Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nikolski, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:)...

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta for a wintry mix of snow and freezing rain through noon today.
The wave of moisture will lift north of the area this afternoon allowing Southwest Alaska to see mostly dry conditions through the weekend; the one exception being possible showers along the SW coast Sunday morning.

The main weather maker in the forecast comes in the form of a strong low pressure system moving to just west of Kamchatka by late Friday night. It will send its front across the western and central Aleutians through the day Saturday with gale to storm force winds and moderate precipitation as it marches eastward. A vigorous trough rotating around the aforementioned parent low will rapidly deepen and form its owned closed center as it barrels across the Aleutian Chain near Adak and Atka early Sunday morning.
Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are likely for these communities as it moves north into the Bering Sea. The Pribilof Islands will also see a period of high winds Sunday evening, although the severity of them will be greatly dependent on how far east the storm tracks. This is followed by an even stronger low crossing the Aleutians on Monday. Along with strong winds for most of western Alaska and the Bering Sea, this system will draw up plenty of moisture and send a front of moderate to heavy snow and mixed precipitation over Southwest Alaska by Tuesday.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Monday through Thursday)...

Starting in the Gulf of Alaska, a once complex low pressure system looks to weaken and open into a trough centered over the Southern Gulf. The core of energy looks to be exiting to the east by Monday morning, leaving Southcentral Alaska in a unsettled pattern through Tuesday morning. Also on Tuesday morning, a front moving over the Western Alaska Range with some of the model guidance suggesting a low to form near Kodiak Island then tracking northeast into mainland Southcentral. Agreement seems fair at this point for a low to develop. The expected track into Southcentral may shift, with the general expectation currently being the low moving over Kenai Tuesday night. A subsequent front moving over the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday, may develop another low pressure system near Kodiak again by late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
Progression of this system is still uncertain, with some solutions intensifying the low in the northern Gulf through Thursday night.

Looking out west, several low pressure systems associated with the aforementioned frontal boundaries will enter the Bering Sea early next week. By Monday morning, the first low pressure system appears to be located over the Central Bering, with the best estimated position being just west or east of the Pribilof Islands. By Monday afternoon, the low may shift northward with some solutions bringing a slightly weakened feature into Southwest Alaska. At the same time, a new stronger low pressure system will have crossed the Aleutians near Adak. This has potential to produce another round of moderate to heavy rain for the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula in addition to further potential for strong wind gusts in excess of 75 mph. By Tuesday morning, model agreement begins to degrade significantly. Some solutions exit the low to the northern Bering by Wednesday morning, while some solutions take the core of the low center directly over Nunivak Island, which would promote potentially highly impactful weather for the Kuskokwim Delta and the Greater Southwest coast beginning as early as Tuesday morning.

Weak agreement for yet another low pressure system entering the Southwest Bering by Thursday morning.

CL/LM

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light, variable winds are expected to persist through the TAF period.