Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Troy, MT

SYNOPSIS
Cooler and wetter weather pattern will stick around this week with several opportunities for showers and very isolated thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
The unsettled Spring-like weather pattern we're currently under will continue with another round of showers and afternoon thunderstorm chances (15-30%) today. The area most expected to see any thunderstorm development is far northeast Washington and far Northern Idaho. A few hundred J/kg of instability resides over this area per latest ensemble guidance. The upper level Low will further slide southeast across the Rockies while another trough moves southeast along the BC/Alberta Rockies into Montana.

The PacNW will remain in a cool and unsettled pattern leading into the coming weekend, with a one- off break on Thursday. Friday and Saturday don't look as great for thunderstorm development (10-15% probability in coverage for eastern WA and the ID Panhandle). Precipitation amounts range from less than 0.10" to near 0.25" Friday across eastern WA, the ID Panhandle including the WA and ID Palouse to the north- central Washington Okanogan Highlands and Okanogan Valley on Saturday. Sunday will feature a more robust weather system to bring higher amounts of precipitation to the central Idaho Panhandle and far southeast corner of WA. Into the early part of next week, the unsettled series of shortwave features will continue to bring showers and cooler, but near seasonal normal, temperatures to the Pacific and Inland Northwest. Another taste of Spring before we truly step into Summer. /Dewey

AVIATION
18Z TAFS: A moist boundary layer combined with low level upslope flow into NE WA/N ID Panhandle will continue to promote areas of MVFR stratus this morning, with VFR conditions across Central WA where downslope northwest winds will persist through this evening. Heading into the afternoon, showers will again increase across NE WA/ID Panhandle along with a 15-30% chance of thunderstorms. The highest potential for thunderstorms will be north of KGEG/KSFF/KCOE so did not include a mention for any of the TAF sites. Overnight into Thursday morning showers come to an end (except the N ID Panhandle) as a short wave ridge moves over the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence that MVFR conditions will persist through 19-20z over NE WA/N ID Panhandle, with improvement to VFR after that as boundary layer mixing helps raise the cloud heights. Although localized MVFR conditions are possible under any heavier showers or thunderstorms this afternoon. JW

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Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
Spokane 64 42 63 44 59 44 / 30 20 0 0 40 20 Coeur d'Alene 60 40 61 42 57 41 / 60 40 10 10 40 30 Pullman 58 37 59 41 56 41 / 40 10 0 10 50 20 Lewiston 66 45 66 48 63 46 / 40 10 0 10 40 20 Colville 64 35 66 41 60 38 / 60 50 0 20 40 60 Sandpoint 58 43 60 43 58 42 / 70 70 40 30 40 50 Kellogg 55 43 56 43 56 43 / 80 50 30 10 40 60 Moses Lake 71 40 70 46 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Wenatchee 68 45 69 48 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Omak 70 40 69 46 65 45 / 10 0 0 10 20 20

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
ID...None.