Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for International Falls, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 423 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Another hot, dry, and gusty day is on tap across the Northland today. Fire weather concerns continue, although winds and temperatures should be a bit lower than the past two days.
Critical fire weather is forecast across most of northeast Minnesota, except the shoreline areas of the North Shore. High temperatures will be in the 80s to near 90 degrees, except for portions of the Arrowhead near Lake Superior where southerly flow will keep lake-modified air in place.

A pattern shift begins Wednesday as a large-scale trough pushes eastward toward the High Plains. The approach of the trough will encourage the cutoff low over the Deep South to drift toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Gulf and Pacific moisture will return to the area which will increase dewpoints across the Northland. The fire weather risk will decrease on Wednesday with RH values being buoyed by the increase in water vapor and slightly cooler temperatures. Skies should be mostly sunny to partly cloudy and a little instability will work northward into northwest Wisconsin during the afternoon. There is a slight chance of a few isolated showers or storms to develop and persist into the evening.

The greater chance of rain and storms will arrive on Thursday.
A negatively tilted shortwave trough will pivot around the base of the large scale trough and move into the Upper Midwest.
Isentropic ascent should produce widespread cloud cover and showers during the morning hours. Instability will develop over portions of northwest Wisconsin during the afternoon and early evening as surface low pressure lifts into the region. If skies can clear, there is a potential to develop 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE over northwest Wisconsin. Storms may develop along a warm front during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Mid- level lapse rates of 7-8 C per km are forecast during that time with 35 to 45 knots of effective bulk shear. Storms which can develop in this environment will be capable of large hail to 1.5 inches and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. Messy hodographs and limited low-level instability suggest the potential for tornadoes is very low.

The upper-level trough will evolve into a cutoff low and will loiter over the region through Saturday. Temperatures will trend much cooler. The risk of "conversational" snow has shifted later in the period, toward Friday night and Saturday morning.
The axis of the coldest temps aloft has shifted much farther west with the 13.00Z guidance and is now found over the central Dakotas. Light rain showers will likely persist Friday and Saturday. Additional rain chances are forecast early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

VFR conditions across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. Southerly wind gusts of 20-25kts will continue across northeast Minnesota through sunset, with gusts around 15 kts across northwest Wisconsin. Low level moisture will increase tonight across northwest Wisconsin, Lake Superior and into Duluth. MVFR/IFR conditions in fog and stratus are possible (50-70 percent chance).

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 423 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Southerly winds are forecast today and tonight. A low pressure system will approach the region Wednesday and Thursday. There is a slight chance of an isolated storm Wednesday afternoon and evening and a chance of storms Thursday and Thursday night.
Strong northeast winds are forecast and will pose a risk to small craft Thursday and Thursday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010>012- 018-019-025-026-033>038.
WI...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001-002- 006>008.
MARINE...None.