Friday, October23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
False Pass, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:03AMSunset 6:24PM Friday October 23, 2020 1:30 PM AKDT (21:30 UTC) Moonrise 3:51PMMoonset 11:30PM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near False Pass, AK
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location: 54.93, -164.47     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 231218 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 418 AM AKDT Fri Oct 23 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. The latest satellite image has a classic mature low impacting much of the southern tier of the state. The occlusion spans from Southwest AK and is bisecting the Bering. The cold front begins south of Kodiak and extends into the north Pacific. While the jet is near the AKPEN and Kodiak. A new wave is forming on the frontal boundary. The latest ASCAT pass has pinged into gale force winds over the Barren Islands and portions of the Bering Sea. The upper level ridge spans from the Brooks Range to the Copper River Basin. As of 3 AM AKDT, Talkeetna was 11 degrees cooler than the previous 24 hr observation and Gulkana was 3 degrees cooler. On VIIRS imagery and webcams auroras were detected in Eagle, Fort Yukon, Bettles and a few other interior locations. However, the front is going to put the kibosh on potential aurora viewing the next couple of nights/early mornings for Southcentral.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models remain in good synoptic agreement into early next week. Looking at precipitation type (thickness values) there are some eye catching differences with the GFS, NAM, ECMWF and Canadian. This will be the trickiest aspect of the forecast the next 72 hours.

AVIATION. PANC . Cirrus signaling an approaching front was observed at PANC overnight. As the front continues its track expect the cigs to decrease. This morning VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Cigs will drop to 5,000 feet this TAF package.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Sunday night) . A frontal system in the vicinity of Kodiak Island this morning will lift northward across the western Gulf of Alaska through tonight, making very slow progress due to the presence of a strong ridge of high pressure sitting to the north and east. While the overall storm system is now in a weakening phase, funneling of winds through Stevenson and Kennedy Entrances will lead to a small area of storm force winds from the Barren Islands to Kamishak Bay beginning this afternoon. The front will gain some momentum Saturday through Saturday night as the upper ridge flattens and shifts eastward. Winds will rapidly diminish across the northwest Gulf while gale force winds overspread the northern Gulf.

Precipitation with the frontal system will also make slow northward progress, as it moves into a very dry airmass. The latest surface observations show dewpoint depressions on the order of 10 to 15 degrees. Thus, it will take some time to saturate the airmass and for precipitation to reach the ground. The northern extent of precipitation for today will hover near the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula, with light rain becoming likely around Homer. Precipitation will attempt to overspread Southcentral tonight through Saturday with limited success. South to southeast low level flow will lead to upslope enhanced precipitation across much of Prince William Sound as well as the northern to western Susitna Valley. For the remainder of the area, if precipitation reaches the ground it will be brief and light. Warn air advection will lead to a transition to mostly rain along the coast while inland areas can expect all snow.

A new storm system will make its way up from the Pacific Saturday night through Sunday night and deepen out ahead of the Bering trough. All models currently indicate a track to Prince William Sound. This looks to be a significant precipitation producer. However, the track and depth of the low will be critical to determining precipitation distribution as well as precipitation type. With the warming which occurs prior to the arrival of this system, it appears this may be a mostly rain event, with snow confined to the mountains and interior Southcentral. Stay tuned.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Friday morning through Sunday morning) .

A frontal system is producing strong winds over the Bristol Bay region with areas of rain and snow spreading north across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay area. This front will weaken today with winds slowly weakening by this evening through Saturday morning. The precipitation will gradually decrease in coverage this afternoon as the front moves north and weakens. Some snow is possible this morning from near Bethel and areas north and west in the Kuskokwim Delta, one to two inches of snow are possible this morning before changing to rain by this afternoon. Tonight through Saturday another shortwave trough will bring another round of rain to the area with winds continuing to decrease. Periods of rain are possible Saturday night through Sunday as a weakening low pressure system moves towards Kuskokwim Bay.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Friday morning through Sunday morning) .

A frontal system across the northern Bering Sea will bring rain and a broad swath of Gale force winds today gradually weakening to small crafts by Saturday morning. A low pressure system near the central Aleutians will bring another area of Gales across the eastern Aleutians and the eastern Bering today these winds will weaken to small crafts by Friday night. The low pressure system will move north towards the Pribilof Islands on Saturday. This low will weaken with winds decreasing below small crafts by Saturday night. Otherwise periods of showers are expected across much of the region Saturday through Sunday morning.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday).

Gulf of Alaska:

There is medium confidence that a slow moving front will lead to a barrier jet across the northeastern Gulf coast on Sunday. Differences in models exist over the strength of the winds associated with this feature and its extent. For now, a NAM/EC solution is preferred with gale force winds from Prince William Sound east. After this, forecast confidence decreases with an area of low pressure from the North Pacific late Sunday afternoon. At this time, the majority of model guidance indicates broad southwesterly flow from the southern Gulf into southeast Alaska on Monday. However, small craft to gale force winds are a possibility, including continuation of the barrier jet from the day before. These intricacies will be better determined with future model runs. This low looks to move inland across southern Alaska and dissipate Monday into Tuesday.

Bering Sea:

There is high confidence that the low currently over the eastern Bering will continue to sit there and weaken through Sunday. As it weakens from a low pressure center to a trough, it will be absorbed by an area of low pressure south of the eastern Aleutians Sunday night into Monday morning. Winds should remain at small craft criteria or below during this time. Additionally, a complex low pressure system off the Kamchatka Peninsula will bring a wave of fronts over the western Aleutian waters, bringing small craft winds to the area. Expect the first front Sunday, dissipating Monday, and the second front Monday moving into the central Aleutians through Wednesday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

Models have started coming into better agreement in regards to the ridging and longwave patterns on Sunday/Monday. A high amplitude trough and associated weakening low slowly push east towards the Southwest shore on Sunday, while a ridge builds over the North Pacific. Warmer air flows in behind the ridge, increasing temperatures slightly for Southern Alaska. The GFS was the previously the biggest outlier with how far inland this warmer air goes, however, the ECMWF has started showing more agreement with the GFS, bringing warmer air into the region. The trough pushes east, flattening the ridge, before being forced south by an incoming strong wave out of the north. Model solutions are agreeing well that this arctic wave pushes southeast across the state Tuesday into Wednesday, which will bring colder air towards Southcentral along with it. Any precipitation associated with this wave will likely be snow.

A ridge sets up over Southwest/eastern Bering behind the longwave trough. This pattern may be short-lived as a low pushes out of the south towards the Central Aleutians late Wednesday night. Path is relatively consistent across the models, but strength and center location vary greatly.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale 120 132 136 137 138 411 412 150 160 170 172 174 177 178 181 185 351 352. Storm 130 131.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . SEB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . RLC MARINE/LONG TERM . CK/KM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAKF

Wind History from AKF (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Mordvinof, Unimak Island, Alaska
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Cape Mordvinof
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Fri -- 12:16 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:24 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 06:56 AM AKDT     -0.95 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:44 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 02:30 PM AKDT     7.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:50 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:38 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:58 PM AKDT     3.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.25.74.73.41.80.4-0.6-0.9-0.50.52.13.85.46.67.27.26.55.44.33.53.23.54.35.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Sarichef, Unimak Island, Alaska
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Cape Sarichef
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Fri -- 12:20 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:24 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 05:41 AM AKDT     -0.89 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:46 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:40 PM AKDT     5.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:50 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:43 PM AKDT     3.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:41 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:55 PM AKDT     4.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.63.82.61.20-0.7-0.9-0.40.41.734.25.15.75.75.34.53.73.133.33.74.24.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.