Saturday, August8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
International Falls, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:36PM Saturday August 8, 2020 4:05 AM CDT (09:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:06PMMoonset 10:03AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near International Falls, MN
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location: 48.58, -93.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 080523 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1223 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

An MCV this afternoon was just north of Fargo and was moving east to northeast but should take on a more easterly movement with time. This feature will be a focus for additional showers/storms this afternoon into tonight across the Northland along with persistent low level warm/moisture advection. The SPC Analysis Page indicated MUCAPE values ranged from 500 J/KG over our eastern area to 1500 J/KG west with MLCAPE values from 500-1000 J/KG and these values will rise further over the next few hours. Deep layer shear is lacking initially with effective shear values less than 20 knots as of 20Z. These values are forecast to rise to 25 to 35 knots this evening as the low level jet increases and the MCV moves closer. The CAMs are in general agreement but are not handling the current activity very well. They show storms increasing in coverage and strength between 7 PM and 9 PM over our western zones, which may be too slow. They then forecast the storms to evolve into a line with a bowing structure. Severe storms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight, with the main threat strong winds. Secondary threats will be hail and possibly a tornado, especially if discreet storms occur. Hodographs looks supportive of a tornado in the low levels and if we get stronger deep layer shear and discreet storms, the threat will increase. In addition to the severe threat will be heavy rainfall. Some of the guidance suggests 2 to 4 inches of rain could occur with locally higher amounts. Flash Flood Guidance is roughly from 2.5 to 3 inches across much of central into northern Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin.

The storms will move through the Northland tonight and may be ongoing Saturday morning, especially over eastern areas. They will diminish in coverage through the day but weak low level convergence will keep some showers/storms going into the afternoon over the eastern half of the Northland. They will then end for most areas in the evening. Expect highs in the lower to mid eighties for most areas Saturday with dewpoints in the mid sixties to lower seventies. Chances for showers/storms will increase again late Saturday night as a shortwave moves into the region from the southwest. Confidence in shower/storm coverage is not very high as there are some significant timing/strength differences between the models.

LONG TERM. (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

A moist and unstable airmass will be in place Sunday with PWAT values 1.5 to 1.7 inches per the GFS and surface dewpoints are expected to be in the upper sixties to lower seventies. A shortwave and cold front will move through the region Sunday into Sunday night. Storms may be ongoing Sunday over portions of the Northland but guidance is mixed on a lead shortwave with the ECMWF slower and further south of the GFS. A better chance for showers/storms will occur Sunday afternoon and night and some of the storms could be severe. The ECMWF forecasts lower MUCAPE values than the GFS and was 1000-2000 J/KG versus the GFS which is 2 to 3 times higher. The Canadian is a compromise. The higher shear values will occur behind the front but will be from 30 to 35 knots ahead which will be adequate for a severe threat.

A dry period will develop Monday into Tuesday as lower humidity returns to the region behind the front. We bring chances for showers/storms back into the forecast mid to late week as the upper flow begins to back in response to a western upper trough. Dewpoints will begin going back up late in the week with lower to mid sixties by Thursday.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

A slow moving thunderstorm complex is migrating through northern MN tonight. This system has lost a little bit of its initial strength but still retains heavy rainfall and frequent lightening. INL stays in the clear of this storms path and based on the latest radar trends BRD may come away with just some vicinity thunder. Storms will continue to impact HIB/DLH and eventually HYR. Most locations will experience MVFR ceilings as this system passes through the terminals. Model guidance has a varied assortment of cloud decks with some dropping into IFR range, confidence in cloud heights is not high at this time. Additionally, some areas could produce patchy fog after the system rolls out.

Clouds will linger through much of the day tomorrow with a chance of a few isolated rain showers. VFR conditions return Saturday afternoon before what looks to be a very active weather day for Sunday.

MARINE. Issued at 937 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

A large thunderstorm complex is working its way east this evening and will make its way into western Lake Superior after midnight. There is still some uncertainty as to how much strength the storm will have by the time it makes it to the head of the Lake. Thus far, the main threats have been excessive lightening and large hail. Winds in general are expected to be less then 15kts across the lake, but locally increased winds from the storm moving through cannot be ruled out. Saturday could see some isolated storm threat across the lake primarily in the afternoon hours. Sunday is the next day we are keeping an eye out on for possibly severe storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 63 82 62 80 / 70 40 20 60 INL 65 82 54 83 / 60 20 10 50 BRD 69 84 62 83 / 90 30 20 70 HYR 65 83 65 85 / 80 50 20 60 ASX 64 86 64 85 / 70 60 20 60

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . None.

SHORT TERM . Melde LONG TERM . Melde AVIATION . Britt/GSF MARINE . Britt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Falls International Airport, MN0 mi71 minSSW 310.00 miOvercast65°F63°F93%1009.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KINL

Wind History from INL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE5SE5SE4SE55SE10
G16
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4S345SE5E4SE3S3CalmS3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW54SW5SW7SW8
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6S63S4CalmSE3SE4----3SE3
2 days agoCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmW4W5CalmW5Calm3CalmSW65--SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.