Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 12:34 PM   Moonset 3:28 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS63 KDLH 172344 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 644 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering rain showers will slowly wane and exit the region tonight.
Another 0.1-0.2” of rain is possible in the heavier showers.

- Cold front on Thursday brings with it temperatures 5-15 F cooler than normal for this time of year.

- Potential for a messy setup early next week as a shortwave moves through the area with temperatures hovering around freezing.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Short Term:

An occluded low pressure that has been bringing us rain and dreary weather for the last 24 hours will continue to impart some final rain showers and drizzle before it moves off to the northeast. As of 1pm, scattered rain showers are present across North-Central Minnesota with the heaviest and more widespread rain located near/along the Minnesota Arrowhead and into NW Wisconsin along the South Shore. With strong SE flow aloft of an airmass with PWATs near 0.8-0.9”, some locales along the North Shore could see an additional 0.2” of rainfall through tonight before the best lift and moisture transport moves north of the border into Canada. Drier conditions will persist into tonight with lows in the mid to upper 30s which is typical for this time of the year.

Extended Range:

By midday Thursday, a cold front will completely move through the area. Before the front moves through the area, areas east of I-35 look to warm into the upper 40s in advance of the front.
However, once the front completely moves through the area by afternoon, temperatures area wide will drop back into the mid 30s before bottoming out in the upper 20s/lower 30s early Friday Morning. Both Friday and Saturday will be relatively similar in how they play out with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. There is a low chance (20-30%) of some snow showers late on Friday and into Saturday Morning but no notable impacts are expected at this time. Sunday will be a bit on the milder side with temperatures rebounding into the upper 40s and lower 50s. The start of the next week is where models diverge on their potential solutions. There is agreement that a shortwave will move through the Northern Plains and into the Northern Great Lakes sometime Monday and into Tuesday. With marginal cold air and the potential for the event to traverse through the night, there are concerns about precipitation types. With that being said, it’s too far out to get into the weeds about this storm system as it is still 5+ days out.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

MVFR ceilings for most across NE Minnesota into NW Wisconsin, with some MVFR visibility in the MN Arrowhead for the next few hours as rain/drizzle exits east. VFR ceilings/visibilities gradually work in from west to east with clouds scattering out tonight for most outside of NW WI. There is a 10-20% chance for IFR visibilities to develop in fog tonight at INL/HIB/DLH/HYR due to moisture from the rain/drizzle from today, but confidence was too low to include in the TAFs at this time.
Northwest winds this evening turn light out of the west tonight, but increase on daytime Thursday with sustained winds of 12-17 knots and gusts of 20-25 knots, strongest in the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Winds will turn from northeasterly into westerly tonight as the low pressure that caused gales exits. Waves will remain high, but will fall below 4 feet overnight. Winds and waves will pick back up as the westerly increase Thursday afternoon. Westerly gales become possible Friday as the pressure gradient increases again.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ140>142.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ143>148-150.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Duluth, MN,