Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
False Pass, AK

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 9:57AMSunset 3:46PM Monday December 9, 2019 1:57 AM AKST (10:57 UTC) Moonrise 3:40PMMoonset 6:03AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near False Pass, AK
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location: 54.93, -164.47     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 090203 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 503 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A brief clearing over Southern Alaska from this morning is quickly giving way to the next rapidly moving low out of the North Pacific. Satellite shows this system approaching Kodiak Island with a front extending to around 25N. This pattern is strengthening the surface low which will move into the eastern Bering Sea early tomorrow morning. This will also bring the strong front associated with this low through the Gulf and into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska tomorrow.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models remain in relatively good synoptic agreement the next few days as the differences are of the type where they are not disrupting the forecast very much. What is the biggest question mark is the way the winds will move around the Anchorage area. This is due to the complexities of the terrain and therefore the high-resolution models are preferred.

AVIATION. PANC . Winds will be the main concern around the terminal tonight. Specifically the low level wind shear. Winds should increase from the north at the surface, but winds aloft will increase from the southeast this evening creating some wind shear. These southeast winds aloft will increase more after midnight with northerly winds persisting at the surface therefore increasing the wind shear. Late Monday afternoon the strong southeast winds will move over the airport at the surface.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tonight through Tuesday) .

High Wind Warnings will go into effect along Turnagain Arm, higher elevations of the Anchorage Hillside, and through Portage Valley starting at midnight tonight and continuing until 9pm Monday evening. A strong east-west oriented front will move north across the Gulf tonight. As it approaches the north Gulf Coast, southeast winds will increase ahead of the front from Prince William Sound through Portage Valley, Turnagain Arm, and the Anchorage Hillside. For the Anchorage Bowl, 10 to 20 mph winds will remain out of the north or northeast, likely coming into town as remnants from a gusty Matanuska Valley wind. That Mat wind will impact Palmer and Wasilla with gusts up to 45 mph from around midnight tonight through the day Monday.

Precipitation-wise, we have drastically reduced expected rainfall totals across the Anchorage Bowl and the Mat-Su Valleys over the next 24 hours or so. The aforementioned southeast winds moving down the Chugach mountains should dry out as they descend, which will evaporate most of the rainfall. Portage and Whittier will be the wettest communities from this rainfall event, with around 6 inches of rain possible from this evening through Monday evening. For Seward, 2 to 4 inches are possible. These reduced amounts are primarily because the winds with the front will have a significant easterly component to their direction. Thus, instead of moving up the valley, the winds will be directed somewhat across the valley, which will reduce rainfall totals in town. However, higher precipitation amounts will be possible towards Exit Glacier on the eastward facing mountain slopes.

The front will move inland Monday evening. After frontal passage, the winds will diminish dramatically, which should coincide with the end of the High Wind Warnings Monday evening. As the front crosses the area, increased lift will give the Anchorage Bowl its best chance of rain from this event, though amounts should remain under a quarter of an inch. Monday evening will also be the Anchorage Bowl's best chance of getting the Turnagain Arm wind into town, which will spike temperatures well into the 40s. Behind the front on Tuesday, the winds will be significantly diminished, but the Turnagain Arm wind will continue through the day, but should not affect the Anchorage Bowl. A return to northerly winds for Anchorage and the Mat-Su will bring high temperatures down into the mid to upper 30s on Tuesday. A front associated with another low will move into the southern Gulf Tuesday evening. This will be the next chance of precip for much of the area through midweek.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday evening) .

