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PKZ771 Unalaska Bay- 435 Pm Akdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Tonight..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Wed night..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
Thu..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Thu night..W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 040122 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 522 PM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2023

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS

One shortwave moving over the PWS area has moved east, as another shortwave moves southeast across the interior, just brushing the northern portion of the forecast area where light rain showers have been noted in the Bethel area. A ridge of high pressure stretched north across the central Aleutians and eastern Bering.
Farther west, a front is pushing north across the western Aleutian Islands, bringing widespread rain, gusty winds, and waves to 20 ft.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Models continue in fairly good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern. The shortwave over the interior will continue on it's southeastward trajectory. A low pressure system moving north toward the eastern Aleutians and the low moving toward the western Bering is progged to reorient the high pressure ridge to align west-east across west-central AK by Thursday morning. Medium range models show the center of the western low roughly over the far western Aleutian islands with the other just south of Unimak Island. East of this low, strong southerly winds will usher in a deep layer of relatively warm, moist air from the eastern Aleutians eastward across the Gulf, that could persist through Friday.

AVIATION
PANC...VFR conditions will persist Tuesday and most of the day Wednesday before clouds roll in at the tail end of the TAF period as precip approaches from the south. Winds will remain light northerly.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday night)...

Using latest satellite imagery, clear skies are found over southcentral Alaska this afternoon. But looking farther south, the next weather maker can be found.

An area of low pressure will track northward towards southwest Alaska and the Aleutians. A front associated with the low will swing towards the southern coast, should reach the coast Wednesday night. Along the front will be elevated wind speeds, upwards of 25 to 40 kts for marine areas, land areas will see sustained wind speeds around 10 to 20 mph. Higher wind gusts likely.

This front will also bring precip. While rain is mostly expected, some snow is possible before the warmer air arrives. Confidence is high that coastal locations will see rain with this event.
However, there should be enough cold air in place across the Copper River Basin for at least a couple of inches of snow before the snow mixes with or changes over to rain Thursday afternoon. A similar scenario is also possible for the Susitna Valley; however, there is a higher level of uncertainty as to how much cold air will be in place at the start of the event. Currently, it looks like areas around Willow and Skwentna could see some snow before a changeover to rain.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3, TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

Predominately dry and cool conditions, with nighttime lows around freezing for the near-term across the Southwest - the first prominent bout of colder temperatures into Southwest this Fall. Elsewhere along the Aleutians, overnight temperatures in the 40s will prevail. The focus of this discussion will be on the two low pressure systems affecting the west. The first is currently moving from west to east bringing light to moderate rainfall and gusty winds (up to gale-force) over a vast swath of the western Aleutians and surrounding marine areas. This system will slow and fizzle by Wednesday morning as the low to the south of the eastern Aleutians and western AKPen continues to propagate northward.
This system will bring widespread gusty gale-force winds (as far north as Bristol Bay) and mixed precipitation to the region, spreading northward across the southwest where cold air is already in place. Light snow is forecast for interior locations, rain to coastal areas, and a rain-snow mix is forecast for the area in between beginning as early as Wednesday night as the system progresses north. There is a period where freezing rain may be noted across areas of the Lower Kuskokwim early Thursday through the afternoon. For now, while confidence in low in this occurring (3-8% chance of occurrence), have chosen to not add this into the forecast, but will have to continue to monitor as the forecast evolves.

Upper level support for this system transitions east Thursday night and early Friday, with the low quickly losing strength over the period. Should see it drop south of the AKPen as it fizzles into the weekend.

Lastly, Shishaldin is still lofting ash, as detected on satellite imagery. Areas south and west could see trace amounts of ash under the current pattern. Please see the current Special Weather Statement for further information.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

A well developed upper level longwave trough extends across the Bering into the Gulf of Alaska through Tuesday. Several model defined embedded surface low centers will transit through and around the trough on various tracks, bringing unsettled weather across the region. This pattern is expected to continue through the end of the forecast period.

Saturday opens with a low centered over the Alaska Peninsula, and is accompanied by a front spreading precipitation across much of southern mainland Alaska. Rainfall will be heaviest along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula Coast all the way over to the Copper River Delta and Canadian Border with lesser amounts, but possibly mixed rain and snow inland, and tapering off through Tuesday.

Northeasterly winds drawn from Interior Alaska through the Kuskokwim Delta will result in gusty offshore winds increasing to near gale force for Kuskokwim Bay and parts of Bristol Bay and gap winds off the Alaska Peninsula and Barren Islands for Sunday into Tuesday. Gusty winds across the Pribilofs to the Aleutians Sunday through Tuesday. A weak ridge over the Western Bering yields to a North Pacific low center moving along the Pacific side of the Western Aleutians for the end of the period.

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Dutch Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:06 AM AKDT     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:13 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:54 PM AKDT     3.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:48 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:14 PM AKDT     2.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:34 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:25 PM AKDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:51 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dutch Harbor, Alaska (expired 1988-12-31), Tide feet

Kisselen Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:53 AM AKDT     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:13 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:59 AM AKDT     5.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:02 PM AKDT     2.95 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:47 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:31 PM AKDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:35 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:52 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kisselen Bay, Beaver Inlet, Unalaska Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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