Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Harbor, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Satellite imagery shows upper level trough over the Cascades early this morning with a majority of the cloud cover and showers south of the area. Skies already clearing behind the trough along the North Coast. Doppler radar has isolated shower activity as far north as King County at 10z/3 am. Temperatures were in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Upper level trough continuing to move east today pulling the cloud cover and what little shower activity there is associated with the trough out of the area this morning. Mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Weak onshore flow and still a little cool air aloft keeping high temperatures near normal, in the 60s.

Not much going on tonight and Friday with zonal flow aloft over Western Washington and frontal systems well to the west.
Temperatures aloft not warming and the low level flow remains light. This will keep highs Friday near normal once again, in the 60s. The lack of cloud cover overnight will allow the colder locations like the Southwest Interior to drop into the upper 30s.
Lows for the remainder of the area in the lower to mid 40s.

Upper level low beginning to move south out of the Gulf of Alaska between 140-150W Friday night into Saturday. This in turn will build an upper level ridge over Western Washington Friday night with the ridge axis moving into Eastern Washington Saturday.
Temperatures warming aloft with 500 mb heights getting above 570 dms but northerly flow in the lower levels and increasing onshore flow late in the day will keep highs from getting too warm. Mid 60s to mid 70s for the interior with the afternoon onshore flow capping highs along the coast in the lower to mid 60s. Like Friday morning, the lack of cloud cover overnight into Saturday morning will allow the colder locations to drop into the upper 30s. Most places will have lows in the lower to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Extended models in good agreement with the upper level ridge to the east Sunday and an approaching upper level trough still offshore. The approaching trough will turn the flow aloft southerly Sunday afternoon and evening. Will have to keep an eye out for possible late day convection over the Cascades.

Trough moving inland over the Pacific Northwest Monday with most of the energy going inland south of Western Washington. Just a chance of showers in the forecast with the trough overhead.

Both models build another upper level ridge to the east for Tuesday and Wednesday. This ridge has much more amplitude than the ridge over the weekend. The higher amplitude ridge increases the southerly flow aloft over the area especially Wednesday. Ensemble solutions are for the most part dry but enough solutions with light precipitation Wednesday to put a chance of showers in the forecast.

Highs Sunday in the mid 60s to mid 70s cooling a little for Monday to the 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday similar to the weekend with southerly flow aloft pumping some warmer air into the region. Highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Felton

AVIATION
Southwesterly flow aloft will gradually become more westerly today as a trough swings across the region. Mid to high cloud cover is currently streaming across western Washington this morning from a weather system to the south. Radar does show some light shower activity starting to move up into the Sound early this morning as well. Could continue to see some light shower activity continue through the next few hours, but expect most activity to become more confined to the Cascades through the day as the system moves to the northeast. Conditions at all area terminals remain VFR this morning, though could see a few spots drop to MVFR through the morning hours, especially in any shower activity. VFR conditions are then expected to redevelop and prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.

N/NE surface winds at 4-7 kts will transition to more N/NW and increase to 5-10 kts by this afternoon.

KSEA...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, with increasing mid and high cloud cover this morning. Winds NE at 4-7 kts will shift to the W/NW and increase to 5-10 kts this afternoon.

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MARINE
High pressure will build over the area waters today and persist through the weekend. A frontal system associated with a low pressure system over the Gulf of Alaska will approach Vancouver Island on Friday, but looks to dissipate before making it into the Washington waters. Do not expect much in the way of impact from this system across the area waters at this time- however this will allow for northerly winds across the coastal waters to gradually transition back to southerly over the weekend. Diurnal westerly pushes are expected along the central and eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca over the next few evenings. May see wind gusts briefly approach small craft criteria with the onshore push tonight, but do not expect gusts to be frequent or widespread- so held off on a small craft issuance for now.

A front will then move into the area waters on Monday, with high pressure building back into the coastal waters in its wake.

Seas across the coastal waters are 4-6 ft this morning and will continue to subside towards 3-5 ft on Friday. A slight uptick in seas is expected again Saturday night into Sunday, with seas building towards 5-7 ft. Seas then look to persist within this range through the early part of next week.

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SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...None.