Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Unalaska, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

Key Messages:

-Cold temperatures continue across Southwest Alaska, with several days below 0F inland and wind chills of -10 to -30. Near-average temperatures for the southern AK Peninsula through the Aleutians.

-Strong northerly winds from Southwest AK through Bristol Bay into the AK Peninsula with gale and storm-force winds across the waters, increasing slightly through Monday.

-Little to no precipitation for Southwest Alaska through early next week.

-Scattered snow showers will be possible on Monday as a trough digs southward across the Pribilof Islands and then the Eastern Aleutians through Tuesday.

Southwest Alaska remains largely clear of both cloud cover and precipitation this morning. Nighttime microphysics satellite shows a mostly stationary ridge of high pressure located over the Bering Sea and a broad trough situated over the Gulf of Alaska, a pattern that has been in place for the past few days and will continue through early next week. In-between the ridge and the trough sits Southwest Alaska, bereft of cloud cover thanks to drier air filtering through the region. Temperatures range from at or below zero over the interior Kuskokwim Delta, to up into the teens along the coast, and single digits for much of the rest of Southwest. A tightened pressure gradient is maintaining gusty northerly winds across portions of the Kuskokwim Valley, with the strongest winds filtering southward through the Greater Bristol Bay region. The communities of New Stuyahok, Dillingham, and King Salmon continue to see winds gusting from 30 to as high as 45 mph this morning, and this will likely continue for the rest of today and tomorrow.

To the west, beneath the ridge over the Bering, low stratus is prevailing. A small wave of low pressure is also noted tracking southward across the Eastern Aleutians. Occasional light rain is impacting Unalaska while further north a wintry mix is falling across the Pribilof Islands. Precipitation for both locations should quickly come to an end later this morning as the wave continues southward into the North Pacific. The next trough digs across the region on Monday with scattered snow showers to spread across the Pribilof Islands during the morning hours on Monday, then southward across the Eastern Aleutians and lower Alaska Peninsula Saturday afternoon and evening. Snow should be light with little in the way of accumulations. However, the combination of gusty winds accompanying the snow may result in periods of reduced visibility, before snow winds on Tuesday.

BL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

A strong area of high pressure centered over the southern Bering Sea over the Aleutian Islands Adak and Atka and, a broad and complex low in the central Gulf of Alaska drifts east toward Southeast Alaska and weakens gradually through the week. The resulting pressure gradient drives gale to storm force winds out of gaps from the eastern Aleutians, through the Alaska Peninsula, to much of the Gulf as far east as the Copper River Delta through mid- week. These winds will be aided by continued cold advection across Alaska, with the coldest temperatures in the Copper River Basin, where they will range from 20 to 40 degrees below zero. A series of shortwave troughs aloft dropping south from the Arctic could lead to periods of enhanced gap winds and reinforce the colder temperatures. The forecast area remains dry overall. The one exception looks to be on Friday, as some moisture lifts across the western and northern Bering Sea with weak low pressure moving over top of the ridge, which could bring some light snow to portions of Southwest Alaska. By Saturday, the solution's spread on the position of the ridge diverge greatly, with some solutions keeping the ridge over the Bering, others shifting it over the northern Pacific. Southern solutions would allow for more active systems to swing into the northern Bering, depending on the ridge placement.


AVIATION

PANC...Very strong northerly winds and VFR conditions will persist through Monday.