Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Troy, MT

Version 3.4
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12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 7:14PM Sunday March 29, 2020 11:58 AM PDT (18:58 UTC) Moonrise 9:05AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Troy, MT
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Area Discussion for - Spokane, WA
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FXUS66 KOTX 291243 AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 543 AM PDT Sun Mar 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. Active weather will develop today and continue through Monday night. The strongest storm system will arrive on Monday with windy conditions expected and the possibility of moderate to heavy snow near the Cascades. Although the weather will quiet down by Tuesday, it looks like cooler and unsettled weather will persist through much of the week.

DISCUSSION.

. Moderate to heavy mountain snow, gusty winds, blowing dust and isolated thunderstorms to impact the Inland Northwest through Monday .

Today through Monday night: A pair of occluded fronts will push across the region over the next 36 to 48 hours. The first is moving into western WA this morning and is set to move across eastern WA and the Idaho Panhandle this afternoon. The second front will arrive almost exactly 24 hours later. There is a difference in the strength between these two fronts with the second one arriving on Monday exhibiting much stronger dynamics compared to today's frontal passage. The stronger dynamics will likely result in more widespread minor impacts across the region; although, the potential impacts covers a wide spectrum of possible weather hazards that I will go into depth about in storm 2 of this discussion. Similar hazards will be possible with today's frontal passage, but the magnitude of impacts doesn't look as great and I will expand on that here with storm 1:

*Storm 1: Radar is showing a smattering of light echos over the area. Best moist isentropic ascent is located over the Idaho Panhandle where precipitation looks to actually be reaching the ground and measuring. This is only a precursor though as the main forcing along the front will come Sunday morning/afternoon. Much of the basin will remain in the rain shadow with favored upslope areas in westerly flow receiving the bulk of the precip (i.e. Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle). Snow will start out around 4,000 feet and not expecting any impacts due to snow. Winds will become breezy this afternoon with gusts of 25-35 mph expected over the basin. Will need to monitor for the potential of blowing dust around the Moses Lake Area, but I don't think winds will get strong enough for any more than some patchy bowing dust and not confident enough to include in the forecast.

Another potential hazard that will need monitoring through the afternoon will be for thunderstorms. The front looks to be moving through a bit faster than what models were showing 24 hours ago, which suggest mid level clouds clearing out behind the front and destabilization due to surface heating as clouds clear out. High resolution models show the potential for isolated thunderstorms generally east of a line from Moses Lake to Omak all the way to the Idaho Panhandle. There will only be 200-400 J/kg of skinny CAPE to work with, but any thunderstorms will be able to tap into stronger winds aloft and could produce winds gust closer to 40 mph.

*Storm 2: Monday's storm is by far the stronger of the two. Timing of frontal passage is very similar to storm 1. What is different between the two is, snow levels will start out closer to 3500 feet and only drop with time Monday morning. It will also be wetter. This spells a better chance for moderate to heavy snow in the mountains. Best chances for heavy mountain snow will be in the Cascades and Okanogan Highlands to Northern Panhandle. The Cascade crest will see the potential for 9-12 inches. Winter travel can be expected with the cold front Sunday night into Monday morning and with post frontal showers over the crest through Monday night. A winter storm watch for heavy snow has been issued mainly to highlight for hazardous travel along Highway 2 west of Coles Corner up and over Stevens Pass. Sherman Pass and elevations above 4000 feet over to the Northern Panhandle will see the potential for 7-9 inches of snow. I considered including Sherman Pass in the winter storm watch, but not as confident that warning criteria (8 inches) will be met; however, periods of heavy snow will be likely there as well Monday morning. Showers will continue into the Idaho Panhandle Monday night with snow levels crashing to valley floors. Lookout Pass will receive 2 to 4 inches of snow. Moisture will be decrease by the time the Silver Valley sees snow with accumulations of up to around an inch possible.

Winds up at 850 mbs will be around 50 mph right along the front. Those winds aloft decrease substantially to around 35 mph in the post frontal air mass for Monday afternoon. There is a good chance for 45 mph wind gusts right along the front Monday morning to about noon. Monday afternoon will be windy, but the potential for 45 mph gusts will decrease. I lack the confidence that we will see those stronger wind gusts along the front will sustain themselves into the afternoon, because of that, I decided to hold off on a wind advisory. Blowing dust will be a concern with the winds. Areas prone to blowing dust impacts typically are the Moses Lake Area to around Ritzville. This may impact visibility for stretches along I-90 and U.S. 395.

