Marine Weather and Tides
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 6:55AM||Sunset 7:37PM||Saturday March 28, 2020 5:57 PM CDT (22:57 UTC)||Moonrise 8:04AM||Moonset 11:12PM||Illumination 23%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near International Falls, MNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KDLH 282023 AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 323 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
SHORT TERM. (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
The well-advertised spring storm system will be moving into the region this afternoon and evening, bringing a rain/snow mix to the region. Initially, precipitation type will be as all rain, with a transition to a rain/snow mix this evening, then nearly all snow overnight. This evening through Sunday morning will be the main time frame for wet, heavy snow accumulations. It appears that some of the latest guidance, particularly the 28.12z HREF, is indicating a slightly later transition onset from rain to snow. Much of the guidance was indicating phase change occurring late this afternoon, but the latest guidance is indicating more in the mid-evening hours, around 02z to 04z. However, it appears that the higher-resolution models are going with a good bit more snow compared to the global models, such as the GFS and ECMWF. The ensemble mean of these models for total snowfall near Ashland are in the 2 to 4 inch range, while the high-resolution ensemble means are much higher, between 7 to 9 inches, especially for Douglas and Bayfield counties in northwest Wisconsin. In total, we are expecting widespread 4 to 9 inches of snow possible. Due to the increase in snow amounts, we have decided to upgrade the Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for these two counties.
We are still anticipating very strong northeast flow tonight as the surface low approaches the region, and a tight surface pressure gradient sets up. Gusts between 25 to 35 mph are expected, strongest along the shoreline of western Lake Superior, especially along the South Shore where gusts up to 40 mph will be possible. This will lead to the potential for lakeshore flooding. Lakeshore Flood Warnings and Advisories remain in effect. One additional concern we have with this northeast flow is on the potential for ice shoves developing onshore of Chequamegon Bay along US Highway 2 near and west of Ashland. Moreover, rainfall amounts over northwest Wisconsin have increased, with most locations seeing between 1 to 2+ inches of precipitation. This will likely lead to rises in area creeks, streams, and rivers. This rain, coupled with recent snowmelt and fairly saturated soils, will lead to the potential for basement flooding, as well as ponding of water on clogged storm drains. We will update our current Hydrologic Outlook to message this threat.
Eventually, this precipitation will transition back to rain during the day Sunday, and gradually exit the region Sunday afternoon and evening. The latest global models are indicating an 850-700 mb level deformation zone that will linger through Sunday morning. We have maintained higher PoPs due to the lingering nature of precipitation into the afternoon hours over northeast Minnesota, and northwest Wisconsin into the evening. As this system departs to the east, winds will turn more northerly and weaken. There may be a bit of a gravity wave signature that will develop into Sunday afternoon, but p-type should remain as rain. Eventually, precipitation will diminish entirely late Sunday night as drier air filters in from the west, along with a ridge of high pressure. This high pressure looks to bring much calmer conditions for Monday.
LONG TERM. (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
The main concern for the long term periods is the potential for wintry mixed precipitation Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will be over western Ontario and the Upper Midwest Monday morning with fair conditions expected through the first few days of the week. Weak flow at the surface and aloft over the Northland should support the potential for lake breezes pushing inland from Lake Superior each day and will keep max temps limited near the lake with abrupt cool downs during the afternoon hours. Elsewhere look for temperatures to climb into the upper 40s and low 50s.
A closed upper-level low will move into the Canadian Prairies during the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday with a 300 mb jet streak nosing into South Dakota and Nebraska by 12Z. A cold front will move down the lee side of the Canadian Rockies and into the Northern Plains setting up an arcing baroclinic zone from the western Great Lakes into northwest Ontario and Manitoba and south into the western Dakotas and Manitoba. Precipitation will develop along and ahead of the cold front in response to isentropic forcing for ascent and frontogenesis. A wintry mix of rain and snow is expected over the Northland Wednesday and Wednesday night as the trough and associated forcing mechanisms move through the region. With most of the precipitation falling during daylight hours, any snow accumulation will be higher on grassy/snow covered surfaces versus roadways.
The closed upper low will meander eastward through the remainder of the week keeping clouds and snow or rain shower chances in forecast through the end of the week along with cooler temperatures.
AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
A strong area of low pressure will move through the western Great Lakes this afternoon and tonight. Strong winds aloft will produce low-level wind shear at the terminals overnight into Sunday. Precipitation will develop and spread northeastward across most of the terminals, except INL, this afternoon and evening. Rain will be the precipitation type initially with a change to snow occurring later. Moderate to occasionally heavy snow is expected at DLH and HYR with lighter precipitation rates at HIB and BRD. Precipitation will gradually taper off from southwest to northeast Sunday morning, but think we'll keep light precip in the picture until after 18Z.
MARINE. Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
An area of low pressure located over western Iowa this afternoon will move through the region to northern Lower Michigan by 00Z Monday. The pressure gradient over western Lake Superior will tighten tonight and will produce strong northeast winds. Strong winds aloft will be able to mix down to the surface resulting in gale-force gusts. The strongest winds will occur in the southwest arm of Lake Superior, between the North Shore and Bayfield Peninsula. Small Craft Advisory and Gale Warning still look good and no changes have been made. As low moves over northeast Wisconsin and over Lake Michigan on Sunday, winds will back northerly and wind speeds and gusts will decrease. Conditions will likely remain hazardous to smaller vessels through Sunday afternoon and additional advisories will likely be needed after the Gale Warning expires. High pressure will settle over the region for Monday and Monday night with northerly winds veering northeasterly at 5 to 15 knots.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 33 44 27 45 / 100 100 10 0 INL 28 49 21 49 / 0 0 0 0 BRD 33 47 25 51 / 80 70 0 0 HYR 34 43 28 51 / 100 80 60 0 ASX 33 42 29 43 / 100 100 80 0
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday for WIZ003-004-006-007.
Lakeshore Flood Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for WIZ001.
Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon CDT Sunday for WIZ002>004.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday for WIZ001-002.
MN . Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ012-019>021-035>038.
Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ020.
Lakeshore Flood Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ037.
LS . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 140>148.
Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-140>148.
SHORT TERM . JTS LONG TERM . Huyck AVIATION . Huyck MARINE . Huyck
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|Falls International Airport, MN||0 mi||62 min||ENE 7||10.00 mi||Fair||49°F||21°F||35%||1011.7 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KINL
Wind History from INL (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||W||W||W||W||SW||SW||Calm||SW||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||S||S|
|2 days ago||N||N||N||NE||N||NE||NE||NE||NE||Calm||Calm||E||E||Calm||SE||SE||SW||SW||S||SW|
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (18,4,5,8)(on/off)  Help
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