Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Blaine, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 4:15PM Thursday December 12, 2019 11:17 PM PST (07:17 UTC) Moonrise 4:55PMMoonset 8:21AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 829 Pm Pst Thu Dec 12 2019
Tonight..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Rain likely in the evening then a chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..SW wind to 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the morning then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. A chance of rain.
Sat..SE wind to 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..Light wind becoming N to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..E wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..E wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 829 Pm Pst Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Winds will ease overnight in the wake of a frontal passage. A weak surface ridge will build over the coastal waters on Friday and persist into the weekend for a transition to quieter conditions across area waters. Low level offshore flow is expected to develop early next week as surface ridging builds east of the cascades.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blaine, WA
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location: 49, -122.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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FXUS66 KSEW 130431 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 831 PM PST Thu Dec 12 2019

UPDATE. The forecast remains largely on track this evening with minimal changes needed.

A disturbed upper level pattern remains in place, with another frontal boundary gradually passing eastward across the local area this evening. Similar to yesterday, this frontal system brought widespread lowland rain and mountain snow to the area out ahead it, with precipitation becoming more spotty & scattered in its wake. This scattered activity will stick with us through the overnight hours before becoming even more limited in coverage thru the day Friday. A few things of note tonight:

Periods of heavy snow will continue across the Cascades through the overnight hours tonight. Observations over the past few hours show an additional light snow accumulation for Snoqualmie Pass with Stevens Pass picking up a good several inches. Radar imagery from KATX and MRMS data reveal a convergent-type band stretching across southern Snohomish County into far northern King County. Some of the precip from the band is impacting Stevens Pass and will likely cause additional trouble on roadways over the next few hours. The heaviest precip in the band is seen further west along HWY2 roughly from Monroe to Gold Bar. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is likely in this area within the strongest banding. Will monitor the progression of the heaviest banding if it develops towards Stevens Pass, as that could allow for a period of very heavy snowfall. Winter Storm Warning headlines remain in place this evening and will continue through Friday morning. The Winter Weather Advisory for the Olympics will expire at 9 PM tonight and this appears reasonable based on radar trends. Some light snow showers may still linger through Friday morning across the Olympics but impactful accumulations seem unlikely overnight/Fri morning.

The other forecast concern this evening is thunder potential. Latest SPC mesoanalysis for MUCAPE shows most notable instability across the Olympic Peninsula, southern CWA, and the coastal waters. Based on radar trends the last few hours, think potential is minimal, but given unstable post frontal environment combined with mid level lapse rates between 7-8C/km, an isolated lightning strike or brief shower of small hail cannot be entirely ruled out. This may even occur east of the area of highlighted "best" MUCAPE given the environment in place.

Although the weather will remain unsettled through the remainder of the work week, conditions are not expected to be as impactful overall as today and yesterday. Previous discussion provided below:

Kovacik

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 248 PM PST Thu Dec 12 2019/

SYNOPSIS. A frontal system will move east of the area tonight with cool and unsettled weather Friday and Saturday. A weak warm front will result in some areas of light rain on Sunday. Upper level ridging will likely support a generally dry start to next week followed by a return to potentially active weather later in the week.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Heavier precipitation associated with the front is working into the interior and coast as of 22Z. This will shift north and east through the afternoon and evening hours. The main impact will be a period of heavier snowfall with the front the mountains this afternoon and evening with significant accumulations above 3500 feet. Snow showers will continue behind the front through Friday morning tapering off through the afternoon hours. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 18 inches above 3500 feet through Friday morning with a few higher amounts in some locations. The winter storm warning remains in effect through 10 AM.

There continues to be enough instability for the potential for thunderstorms, mainly along the coast through the evening hours. Otherwise expect scattered showers and limited rainfall over the lowlands into Friday morning behind the front. Shower activity will decrease further Friday afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 40s. The upper level trough trailing the front will linger over the area Friday night into Saturday keeping showers over the area. Lows in the upper 30s and 40s. Highs in the mid and upper 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Medium range models continue to show an upper level ridge building over the eastern Pacific Sunday with some warm advection over Western Washington which may result in some light rain, mainly during the day. Guidance continues to show the upper level ridge shifting onshore Sunday night into Monday and lingering at least through the early part of next week. This is pretty solidly reinforced by the ensembles with uncertainty regarding the timing of the transition and the strength of the ridge as it shifts onshore. The uncertainty associated with the strength of the ridge is significant since it highlights the potential for a few, weak systems passing over the ridge to bring at least a chance of precipitation to Western Washington at times in the extended period. If this occurs it is more likely to be little more than these systems brushing the area as they pass to the north. Ensembles do show the large scale pattern shifting later in the week as the upper level ridge shifting eastward possibly setting the stage for a bit more active weather.

