unfortunately miss out on most of the showers throughout the forecast period. Afternoon high temperatures will generally be in the 60s and overnight lows in the 40s. /Fewkes

AVIATION
18Z TAFS: Widely scattered convective showers today under a conditionally unstable trough of lower pressure. Showers are expected to primarily be concentrated east of a line from KOMK to KEAT and will move north to south at 10-15 kts. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are also expected, but confidence is too low that any one airport will see a thunderstorm to include in the TAFs. Ceilings will lift with surface heating this afternoon with VFR conditions regionwide by 20Z; however, ceilings between 4-6 kft agl will result in mountain obscurations.
Heavier showers and passing thunderstorms this afternoon may result in lowering ceilings and visibility with brief MVFR conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence remains low for thunderstorms impacting any of the TAF sites this afternoon (less than 20% chance). High confidence for VFR conditions this afternoon aside for local areas where heavier showers pass through. Confidence is moderate for low stratus and MVFR conditions late tonight after 10Z into Tuesday morning at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW . /SVH

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Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
Spokane 45 64 42 63 44 59 / 30 20 10 0 20 30 Coeur d'Alene 44 62 41 62 43 58 / 40 40 30 10 20 40 Pullman 41 59 38 60 42 56 / 20 20 10 0 20 30 Lewiston 48 67 45 67 49 66 / 20 20 0 0 20 30 Colville 39 64 37 65 40 59 / 40 50 40 10 30 50 Sandpoint 45 57 42 58 44 53 / 50 70 60 30 30 50 Kellogg 46 56 44 57 45 54 / 40 60 30 20 20 50 Moses Lake 44 72 41 70 44 69 / 10 0 0 0 10 10 Wenatchee 49 68 45 68 47 69 / 10 0 0 0 10 10 Omak 46 68 42 66 46 65 / 30 0 0 0 20 20

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
ID...None.