Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bay View, WA

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Recent radar imagery shows scattered shower cover pushing from the south with a weak front crossing the area. An upper level low spinning offshore is aiding in shower development across the area this afternoon.
Latest hi- resolution guidance is depicting shower coverage generally moving northward across the area into the evening. There is a chance of convective showers through this evening, where a rumble of thunder and perhaps a lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out. Model guidance is seeing very minimal instability values, so the chance of thunder and lightning is low, but it is there. Temperatures this afternoon mainly hovering in the low to mid 60s.

The aforementioned upper level low will continue to drift southward and bring some wrap around moisture into Monday, keeping showers in the forecast. Weak upper level ridging looks to build into Tuesday and will be the primary influence on the weather through Wednesday, keeping the area mostly dry but a few showers are still possible in the higher terrains such as the Cascades during that time. Temperatures largely remaining the same.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Ensembles are hinting at more upper level troughing in the long term period, which would bring more unsettled and showery weather into the weekend.
Deterministic models seem to be split on the strength of multiple frontal systems at this time, but overall consensus looks like more troughiness and showery weather through the long term.

Mazurkiewicz

AVIATION
Upper level trough offshore moving inland tonight and remaining over the area Monday. Southerly flow aloft becoming light later tonight. Light flow in the lower levels. Air mass slightly unstable until around 06z.

Scattered to broken layer near 4000 feet with another layer around 7000 feet. Shower activity through 06z with local ceilings near 3000 feet in showers. MVFR ceilings developing 10z-14z Monday morning. Ceilings improving back to VFR 18z-21z Monday.

KSEA...Scattered to broken layer near 4500 feet with broken to overcast layer around 7000 feet. Ceilings lowering to around 2000 feet 12z Monday lifting back up to near 4000 feet around 19z.
Southerly winds 4 to 8 knots.

Slight chance of thunderstorms over the Cascades in approach paths to the terminal through 04z. Felton

MARINE
A 1002 mb surface low over the Oregon offshore waters will move southeast and dissipate by Monday morning. High pressure rebuilding over the coastal waters Monday with lower pressure inland. This pattern will remain intact through Thursday. Weak front moving through the waters Thursday night into Friday.

Small Craft Advisory winds are likely through the Strait of Juan de Fuca Monday night and again Tuesday night. Seas building to around 10 ft over the outer Coastal Waters Tuesday will subside below 10 feet Wednesday. Felton

HYDROLOGY
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be included as needed.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...None.