Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carlsborg, WA

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A trough pushed through western WA late yesterday, with the pattern beginning to change today into Sunday as a brief ridge over the Pacific flattens as it moves onshore Sunday. Behind yesterday's trough, there remains a couple areas of convergence zone showers across the Cascades. The primary area the showers are covering is along and north of I-90. The temperatures remain coldest in the I-90 corridor this afternoon, although temperatures have warmed quite a bit in the foothills and lowlands this afternoon (breaking 40 degrees). Snow impacts are decreasing this afternoon, and no further winter products will be issued past the remaining advisory for the central Cascades and Foothills (which will expire by 5 PM).

The remainder of the lowlands will see a mix of clouds of sun this afternoon and evening with the brief high pressure. This will transition to high clouds ahead of the next system tonight.
A couple spots may see patchy fog/freezing fog tonight with the light winds, but the high clouds will likely hinder any widespread development. The temperatures will be on the chilly side, with most of western WA at or below freezing tonight (temperatures in the upper 20s to low 40s, with low 20s and teens in the mountains). A few shady spots that stay damp tonight may see slick spots form Sunday morning (especially if untreated).

The ridge flattens Sunday, with the next jet streak & moist conveyor belt setting up to the north of the states in Canada.
There is a warm front that will approach the coast late Sunday morning and afternoon. Snow levels will increase to over 9,000 ft on Sunday. The next round of precipitation does not arrive along the coast until late Sunday morning/early afternoon, and does not reach the remainder of the interior until late Sunday evening. Snow will be limited to the Cascades and Olympics, and just the peaks as the snow levels rise. A couple early showers Sunday morning that come ashore may produce a couple snowflakes. The precipitation continues into Monday, with a few heavier areas of QPF being focused in the Cascades, the Olympics and coast. There are expectations that rivers and streams will rise with the additional rain falling on top of the melting snow next week (see the hydrology discussion below for further details). Highs increase into the mid and upper 40s Sunday and Monday, with lows well above freezing Sunday and Monday night. The coast and north interior have the potential to see windy conditions, with gusts most likely at this time approaching 30-35 mph.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The warm and wet pattern will continue through the week, with a couple additional rounds of moderate precipitation expected in the mountains and the coast at times through the week. The precipitation begins to scale back on Friday, with some disagreement if the warm pattern continues into the weekend, or if it becomes cooler. The temperatures will warm gradually through the week, with lowlands seeing highs approach the upper 50s to low 60s.

HPR

AVIATION
Lingering convergence zone showers will mainly affect the central Cascades this evening. High pressure moving inland tonight for a mix of mid and high clouds. Patchy fog possible around the south sound. Rain from a warm front will reach the coast Sunday morning and the interior during the afternoon. The front will lift north Sunday night. 33

KSEA...VFR conditions will prevail. Light variable wind becoming S to SE by 06Z. Patchy low clouds or fog in the vicinity early Sunday. 33

MARINE
High pressure will shift inland tonight. Southerly flow will increase on Sunday as a strong warm front shifts north into southern British Columbia. Moderate south winds will continue into Monday and Tuesday with Small Craft Advisories possible for the interior waters. Seas will build to 10-12 ft by Tuesday. 33

HYDROLOGY
River flooding continues for rivers across the Chehalis basin. Rivers currently in flood stage include the Skookumchuck River near Bucoda, and the Chehalis River near Grand Mound and at Porter. Expect rivers to crest today into Sunday and to start receding.

Attention will then turn to an atmospheric river expected to move inland to the north of the region early next week before gradually sagging southward into our area. Higher snow levels and rain on recent snows in the mountains could bring additional flooding concerns to portions of the area as several rivers are forecast to rise into Action Stage. For now, the only river forecast to reach flood stage is the Skokomish River- but river forecasts will bear watching over the coming days.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Cascades of Southern King County-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 PM PDT Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.