Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carlsborg, WA

SYNOPSIS
Cooler and showery conditions will remain across the region through much of the week as a series of disturbances cross the region. High pressure likely rebuilds over the western U.S.
over the weekend, bringing a return of warmer and drier conditions to the area.



SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Expect shower coverage to decrease for most overnight, but a developing Puget Sound Convergence Zone will likely maintain an area of steadier showers into Wednesday morning. Some showers increase again near and south of the South Sound later Wednesday, with lingering showers in the Cascades late Wednesday. Transient high pressure moves overhead Thursday with increased sunshine, drier conditions, and temperatures returning back to near normal.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The global ensembles generally favor the development and strengthening of a ridge over the western U.S. late in the week and into the weekend.
This is a subset, around 20%, of ensemble members that suggest enough of a trough near the region to maintain some clouds and mountain showers, but the majority go favor a drier trend. As a result, the forecast continues to follow this pattern with a warm up - most notably Sunday, with afternoon high temperatures well into the 70s and approaching 80 in the warmest spots. It's worth noting that there's is still a portion of ensemble members that would keep temperatures much closer to (or below)
normal values. Confidence remains low into the start of next week with some potential for the next frontal system to make its way into the region, but the ridge may remain present and amplified enough to keep warmer and drier conditions for first half of next week.



AVIATION
Northwesterly flow aloft as scattered showers continue throughout the region this evening. Scattered showers are expected to continue this evening, which could bring localized pockets of reduced ceilings and visibility briefly at times. A convergence zone around KPAE this evening will continue to bring localized lower ceilings, but will slowly dissipate into the overnight hours. Showers will gradually taper off tonight.
Ceilings will drop to MVFR Wednesday morning along the majority of Puget Sound terminals (KPWT may drop down to IFR) and northern interior terminals, with improvement expected late in the morning.
Otherwise, VFR expected to persist for the majority of the TAF period for mostly all terminals.

Breezy S/SW winds along interior terminals will continue this afternoon 10-15 kt and gusting to 20-25 kt, subsiding overnight to 5- 7 kt. Surface flow will shift more northerly late Wednesday morning.

KSEA...Scattered showers continue around the terminal this evening. However, any showers that do impact the terminal may briefly reduce ceilings and visibility at times. Models are still in general agreement for convergence zone development to stay north of the terminal tonight. Guidance is hinting at high-end MVFR ceilings between 12z-17z Wednesday morning, with improvement into VFR expected late morning. Otherwise, VFR is favored for the majority of the TAF period.

S/SW breezy wind continue this afternoon at 10-15 kt and gusting up to around 20 kt. Winds are expected to subside tonight. Surface winds will shift north/northeasterly late Wednesday morning into the afternoon (6-8 kt).

29/Mazurkiewicz



MARINE
Westerly surface flow along the coastal waters will shift more northwesterly this evening. A weak push along the Central and East Strait is expected tonight. Sustained wind speeds will be around 15-20 kt, but probabilistic guidance highlights a 60-80 percent chance of wind gusts reaching small craft criteria for a brief period, for which a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. In addition, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters and West Strait for high seas 10-11 ft this afternoon. Seas should subside below 10 ft tonight into early Wednesday morning.

Weak high pressure will build over the coastal waters on Wednesday and Thursday. The next frontal system looks to arrive on Friday, with high pressure rebuilding over the weekend.

Seas 9 to 11 ft this afternoon and will subside late tonight to 7 to 8 ft. Seas look to remain below 10 ft through the rest of the week.

29



SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.