Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Metlakatla, AK

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Periods of moderate to heavy rain expected for Sunday and Monday as a stronger system pushes across the entire panhandle.

- Slow drying trend from N to S next week; with widespread warm weather and drier conditions likely by late in the week and over the weekend.

SHORT TERM
/Saturday Through Monday/
Rain continues to be the big story through Monday across SE AK as an upper level shortwave trough races through. As of Saturday afternoon a front pushing inland has led to widespread rain overrunning most of the northern and central panhandle, as well as the southern outer Gulf coast. Rainfall rates will diminish through the remainder of Saturday, before increasing once more Saturday night across the northern half of the panhandle as a plume of moisture moves through. As the system moves off to the E on Sunday, expect widespread rainfall to spread across the rest of the area. Chances of rain continue through the remainder of the short term, although by Monday the best chances will be for the southern half of the panhandle and for more interior areas (like Juneau).
Increased QPF totals in the forecast, but still expect that the NBM generally has the right trends, albeit perhaps slightly under doing precip. Anticipate 2-4 inches for Yakutat, 1-2 inches for areas north of Sumner Strait, and 0.5 to 1.5 inches for the southern panhandle through Sunday night. On Monday, another 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain are expected, mostly for the Icy Strait Corridor southward.

LONG TERM
/Tuesday through Saturday/
An area of high pressure will develop in the Gulf of Alaska, and this will lead to onshore flow and a general warming and drying trend for Southeast Alaska. Shower chances will stick around as a weak disturbance brings showers in from the West.

A low pressure system in the Western Gulf of Alaska will lead to the high pressure to strengthen in the Central Gulf by Thursday. On the east side of the ridge, winds of 20-25 kts are expected on the southwest side of Prince of Wales island. With generally warm and dry conditions, seabreezes with daytime heating are expected beginning Thursday. As the ridge brings sinking air next Friday and Saturday, high temperatures will warm into the low-to-mid 70s across the area.

AVIATION
/Through 06z Sunday/
The dry slot of the system has moved into the area this evening which has mostly shut off the rain for a time and allow conditions to improve to MVFR or better, but some showers are occasionally dropping ceilings and vis down to IFR or lower for brief periods of time. However, the next front (which is stronger then today's front) will be moving into the northern half of the panhandle late tonight. heavier rain with MVFR or lower vis and ceilings is expected to start up along the NE gulf coast as early as around midnight and spread inland from there from Frederick Sound northward. Yakutat will bare the brunt of the rainfall with vis and ceilings possibly dropping to IFR early Sunday morning and continuing into the day before it moves E toward Sunday evening. Low level wind shear (mainly of the speed variety with 2000 ft AGL winds reaching 40 kt out of the SE) and turbulence will likely be an issue along the NE gulf coast Sunday morning as well. Meanwhile the southern panhandle will stay mostly VFR through Sunday before the front moves into that area by Sunday evening with MVFR ceilings possible as the rainfall moves in.

MARINE...
Outside (Eastern Gulf): For the weekend, gale force winds along the northern coast, fresh seas as high as 20 ft, and heavy rain are the main threats.

Further detail:

Winds will ebb a bit Saturday afternoon in the wake of a front.
Don't let this lull you into a false sense of security. Winds will ramp up quickly Saturday night, with gale force winds expected to start sometime near 12 AM to 6 AM Sunday morning, with the heaviest winds west of the Fairweather Grounds to Cape St.
Elias. There could be localized areas of storm force conditions for a brief period of time just south of Cape Suckling. Wave guidance has struggled with significant wave heights Sunday; keeping things simple, expect short period fresh seas of at least 17 ft to as high as 20 ft near Cape St. Elias. Again, the heaviest conditions will be near Cape St. Elias and east toward the Fairweather Grounds. For folks south of Cross Sound, especially along the coast of PoW, expect winds of fresh to strong breezes and seas of 9 to 12 ft. Winds and seas begin to relax Monday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds slowly ramp up Saturday, reaching peak intensity Sunday.

Further detail: For the inside waters, winds have become southerly as a gale force low moves into the gulf. For this surface pressure regime, the main problem areas through the remainder of Saturday look to be Chatham Strait, Peril Strait, and Icy Strait, with the potential to see winds of at least moderate breezes by Saturday afternoon. For the remainder of the region, there will likely be much less wind until Sunday as the low begins to jump ashore, bringing widespread winds of moderate to fresh breezes across the inside. Winds will begin to relax across the inner channels on Monday.

A note on Glacier Bay for Sunday: Mariners navigating the upper arms of Glacier Bay Sunday should be aware of an occluding front moving over the region. Anticipate southeasterlies to build Sunday before this front moves over, which could bring pretty intense southerly winds to inlets exposed to the south like Reid Inlet.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-663-664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>643-661-662.