AVIATION. A frontal boundary continues eastward this evening across western Washington. With its passage, precipitation is becoming more scattered. Rain continues to plague many of the TAF sites at the time of this writing and will likely continue to do so into the overnight hours. Coverage is then expected to gradually decrease through the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. Thunder potential appears limited now, with best instability near the coast. Ceilings currently are a mix of mainly MVFR and VFR (with a few reports of IFR) and this trend should carry with us through the overnight hours. Confidence on significant improvement thru the day tomorrow is low, as a mix of MVFR and VFR may linger. Winds will be less breezy this TAF cycle-with south winds mainly 8-12 knots most terminals.

KSEA . Spotty periods of rain thru the overnight, with coverage decreasing through the day Friday. Ceilings likely to wiggle between MVFR and VFR, with the best chance for sub-VFR conditions overnight tonight. Winds south 8-12kts.

Kovacik

MARINE. No significant changes were needed to the forecast this evening. Winds will continue to diminish overnight, with the biggest forecast concern over the next 24 hours being hazardous seas off the coast. Current headlines highlighting this threat appear fine at this time. Previous discussion included:

Small craft advisory winds easing overnight over the coastal waters in the wake of today's frontal passage. Coastal seas will remain in the double digits into Friday and Saturday for a continuation of small craft advisory hazardous seas criteria as well as high surf at the coastal beaches. Gusty post-frontal southwesterlies will necessitate the small craft advisory for Puget Sound and Hood Canal to extend until around midnight.

A weak surface ridge will build over the coastal waters and persist into the weekend for a transition to quieter conditions across area waters. Low level offshore flow is expected to develop early next week as surface ridging builds east of the Cascades.

Kovacik/27

HYDROLOGY. There are no flooding concerns at this time. Relatively low snow levels and limited precipitation amounts will result in little or no impacts on area rivers.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WA . Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Friday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.

High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for Central Coast- North Coast.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Olympics.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Puget Sound and Hood Canal.



www.weather.gov/seattle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 9 mi54 min 1015.6 hPa
CPNW1 9 mi60 min SSW 18 G 20 47°F
CPMW1 10 mi54 min SSW 17 G 21 47°F
46118 22 mi83 min 44°F 1015.4 hPa44°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 34 mi42 min 48°F1015.8 hPa
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 40 mi48 min SSW 1.9 43°F 1016 hPa43°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 47 mi18 min E 5.1 G 6 46°F 1016.5 hPa42°F

Wind History for Cherry Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA19 mi25 minS 10 G 1510.00 miOvercast47°F39°F77%1016.8 hPa
Eastsound, Orcas Island Airport, WA21 mi23 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast45°F44°F100%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLI

Wind History from BLI (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmE4CalmE4E6NE5E3NE4NE6N3NE5NE3NE5NE3N3N4NE5N4N3

Tide / Current Tables for Blaine, Semiahmoo Bay, Washington (2)
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Blaine
Click for Map
Fri -- 07:14 AM PST     3.13 meters High Tide
Fri -- 07:56 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:24 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:21 PM PST     2.20 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 04:13 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:20 PM PST     2.64 meters High Tide
Fri -- 05:49 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.20.41.11.92.52.93.13.12.82.62.32.22.22.42.52.62.62.41.91.30.6-0-0.5

Tide / Current Tables for Matia Island, 0.8 mile West of, Washington Current
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Matia Island
Click for MapFlood direction 350 true
Ebb direction 206 true

Fri -- 01:01 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:52 AM PST     2.56 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:22 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:56 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:23 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:33 AM PST     -0.94 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:01 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:22 PM PST     0.45 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:40 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:15 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:51 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:40 PM PST     -2.46 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-01.32.32.62.21.40.4-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.4-00.4-0.2-0.7-1.2-1.7-2.1-2.4-2.4-2.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.