Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oroville, WA

SYNOPSIS
A ridge of high pressure will flatten today through the weekend as a couple of shortwaves pass over the region. This will promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions, with Red Flag Warnings remaining in effect for much of the region.
Widespread smoke and haze will continue throughout the area today, and while westerly winds are expected to bring some improvement to the region this afternoon through the later half of the weekend, wildfire smoke will continue to impact the region, especially in the vicinity of or downwind of regional wildfires. A quasi- zonal upper-level pattern will continue into next week, keeping periods of breezy westerly winds in place, but will bring some slightly cooler temperatures to the region.

DISCUSSION
Rest of Today and Sunday: Widespread Red Flag conditions continue for much of the Inland Northwest today into early Sunday as a shortwave trough continues to race through the region.
Overall, expect west- southwest winds around 10-20 with gusts around 18-25 mph in most locations under the Red Flag Warning.
The one exception will be the Cascade gaps where wind gusts in the evening will be higher, generally around 25-40 mph. Fires in Chelan and Okanogan County will be well ventilated with westerly flow aloft and will have favorable weather conditions for significant growth throughout the afternoon and evening hours. The smoke output from these fires may knock temperatures down a few degrees in eastern WA and north ID and locations close to the fire, reducing fire risk slightly. Needless to say, avoid any activities that may cause sparks as fuels are near/at record dryness levels for this time of year. HRRR near surface smoke output is still showing impressive concentrations this evening and overnight hours downwind in the eastern third of WA and north Idaho. If this were to occur, air quality will continue to degrade. Another push of Cascade gap winds will occur Sunday afternoon and evening as another shortwave traverses the region, leading to once again, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in the Wenatchee area and Waterville Plateau with gusts around 20-35 mph and relative humidity around 18-25 percent. The wildcard is smoke reducing temperatures in those areas, which would help with reducing fire risk.

Monday through Saturday: Zonal flow will continue through Tuesday, bringing near normal temperatures and breezy winds to the Cascade gaps in the evenings. There are some changes on Wednesday as our first chance of precipitation in a few weeks returns near the Canadian border as a broad shortwave trough approaches from the north. There continues to remain a 10-20% chance of showers (with very little precipitation expected) as this system moves through. There is a small chance (10-20%) of thunderstorms in northeast WA and north ID as this system slowly departs Thursday. Again, confidence is low in this pattern but it is worth discussing since it'll be the first precip chances in a while. Ensembles are hinting towards above normal temperatures returning late next week but with troughing setting up off the coast this raises concerns for thunderstorms.

/DB-Mazurkiewicz

AVIATION
00Z TAFs: Visibilities and ceilings due to smoke continued to be degraded this afternoon - largely with MVFR/IFR conditions across the area. Locations in and around KGEG are seeing visibility's around 2-4 SM, while other terminal locations are seeing generally 6 SM with haze. Increasing W/NW winds across the region continues this afternoon with gusts up to 20-25 kt possible across the Basin and up to 25 kts at KEAT and along the gaps in the Cascades. Winds will peak this evening, and will ease late tonight. Localized lowered visibility's are likely throughout the evening along with VFR/MVFR conditions across most terminals.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in smoke and haze continuing to impact the area terminals today, but low confidence in extent of reduced vis/cigs. Moderate confidence in the winds.

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Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
Spokane 57 88 57 87 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 55 87 55 85 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 50 84 49 83 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 61 92 59 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 49 89 49 88 47 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 52 85 52 84 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 54 84 53 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 56 90 56 89 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 64 91 64 90 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 58 91 59 91 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse - Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area- Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
Red Flag Warning until 6 AM PDT Sunday for East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698).
ID...Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Coeur d'Alene Area-Northern Panhandle.
Air Quality Alert until 3 PM PDT Monday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.