Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Metlakatla, AK

AVIATION
Widespread VFR conditions continue through the period, with clear skies across the panhandle. Lingering light offshore winds will be switching onshore as sea breezes increase to around 10 to 15 kts throughout the morning. Expecting a switch back to offshore through the evening, with most places becoming light. Not expecting much fog development tonight with how dry the panhandle currently is, but may see marine layer push into Yakutat and Sitka overnight, which could bring CIGs and VIS down to LIFR conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 506 AM AKDT Fri Aug 14 2026...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- The release from Suicide Basin has ended. Mendenhall Lake and River are below flood stage.

- Very warm temperatures to end the work week with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

- The warm and dry conditions will bring elevated threat for fire starts across much of SE AK. A few small fires have been observed already over the past week.

SHORT TERM...Warm temperatures and a dry weather pattern is expected to continue into the weekend due to the high pressure still sitting in the Gulf. Generally expecting similar conditions as Thursday across the panhandle, with clear skies and daytime highs in the mid to high 70s up into the low 80s across the panhandle. Some areas may still see temperatures hitting the mid 80s, however these will largely be further inland and more isolated locations. Still expecting areas along the waters to heat up to the mid to high 70s before sea breezes develop in the afternoon and bring cooler marine air inland. Saturday however is expected to have slightly cooler daytime highs with the high being pushed eastward again with an approaching low in the western Gulf. This will begin to bring more onshore flow from the Gulf, a change from yesterday and today having hotter and drier air from interior Canada, keeping temperatures more in the low to high 70s across the area. Some more inland parts of the far northeastern and southern panhandle may still see temperatures up to around 80, however a change to a more gradual cooling trend is expected throughout the weekend.

Slight chance for isolated thunderstorms remains for Hyder and the Misty Fjords area Friday afternoon, however it is still looking less than ideal in terms of moisture presence for these storms to actually develop into the southern panhandle. Most of these thunderstorms, just as yesterday, may stay just to the E/NE on the other side of the coastal range in Canada, and not pushing into our area. A similar setup is expected again Saturday afternoon/evening, though confidence is lower for any storm cells moving past Hyder and into more of the Ketchikan area compared to Friday.

LONG TERM
/Sunday through Wednesday/
The upper level ridge is expected to begin to dissipate Sunday as a weak trough builds over the gulf, shifting the region toward zonal flow that will bring cooler, more saturated air onshore. Temperatures are expected to follow a cooling trend, due to 850mb level temps dropping, and leading to daily highs in the mid 60s by next week, though inland and southern areas may remain warmer in the low 70s due to the residual influence of a weakening surface ridge. As surface high pressure also weakens, a series of weak frontal bands originating from a surface trough dropping into the gulf from the Alaska Peninsula will move across the panhandle, resulting in widespread overcast skies and moisture advection in the low to mid levels. The northeast gulf coast, particularly near Yakutat, will be the primary focus for precipitation, with the most significant activity expected between Monday and Tuesday. While deterministic models show some spread still, the highest forecaster confidence results in 24 hour rainfall accumulations of 0.75” to 1.25” with this disturbance. The remainder of the week is expected to stay showery with lighter, intermittent rain and cooler temperatures across the panhandle, offering relief from the recent dry spell.

AVIATION...Quiet aviation weather this morning with VFR conditions and light winds mostly. Like yesterday some ground fog has developed around Yakutat and Klawock, but it is not as thick as yesterday. VFR conditions are expected to continue for the panhandle into tonight with mostly light winds continuing. Sea breezes will again develop in the afternoon and will likely top out at 15 kt in some areas.

MARINE...
Gulf Waters: High pressure persists over the eastern gulf into the weekend. Highest winds are 15 kt NW winds for the near shore waters off Prince of Wales and Baranof Islands. Seas are also low with 5 ft or less across the entire area. Things start to change on Sunday as a new front starts to move in from the W bringing increased winds and seas to the central and Northern gulf. S to SE winds will be increasing to 25 to 30 kt Sunday that will last into Sunday night, and seas likewise will be increasing to 8 to 10 ft by Sunday night.

Inside Channels: Very quiet across the inner channels this morning with 10 kt or less of wind (mainly out of the N and W) and seas of 2 ft or less. This will largely remain unchanged into the weekend except for afternoon and evening sea breezes. Some of these sea breezes could becoming as strong as 20 kt at times. The general N winds are expected to switch to a more Southerly direction over the weekend, but are expected to remain mostly light.

FIRE WEATHER...High pressure out the the Gulf continues to bring mostly dry and warm weather across the panhandle. Warm temperatures with daytime highs reaching the 70s to mid 80s and dry weather are expected to continue through the end of the week and into the weekend. More inland areas are expected to continue reaching relative humidities down to the 30s to 40s during the daytime hours with rebounding during the overnight hours into the 80s to 90s. With the continued lack of rain, fine fuels such as grasses will continue to dry.

Models continue to suggest the potential for isolated thunderstorms along the Panhandle border with Canada as well as the SE panhandle on Friday and Saturday during the afternoon/evening. However, due to the lack of low level moisture each day the chance of thunderstorms is still only around 15% or less.

Overall, expecting the dry and warm trend to continue through the end of the week with fire weather conditions looking to last into the weekend as well, however the main variable to watch for will be daytime winds. As of now, expecting the worst fire weather conditions to be Friday afternoon as daytime highs during the weekend look to gradually decrease, however given the persistent pattern can't rule out the temperatures extending further into the weekend. The dry conditions are looking to last through the weekend, with the next chance of rain not being until Monday.

HYDROLOGY...The release flood from Suicide Basin has ended. The Mendenhall River crested around 2:15pm Thursday afternoon with a height of 14.7 ft. Since then Mendenhall River and Lake has dropped in level rather quickly. It fell below flood stage as of 9 pm Thursday evening and continues to fall this morning. In Suicide Basin, the laser gage and webcams show that most of the water has drained out of the lake there. The water in the Mendenhall river basin will continue to drain out through today.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318-319-321- 325-328-330>332.
MARINE...None.