Saturday, August17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
International Falls, MN

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 8:22PM Saturday August 17, 2019 8:16 AM CDT (13:16 UTC) Moonrise 8:44PMMoonset 7:04AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near International Falls, MN
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location: 48.58, -93.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 171135
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
635 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019

Short term (today through Sunday)
issued at 356 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early
Sunday morning as a cold front slides through. Isolated severe
storms cannot be ruled out late this afternoon into this evening
across north central minnesota.

A ridge will slide eastward from the upper mississippi river
valley early this morning into the central great lakes this
afternoon. This will keep skies relatively clear through much of
the morning and into the early afternoon. Any fog that developed
early this morning will dissipate as the mixed layer grows and
winds pick up.

A trough will dig from southern alberta into the northern plains
today. This will slide a cold front across the eastern dakotas
into minnesota, which will bring increasing cloud cover this
afternoon and evening. In addition, there will be increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms. The pressure gradient will
tighten over the region and this will bring gusty southwest winds.

Deterministic models continue to slow down the progression of
precipitation. This is reflected in the latest forecast with a
slower onset of precipitation in comparison to previous forecasts.

Expect around 1000-2000 j kg of CAPE late this afternoon into
early this evening. Behind the front is where the 40+ knot deep
layer shear resides, which is decoupled from the instability.

However, it does look like there may be a few hour period where
the two line up and this could bring isolated severe storms over
north central minnesota. This matches up well with the latest spc
day 1 outlook. Main threats with any stronger storms would be
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Expect milder readings today
in comparison to yesterday due to strong southwesterly warm air
advection ahead of the incoming front. Highs range from the upper
70s to the mid 80s.

The cold front will slide through the region overnight into early
Sunday. This will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms. Am
not as concerned about flooding at this point in time due to the
progressive nature of the front, but if storms train over the same
area then a few spots could see some flooding. Showers and
thunderstorms should end across much of the northland by Sunday
morning. Behind the front high pressure will build in from the
northern plains as a ridge axis moves in. Aloft winds will become
northwesterly, which will advect cooler air into the region. This
will bring cooler temperatures with highs ranging from the low to
mid 70s on Sunday. Expect gusty winds to develop mid to late in
the morning and persist through the afternoon due to the mixed
layer tapping into the stronger winds aloft behind the departing
cold front.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday)
issued at 356 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
the extended will start out with high pressure moving over the
northland Sunday night into Monday in the wake of the low cold
front. Highs Monday will be in the upper seventies to around eighty.

The models agree another cold front will move into the area Monday
night, continuing east of the area by Tuesday evening. Most of the
upper support remains north of the international border. There will
be enough forcing along the front for a chance for showers and
thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. Highs Tuesday will be in
the seventies. Cooler temperatures will start to move in later
Tuesday and especially Tuesday night behind the front. Wednesday
will be dry for most areas with highs in the upper sixties to mid

The upper flow will become more zonal late in the week with the gfs
suggesting a stronger shortwave will occur over the west causing the
upper flow to become more southwest over the weekend. A weak frontal
boundary will be over or just northwest of the northland Friday
(depending on the model) with warm air advection occurring Thursday
into Friday. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms
late in the week into the weekend with highs from the mid seventies
to around eighty.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 634 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
a cold front stretched from eastern manitoba through eastern north
dakota into central south dakota early this morning. Mostly clear
skies over the northland overnight and has led to areas of fog
and stratus. The fog stratus will lift between 12z and 14z. The
front will move slowly east today into tonight with chances for
showers and storms moving into the northland later today and
especially tonight. A few strong storms are possible, mainly over
western portions of the northland. Ceilings will lower tonight to
MVFR with possible ifr.

Winds are expected to be mainly south southwest today and they
will be gusty over northern minnesota. The wind will veer to west
to northwest behind the front late tonight into Sunday.

Issued at 356 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
an area of high pressure will move off to the southeast today with
winds less than 12 knots for most areas. This will allow the wind
direction to be variable at times today into tonight. Today will be
dry but a cold front will move into the northland tonight and move
through western lake superior on Sunday. There will be a chance for
showers and storms along this front tonight into Sunday. The wind
will turn westerly behind the front on Sunday and continue into
Sunday night with speeds less than 15 knots.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 81 59 74 51 0 50 50 0
inl 83 54 72 52 50 70 40 10
brd 82 58 73 52 20 60 30 0
hyr 81 60 76 49 0 60 50 0
asx 83 61 77 52 0 50 50 0

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Wl
long term... Melde
aviation... Melde
marine... Melde

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Falls International Airport, MN0 mi82 minN 010.00 miFair59°F57°F93%1005.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KINL

Wind History from INL (wind in knots)
Last 24hr--4CalmSW5W7SW7W6W9W44W4NW4--W3------CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW4SW5W5SW7SW10
2 days agoCalmE3CalmN4E4S353CalmNW5W3W4CalmCalmSW4CalmSW3SW4SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.