Friday, January15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Blaine, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:57AMSunset 4:44PM Friday January 15, 2021 1:40 PM PST (21:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:58AMMoonset 7:42PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 908 Am Pst Fri Jan 15 2021
Today..W wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..S wind to 10 kt becoming se after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..E wind to 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less in the morning becoming less than 1 ft.
Sat night..SE wind to 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W wind 5 to 15 kt becoming 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Mon..N wind to 10 kt becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S wind to 10 kt becoming w. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 908 Am Pst Fri Jan 15 2021
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..High pressure will move over the area today for lighter winds. Another frontal system will traverse area waters Saturday night through Sunday bringing another round of winds and increasing seas before high pressure and calmer conditions prevail again early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blaine, WA
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location: 49, -122.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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FXUS66 KSEW 151749 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 950 AM PST Fri Jan 15 2021

SYNOPSIS. An exiting cold front will allow for a few lingering showers this morning, otherwise dry conditions are expected for Western Washington today and into Saturday. The next front moves through Saturday night with another round of precipitation. An upper level ridge sets up over the area early next week bringing dry conditions through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The exiting cold front probably best seen on satellite imagery . as some clearing is starting to take place over the NW portion of the CWA. Radar continues to show some very weak echoes, likely to be sprinkles/drizzle/mist/light rain . or, the short version, minor precip. Dry conditions and clearing skies still expected for the afternoon area-wide. This will continue through most of the day Saturday as upper level ridging traverses over into E WA. Next frontal system expected Saturday night into Sunday morning looks to be very much akin to the front that moved through last night/this morning . quick moving, fairly weak with not much in the way of precip expected and likely game over by the afternoon.

Daytime highs in the short term offer little in the way of variation with most lowland locations reaching the upper 40s to around 50.

Inherited forecast handles all of the above well and will not be needing any sort of morning update at this time. 18

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. From Previous Discussion . A dry start to the work week is expected as an area of high pressure centered off the Northern California coast extends its upper level ridge over Western Washington. Both deterministic and ensemble models are bit conflicted about how an upper level low will track through British Columbia starting Tuesday afternoon. While models are in agreement that the low will be centered to the north of Washington, they cannot decide on how the associated fronts will behave. Some have this front breaking apart and weakening which would result in less precipitation, others have what would be a pretty typical frontal system moving through the area. Either way things precipitation will be fairly light for the area, and we expect a dry Wednesday.

Now, for the part of the discussion that all the winter weather lovers have been waiting for: the potential for lowland snow towards the end of the week.

Based on the fact that models are not yet on a consensus for the weather system on Tuesday, we cannot have high confidence in what they are forecasting for day 7 onward. That said, both the GFS and ECMWF as well as their corresponding ensembles have temperatures dropping towards the end of the week. Which is a good sign if you are wanting the more wintery precipitation. However, guidance keeps pushing back the start to these more wintery conditions. However, the differing models as well as the ensembles are in more of an agreement on a positively tilted trough setting up over the state of Washington, which would bring in that north/northeasterly wind which is beneficial for snow in the area, but as it stands right now daytime temperatures are still a bit too high for snow in the lowlands. Moreover, the probability of precipitation is below 50%. With all that said, we are still in the wait and see pattern. Things should become a lot clearer in the coming days.

Butwin

AVIATION. Light precipitation echoes are traversing the area, mostly through the southwest interior. A weak convergence zone is moving across Snohomish County, with minor KPAE impacts possible. Conditions are expected to be improving this morning from MVFR to VFR this afternoon. A gradual decrease back to MVFR and lower is expected later this evening as conditions are favorable for fog. Surface winds are expected to remain light, at or below 5 knots.

KSEA . The light rain and drizzle will be minimized over the terminal through the morning hours. VFR conditions to prevail through the day before decreasing overnight as fog settles in across the area. MVFR cigs likely between 07-09z. Surface winds are going to remain light, at or below 5 knots through the day generally out of the NNE.

Kristell

MARINE. Offshore seas rising this morning as another large swell train reaches the coast today. Westerly swells of 14-17 feet possible. Generally calm conditions expected otherwise through Saturday. Small Craft Advisory winds remaining in the Strait of Juan de Fuca this morning, for a small westerly push through to roughly 18z. Another round of advisories likely as the next system moves in late Saturday into Sunday.

Kristell

HYDROLOGY. From Previous Discussion . Most area rivers continue to recede at this hour with only light rainfall amounts being observed from the current passing system. At this time, only 2 rivers remain in flood stage - the Skokomish and Chehalis. The Skokomish is expected to respond to this morning's rainfall and rise slightly today before finally falling below flood stage early Saturday. The Chehalis River near Grand Mound has crested and is expected to fall below stage later this morning. The Chehalis River at Porter will take longer to fall, likely not to below flood stage until early Saturday. Refer to the latest river summary product (RVASEW) for a list of rivers currently in flood stage.

Outside of the Skokomish, impactful rises on rivers/new river flooding is not expected with the additional rainfall from the current passing system. Dry conditions Saturday with another weak front on Sunday. At this time no impacts to the rivers are expected. Conditions look to then turn gradually colder through next week, with lower snow levels as additional systems pass through.

Pullin/Kovacik

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.



www.weather.gov/seattle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 9 mi53 min 1029 hPa
CPNW1 9 mi59 min SSE 1 G 4.1 50°F
CPMW1 10 mi59 min S 6 G 7 48°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 34 mi65 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 51°F 47°F1028.6 hPa
46303 35 mi41 min NNW 1.9 G 1.9 47°F 44°F1029.1 hPa (+0.2)
46304 38 mi41 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 46°F 46°F1029.1 hPa (-0.0)
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 40 mi71 min SSW 5.1 53°F 1029 hPa45°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 47 mi31 min S 7 G 8 50°F 1029.5 hPa43°F

Wind History for Cherry Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA19 mi48 minS 810.00 miFair51°F46°F83%1029.3 hPa
Eastsound, Orcas Island Airport, WA21 mi46 minS 69.00 miFair52°F45°F77%1028.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLI

Wind History from BLI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N6NE5N4N4W3CalmCalm4CalmS12
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1 day ago3S6S3S4S4S5S3S3CalmCalmNE3N3NE6NE3NE6NE6NE6NE5NE8NE8NE7NE4E4SW4
2 days agoSE8S8SE5SE11S14S13S23
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Tide / Current Tables for Blaine, Semiahmoo Bay, Washington (2)
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Blaine
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:10 AM PST     -0.64 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 07:54 AM PST     3.29 meters High Tide
Fri -- 07:59 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:57 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:35 PM PST     1.97 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 04:42 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:35 PM PST     2.42 meters High Tide
Fri -- 07:41 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.5-0.10.61.42.12.83.23.33.12.82.52.2222.12.32.42.42.21.81.30.70.1

Tide / Current Tables for Matia Island, 0.8 mile West of, Washington Current
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Matia Island
Click for MapFlood direction 350 true
Ebb direction 206 true

Fri -- 01:41 AM PST     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:43 AM PST     2.68 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:53 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:58 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:57 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:13 AM PST     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:55 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:12 PM PST     0.45 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:43 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:47 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:43 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:34 PM PST     -2.29 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-0.70.51.82.62.72.21.2-0.1-0.6-1.1-1.3-1.2-0.9-0.500.4-0.1-0.4-0.9-1.5-1.9-2.2-2.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.