Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for La Conner, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Previous discussion...Onshore flow continuing across the region with continued rain in the wake of the passing frontal system. Moist, westerly flow aloft will continue through the day today with cloudy and cool conditions continuing. Another disturbance slides across the region Saturday, with another round of showers across the area. Instability increases a bit during the afternoon and evening showers, with around a 20% chance of thunderstorms across portions of the area (generally south and east of Puget sound, extending through the Cascades). Snow levels remain somewhat low into Sunday, around 4000 ft or so, and some light snow may fall in the mountains as a result. However, any accumulations should be light (less than an inch) and short-lived.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Heights rise a bit by early Monday with an upper ridge moving through the region, bringing a decrease in shower activity. This should also allow for temperatures to trend back up a couple of degrees, mostly in the lower 60s. Another front arrives late Monday or Tuesday for another round of cloudy and showery conditions, along with breezier winds. Ensemble guidance begins to split later in the week, with the forecast continuing to reflect modest onshore flow maintaining clouds and near normal conditions, but the potential for a slightly warmer and perhaps drier pattern to emerge by the late stages of the week.

AVIATION
Westerly flow aloft will become southwesterly tonight as the next in a series of upper troughs and associated weak fronts approaches Western Washington. The air mass remains quite moist with widespread low MVFR or IFR ceilings. Only marginal improvement is expected late this afternoon with ceilings remaining MVFR areawide with scattered showers. Shower coverage will increase overnight into early Saturday with ceilings dropping back to low MVFR or IFR.

KSEA...Low MVFR or occasional IFR with scattered showers and/or drizzle in the vicinity expected to persist into midday. Current thinking leans toward pessimistic approach to any improvement with ceilings only lifting to 020-025 late in the day. Showers will increase late tonight into Saturday with low MVFR or occasional IFR ceilings persisting. Surface winds S/SW generally 5 to 8 knots. 27

MARINE
A frontal system will move over the waters today and weaken as it moves inland. Surface high pressure will build over the coastal waters Saturday into Sunday. This will bring increased onshore flow over the coastal waters and Strait of Juan de Fuca. The next frontal system arrives Monday. 27

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.