Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atka, AK

FXAK68 PAFC 051446 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 546 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

* Expect a gradual trend towards warmer and cloudier conditions as incoming storms begin to break down the ridge of surface high pressure over the Mainland.

* We continue to monitor a strong low pressure system moving in from late Thursday into Friday. Potential hazards include heavy snow, blowing snow, and, along the Gulf coast, potential for snow to mix with or change to rain.

* Multiple winter weather products have been issued in anticipation of the upcoming winter storm. Advisories are in effect from late tonight through late Friday night and/or Saturday morning for Cordova, Eastern Kenai Peninsula, Kachemak Bay, Susitna Valley, Southern Copper Rover Basin, and Thompson Pass. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for late Thursday night through Friday night for the far Western Kenai Peninsula.

Discussion:

The subtropical jet stream in the Pacific will reorient from the North Pacific to the Gulf and help steer storm systems quickly across the Gulf. The first, weaker low as moved into the Gulf with gusty easterly winds across the northern Gulf and a period of snow for Kodiak Island, with up to 2-4 inches of accumulation possible by late this morning for Kodiak City. The easterly flow across the northern Gulf will also result in snow showers across Prince William Sound through today.

By late Thursday into Friday, a much stronger storm moves in from the North Pacific. Forecast confidence has increased with the general picture and timing of this storm, but there remains uncertainty. Deterministic models continue to advertise 2 scenarios: the low center moving north over the western Kenai Peninsula, or the low center tracking along Eastern Kenai Peninsula and into Prince William Sound. Both scenarios are equally likely, though our forecast is weighted more toward the first scenario.

Even though there's uncertainty with the track of the low, there are some aspects of the forecast where we DO have moderate to high confidence. We continue to expect the heaviest snow amounts and strongest winds along Kenai Peninsula, Turnagain Arm, and Prince William Sound. The threat of heavy snow and blowing snow will be greatest in these areas. These areas will also likely see their temperatures rise to or above freezing for several hours, which could create difficult travel conditions due to rain on sub- freezing roads, or rain on snow. Forecast confidence is also fairly high for Kodiak Island; aside from some minor timing differences, the modeled low tracks diverge after the low has mostly moved beyond Kodiak Island.

Where forecast confidence is lowest is mostly along Cook Inlet and in the interior. Our forecast package is based on the first scenario, which has lower snow amounts for interior locations. If the second scenario were to play out, there could be much more snow (especially in favored downslope areas like parts of Western Kenai Peninsula, Mat Valley, and Anchorage) than currently forecast. If you are in these locations, stay tuned to the forecast as snow amounts could change. Nonetheless, in areas where snow amounts are a bit more uncertain, there will likely be gusty winds for a time as the low moves north. Thus, any accumulating snow will likely result in areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Many of the more inland Winter Weather Advisories incorporate the potential for blowing snow and reduced visibilities.

As the storm begins to move out of the area, generally expect improving conditions from Friday night into Saturday. Onshore flow and an incoming shortwave will lead to continued snow along Eastern Prince William Sound and the Talkeetna Mountains. If fact, the latest model runs hint at the overall upper-level trough stalling over Prince William Sound. If this does happen, widespread snow showers will remain likely across much of the coastal mountains as well as the Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys through Saturday. Strong cold air advection and southwesterly winds across Southern Cook Inlet and Kachemak Bay may also result in prolonged snow showers for this region. Stay tuned, as this scenario may result in additional snowfall for areas around Homer after the main storm system exits to the east.

Details remain unclear as this period of the forecast will be highly dependent on which track Thursday/Friday's low ends up taking.

-TM/KC
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