Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nikolski, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Currently, a low stratus deck is over much of the Southwest Alaska mainland. The Kuskokwim Delta region is seeing light rain due to an upper low approaching from the northwest. Weak flow is prevalent in the rest of the mainland, meaning lesser chances for precipitation. In the Bering, an area of high pressure is allowing for calm winds and low chances for precipitation in the Aleutians and the Pribilof Islands. A front pushed into the western Aleutians in the morning, bringing rain to the Shemya and Adak regions. This front will dissipate quickly near Adak by Sunday and an area of high pressure will replace it. Back to the mainland, a col will form over Bristol Bay, allowing for continued low impact weather from King Salmon to Dillingham on Sunday. The Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley, however, will see the upper high continue its passage, allowing for more chances of precipitation. These conditions in the mainland will persist through Monday, with the Kuskokwim Delta slowly drying out as the low passes it by. The Bering will be mostly calm with small chances of precipitation due to weak flow and higher pressure on Sunday.

Monday afternoon, a front from a Kamchatka low pushes into the western Aleutians, increasing wind speeds to near gale force and increasing precipitation chances. However, despite this front being stronger than the last, it will suffer the same fate as the first, quickly dissipating before it reaches the Fox Islands.
Before this happens, an upper trough will swing into the Eastern Aleutians early Tuesday morning, triggering a quick shot of precipitation that will exit by late Tuesday morning. For the mainland, Tuesday brings drier and warmer weather as the area enters into the upstream region of the upper trough behind the low.

-JAR

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

The weather pattern through the long-term period will remain relatively progressive in the upper-levels from west to east Wednesday through Saturday. A low in the southwest Gulf of Alaska continues to the southeast while it weakens and exits the Gulf to the North Pacific. Southerly flow off the Gulf keeps clouds around mainland Southcentral Alaska with most of the rain confined to the coast and Kodiak Island. Mesoscale easterly shortwaves crossing the ALCAN border into the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley will also keep shower chances going through those areas.
Most showers should be confined to the foothills and terrain.
There is uncertainty in cloud cover and whether any showers could produce lightning strikes. However, the potential for a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out, especially if daytime heating is maximized.

Farther out west, the pattern remains active with numerous systems moving eastward off of Kamchatka and into the Bering/North Pacific. A gale-force low Wednesday looks to weaken as it moves eastward through Friday. The gustiest winds look to remain across the Western Aleutians with weaker winds to the east. Most rain with this system should also remain confined to the Aleutian Chain, Bering Sea, Pribilof Islands, and southern Alaska Peninsula with higher pressure across the southwestern mainland. Another Kamchatka front moves across the Western Aleutians/Bering to the Central Aleutians/Bering Friday through Saturday bringing another round of rain southerly winds to the area.

AVIATION

PANC... The Gulf low will continue to cause waves of moisture over the airport through tomorrow. Intermittent, scattered rain showers are expected resulting in VFR to MVFR conditions.
Turnagain Arm wind is likely this afternoon with gusts to 20 kts possible before slowly decreasing this evening.