Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Unalaska, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Currently, what is left of the surface low that has moved across Southwest AK continues to dissipate and move eastward. This has left behind short-lived isolated flurries, snow showers, and low cloud ceilings, especially east of Bethel and north of Iliamna.
Surface high pressure situated across Bristol Bay is quickly moving in behind the low, and will cause conditions to improve overnight and Saturday morning.

Looking out west to the Western Aleutians, a weak area of low pressure centered around Amchitka and Adak Station on Saturday morning will increase precipitation chances and wind speeds to some extent. Southerly winds will likely cause this push of precipitation to fall as rain as surface temperatures will be near 40F with not much colder air aloft. By Saturday night, this low makes a run towards the Pribilof Islands as its attendant front pushes through the Central and Eastern Aleutians with rainfall and elevated winds. The Pribilofs may initially stay just cold enough to allow snow to mix in before warm air advection from a stout southerly flow kicks in and transitions precipitation to rain. This will be a similar story during the day Sunday for Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta as the system moves northeastward. The only difference is that snow could hang on longer, resulting in light 1-2" accumulations before a changeover to a rain/snow mix. At the same time, the associated front moves into the AK PEN and interior Southwest and is mostly a rainmaker.
By Sunday afternoon, the GFS shows a broad, complex low situating itself across the Bering Sea and sending waves of precipitation once again to the Pribilofs. There is above average model timing and placement uncertainty with this low and any smaller waves associated with it that may affect the Aleutians.

-AM

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)...

An expansive and somewhat complex upper level low stretches across the region through the forecast period. The main low center over the Eastern Bering tracks across the Gulf of Alaska before dissipating Friday. In the West, a second low center crosses the Western Aleutians to take up station over the Central Aleutians for Friday. A number of shortwaves rotate around both centers during the forecast. A forecast blend with mostly ECMWF influence combines with the GFS to carry strengths and tracks, while the largest uncertainty remains with the minor details.

A Central Bering surface low extends a front across the Southern Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday. Snow occurs across the NOrthern Bering with Rain or rain and snow mixed over the AKPEN. A second surface low picks up the main rainfall area, spreading it across Kodiak Island into the Gulf of Alaska, diminishing Thursday. Areas of moderate rain are expected through midweek over the Western Gulf, and lingering near Kodiak Island through Friday. Over the Western Aleutians and Bering, a strong North Pacific low brings locally heavy rain, continuing over the Central Aleutians and Bering into the AKPEN and Southwest Alaska through Friday. Most of Interior Alaska will remain under quiet weather conditions.

- Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.