Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Troy, MT

SYNOPSIS
Breezy winds and chances for mountain showers and thunderstorms linger Thursday through Saturday. Some frost is possible toward the end of the week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Today through Sunday: Unsettled conditions will continue as troughs move through the Pacific Northwest. A weakly unstable environment this afternoon in central WA will continue to support low topped convection. The main hazard from these storms will be outflow winds kicking up additional dust where rains have been lackluster. Dust storm detection has been and will continue to be exceedingly difficult due to cloud cover blocking the surface on GOES satellite.
Gusty synoptic winds will continue through the evening as the surface cyclone in SW continues to deepen and high pressure builds off the WA/OR coast. The wind highlights are still in effect until 11 PM tonight. Shower activity will be mostly outside of the INW except the ID Panhandle mtns near the MT border and near the Cascades. Tomorrow will be cool in the 60s to low 70s with breezy conditions again, but not as windy as today. There will be some showers near the Cascade crest and ID Panhandle mountains in the afternoon and evening both tomorrow and Friday, but significant impacts are not expected. Additional showers are expected Saturday and Sunday primarily in the mountains, the eastern third of WA, and north ID as a deeper, but somewhat moisture starved shortwave moves through the area. Rain amounts look light below 0.25 inches. This wave train will keep our temperatures below normal through the weekend and into early next week.

Monday through Wednesday: There is good agreement among the ensemble guidance that a slow warming trend will commence as high pressure builds off the Pacific coast behind the weekend system and slowly shifts inland but flattens. Temperatures will return to near normal to slightly above normal by Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. This will bring drier conditions with it. DB

AVIATION
00Z TAFs: A cold upper-low spinning over Eastern WA will begin to drift east. Rain showers will increase for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, KLWS through 03z then slowly depart North Idaho by 06z.
The bands of showers have a history of MVFR cigs and vis.
Embedded lightning will also remain a threat though activity has decreased significantly and confidence was low enough to keep thunder out of the 00z TAFS. Strong winds are in place and will remain in place through 09-10z. Speeds decrease 5-10kts but remain elevated and become gusty again after 19z Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence in location of lightning strikes. Low to moderate confidence precise timing for wind gusts to decrease. May experience fluctuations with gusts dropping off for 1-2 hours then returning. Moderate to high confidence for MVFR/IFR conditions with rain. Low to moderate threat for low stratus to develop toward 08-12Z Thursday around KPUW and KGEG, but confidence is low.

----------------------- Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
Spokane 43 64 42 61 40 56 / 60 0 0 0 0 30 Coeur d'Alene 43 62 41 59 39 53 / 90 0 10 0 10 60 Pullman 41 61 40 59 39 53 / 60 0 0 0 0 50 Lewiston 45 68 46 66 44 58 / 10 0 0 0 0 30 Colville 35 67 34 64 32 58 / 80 0 10 0 10 60 Sandpoint 41 62 40 59 38 51 / 90 0 10 20 10 60 Kellogg 41 59 40 57 39 49 / 100 10 20 10 20 80 Moses Lake 45 69 41 66 38 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 48 66 44 64 41 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 Omak 41 69 39 64 36 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 20

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Moses Lake Area- Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin- Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Northeast Blue Mountains.
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse- Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area- Northern Panhandle.