Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
International Falls, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 4:23PM Sunday December 15, 2019 12:25 PM CST (18:25 UTC) Moonrise 8:05PMMoonset 11:02AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near International Falls, MN
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location: 48.58, -93.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 151744 AAD AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Duluth MN 1144 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Update for new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 923 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Clouds are on the increase across the area this morning and have beefed up the cloud cover. Added some flurries in north central Wisconsin for a few hours. Made some other minor adjustments.

SHORT TERM. (Today through Monday) Issued at 426 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

A ridge of high pressure over northern Minnesota this morning has allowed temperatures to plummet over western portions of the forecast area. Temperatures have fallen to around 25 below in some places so far, and will not be surprised to see a handful of locations approaching 30 below once all the observations come in. Farther east, light north flow has become northwest and become very light, and while there are lake effect clouds along the south shore of Lake Superior, it does not appear that they are getting more than a few light snow showers or flurries under those clouds. While get pressure gradient implies there should be northwest to west flow over the area, most surface observations are west or even southwest, and are generally less than 10 knots. The exception is the north shore, where drainage/katabatic winds have been accelerating winds along the shoreline and out into the lake, with winds gusting over 25 knots at times, as shown on the Grand Marais Harbor AWOS. Both of these wind effects should slowly diminish this morning as the surface ridge axis slowly slides east and allows southwest flow to strengthen over the area this afternoon. The leading edge of this warm air advection is the mid level clouds that have spread into western Minnesota, which should continue to spread east today. With the very cold start that we will have this morning and the increasing cloud cover today, it will remain a cold day with highs only in the single digits. Late this afternoon and evening the models are depicting a surge of warm moist air that moves across the area, some of which are squeezing out some small pops over our western CWA. Where this warm moist surge is this morning is producing some light snow showers over central North Dakota, have decided to maintain some slight chance pops this afternoon and evening over the western CWA, but weakening that as it moves farther east into the dry airmass we will have over the area. A weak cold front moves through the forecast area tonight, which should also bring some chances for snow to the area during the overnight hours, mainly for areas north of the Iron Range. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. The cloud cover will keep temperatures from dropping off like they have tonight, but it will still be cold with lows in the single digits below zero. Monday remains quiet with the weak cold front continuing to slide east over the area and a small high pressure ridge building over the forecast area in the afternoon. Temperatures will moderate, but we are still only looking at highs in the single digits to teens above zero.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 426 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Quiet conditions will continue to prevail through the extended with no major systems currently expected. There will be a few shots at light snow and lake effect for the South Shore of Lake Superior, but the overall forecast is dry as temperatures warm to near to above normal levels for Thursday into the weekend.

High pressure will pass to our south Monday night as another weak shortwave and surface cold front move out of Canada and through the Northland during the morning hours Tuesday. Models are in a bit better agreement than they were yesterday in bringing some light snow showers to the region, but no accumulations are expected with this wave. However, northwest winds behind the surface cold front will lead to lake effect snow showers, primarily across the Iron County snowbelt for Tuesday into Tuesday night, especially with Arctic air spilling into the region in the wake of the cold front. This may lead to an inch or two of accumulation before ending early Wednesday morning. Very cold temperatures will be in place Wednesday morning as cold Arctic high pressure passes overhead. Lows will be in the teens below zero across Minnesota with slightly warmer readings in northwest Wisconsin.

Northwest flow will persist for Wednesday with another wave skirting through the Borderland Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with low chances for light snow. Heading into Thursday, upper ridging begins to move in allowing warmer air to move into the Northland. Overall forecast confidence outside of the warmer temperatures remains lower heading into the weekend as the models are not handling a trough/closed low working through the Mississippi Valley very well. The GFS is the strongest of the models, but keeps most of the affects to the south of our area. Winds ahead of this feature are southerly/southeasterly, so that may lead to some lake effect snows along the North Shore of Lake Superior, but with the warmer temperatures aloft, that reduces the likelihood of this occurring. Temperatures Friday into the weekend will continue to run above normal with perhaps a few spots in northwest Wisconsin possibly reaching the freezing mark by Sunday.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

A compact shortwave trough will move across northern Minnesota and over western Lake Superior this afternoon and tonight. Upstream observations suggest a period of light with MVFR ceilings and visibility. Behind the initial period of snow, light snow and flurries may continue off and on for the next several hours. Look for ceilings to remain in the MVFR range for most sites through late tomorrow morning as low-level moisture remains overhead.

MARINE. Issued at 1026 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Winds will back southwesterly over western Lake Superior today and wind speeds will increase as an area of surface high pressure passes to the south and the pressure gradient tightens this afternoon. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 knots are expected and a few gusts to 25 knots are possible tonight, mainly for waters on the northern and northwestern portions of the Bayfield Peninsula. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed. Winds will subside Monday morning.

Attention then shifts to a cold front and a period of strong northwest winds Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds will start from the west and will veer northwesterly by late Tuesday morning. Wind speeds increase to 10 to 20 knots with gusts 25 to 30 knots possible. The strongest winds will be along the South Shore. The wind speeds will decrease late Tuesday night and winds will back southwesterly by late Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 7 -1 11 -2 / 10 10 0 10 INL 8 -3 7 -2 / 20 30 0 20 BRD 8 0 11 0 / 20 10 0 0 HYR 9 -1 15 -2 / 10 10 10 0 ASX 11 3 15 2 / 10 10 10 20

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . None.

UPDATE . GSF SHORT TERM . LE LONG TERM . BJH AVIATION . Huyck MARINE . Huyck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Falls International Airport, MN0 mi31 minSSE 310.00 miOvercast-5°F-9°F79%1018.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KINL

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Last 24hrNW9NW9NW10NW9NW6NW6NW7W4CalmW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmS3SE3SE3
1 day agoE6NE4NE6E4NE3NE3CalmCalmNW4NW5NW6NW10NW11NW11NW12NW11NW9NW11NW9NW7NW7NW10NW7NW8
2 days agoNE4NE6NE5NE3NE3NE4NE4E5E3E5E5E4E4E5E6E5E5E6E6E4E5E7E7E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.