Thunderstorms will also be possible on Monday (like Today) primarily across the eastern half of the forecast area. Coverage will be isolated and the main threat will be for the potential of convectively enhanced wind gusts. That enhancement will bring the potential for gusts of 45 to 50 mph, but winds that strong will likely be localized and tough to know if they will occur in a place where there will be impacts felt. /SVH

Tuesday . The region will remain on the cold and unstable side of the upper level jet with a broad cold core low centered over southern BC. This looks like a classic springtime pattern with a proliferation of showers developing as a result of daytime heating. The mid-level or 850-500 mb lapse rates will be very steep over most of the region, so any sunshine should be able to pops showers easily. The 850-700 mb winds suggest the best orographic ascent from SW flow will occur over NE Washington into much of the Idaho Panhandle. The biggest question for the day will be if thunderstorms develop or not. The model Lifted index values drop below zero over the eastern quarter of Washington and over much of the Panhandle with SBCAPES ranging from 150-300 j/kg which is generally sufficient for some thunderstorms, however as has been the case for the past several model runs, the cloud base temperatures will likely be at -5c or colder suggesting there might not be much water in the clouds, but rather they will be ice dominated. This suggests the lightning risk will be small, but cannot entirely rule out a few cloud-to-cloud strikes. They just won’t be widespread enough to warrant a mention of thunder in the grids. The best chances if any were to occur would be over the NE corner of Washington and the northern half of the Panhandle. Most of the precipitation will likely fall as graupel.

Wednesday through Saturday . Well . this is getting frustrating. While yesterdays model ensemble means suggested the formation of a dirty ridge over the region, most of today’s means keep the broad low fixed over the area at least through Friday and perhaps even into the weekend. So what does this mean? It suggests the diurnal shower pattern will continue each day, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Most of the showers will be orographically induced, especially over the Idaho Panhandle. While showers are no guarantee everywhere across the Inland NW, what is more certain is temperatures will cool quite a bit vs. our previous forecast. It looks like Wednesday will be the coldest day with a slow warming thereafter. Highs on Wednesday will only be in the 40s to lower 50s or nearly 10 degrees colder than normal. Precipitation amounts during this period will be hit or miss and significantly lighter than what the Monday system will deliver. fx

AVIATION. 12Z TAFS: An occluded front will push east of the Cascades this afternoon. A saturated profile over much of eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle will result in light showers through the morning. Much of what will be observed on radar over the basin will be sprinkles or virga showers with rain more likely over the Panhandle where lower levels will be saturated. The additional moisture will keep ceilings low into the early afternoon with MVFR conditions expected for KGEG-KSFF-COE-KPUW-KLWS TAF sites. Rain will increase over extreme eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with frontal passage between 18-00Z. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible generally east of a line from KPSC to KOMK after 20Z as sun breaks destabilize the atmosphere behind the front after 21Z. Thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow winds between 30 to 40 kts. Not enough confidence that any one terminal will be impacted by thunderstorms to include in the TAFs at this time. Small threat of blowing dust will be possible near KMWH this afternoon and may produce some haze. /SVH

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Spokane 52 37 50 31 47 29 / 70 50 100 30 40 20 Coeur d'Alene 46 37 47 31 45 30 / 80 60 100 50 50 20 Pullman 48 36 49 32 45 29 / 80 50 100 50 50 30 Lewiston 57 41 55 37 51 35 / 60 50 90 60 50 30 Colville 55 34 53 29 50 27 / 80 60 100 30 40 20 Sandpoint 47 37 45 32 44 30 / 90 80 100 70 60 30 Kellogg 44 36 44 32 41 29 / 80 70 100 60 80 40 Moses Lake 61 41 58 32 56 31 / 20 20 50 10 10 0 Wenatchee 58 39 52 33 52 32 / 30 20 70 10 20 0 Omak 58 38 54 30 51 31 / 50 20 90 10 20 10

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ID . None. WA . Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for the cascade crest including highway 2 between coles corner and stevens pass for East Slopes Northern Cascades.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boundary County Airport, ID30 mi89 minS 6 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F37°F71%1009.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K65S

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Spokane, WA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Spokane, WA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.