A strong low will approach the Alaska Peninsula this evening. Easterly winds with gusts exceeding 60 mph are likely in terrain gaps of the Aleutian Range near Iliamna by early Monday morning. A brief period of snow is possible over the Bristol Bay area over the same time period, however temperatures will quickly rise above freezing as the warm front lifts northward, changing precipitation to rain. Snow and blowing snow are expected across the Kuskokwim Delta Monday morning as well (see Winter Weather Advisory for further details). As the associated low departs to the northwest, strong southerly flow on its east side will lead to well above average temperatures in the low 40s over much of Southwest Alaska by Monday afternoon. After a brief break between systems on Tuesday, another front will track near the Alaska Peninsula by Wednesday with gusty easterly winds redeveloping near the Aleutian Range though precipitation looks to be minimal at this time.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday evening) .

A low will track northward over Bristol Bay through Monday morning, bringing rain and gusty northerly winds to the eastern Aleutians. Scattered rain or snow showers will continue across the entire Chain through Wednesday in a broad northwesterly flow.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

. Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters .

A pair of low pressure systems will affect the region. The first low moves from the Northern Bering towards the Kamchatka Peninsula on Wednesday as it retrogrades (moves west), with sustained gales likely north of 60N and west of 175W. Further east, a north Pacific low moving towards the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) will also bring sustained gales to the Bristol Bay and coastal waters of the AKPEN. The winds will then subside for both locations on Thursday and Friday. Seas look to generally remain at or below 15 feet through the period.

. Gulf of Alaska .

A front will move from south to north across the region on Wednesday, with sustained gales preceding it. Given a long fetch length, seas are expected to build into the 20 to 25 feet range ahead of this feature. The winds will subside for Thursday and Friday, but, the waves will take more time. We expect seas to remain near 20 feet for the southern and eastern Gulf on Thursday . before decreasing more on Friday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

Models continue to struggle with the specifics of the long term forecast, but some general signals can still be gleaned in the noise. Synoptically, a progressive pattern will persist over the Bering and Alaska. A vertically stacked low in the northern Bering Sea Wednesday will continue steering modified Arctic air over the Aleutians and Bering. The low will continue to gradually weaken and shift towards Siberia, but in the meantime expect scattered showers over much of the Bering/Aleutians through Thursday. Meanwhile, a low that is currently roughly 400 miles southwest of Shemya will quickly traverse the North Pacific over the next few days. As this low tracks northeast of 50N 150W it will push a warm occluded front towards the North Gulf Coast, likely in the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe. This should trigger a healthy round of precipitation along the North Gulf Coast and Alaska/Aleutian Range. South/southeast facing slopes should get the heaviest precipitation, while areas in the lee (e.g., Anchorage Bowl, western Kenai Peninsula, Bristol Bay) will be more of a challenge with shadowing. While it's early to get into specifics with respect to precipitation type, this looks like a fairly warm system . the mountains should get snow but in lower lying areas precipitation type will be a challenge. Friday into the weekend, models indicate a strong low or series of lows traversing the Aleutians, bringing a round of strong southerly winds and precipitation.

In short, temperatures will largely be near or above average with a southerly component to the flow over southern Alaska for much of the Wednesday through Sunday timeframe. In addition, precipitation will mostly be focused along the North Gulf Coast.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NPW 101 125. WSW 155. MARINE . Storms 119 120 130-132 138 160 180 351 352. Gales 125 129 139-141 150 155 165 179 181 412. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . JW SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AP MARINE/LONG TERM . PD/MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAKF

Wind History from AKF (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Mordvinof, Unimak Island, Alaska
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Cape Mordvinof
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Mon -- 06:58 AM AKST     5.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:21 AM AKST     4.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:10 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 02:45 PM AKST     6.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:39 PM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:30 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:53 PM AKST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.23.13.94.555.25.24.34.14.34.85.466.56.76.45.84.83.62.41.40.70.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Sarichef, Unimak Island, Alaska
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Cape Sarichef
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Mon -- 06:08 AM AKST     4.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 AM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:06 AM AKST     3.83 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:09 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:55 PM AKST     5.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:42 PM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:34 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:38 PM AKST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.53.13.63.94.14.23.83.944.24.64.95.25.35.14.63.82.81.810.60.50.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.