Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kasaan, AK

SHORT TERM
/ Through Thursday morning / A broad area of low pressure persists west of Haida Gwaii and advects easterly bands of showers into the central and southern panhandle through Wednesday. This will continue into Thursday, mainly impacting the southern panhandle at that point. These showers will have low accumulation totals with less than 0.3 inches for the Icy Strait corridor and Juneau today, and split between today and tomorrow for the southern panhandle. Yakutat area should stay dry with the easterly flow aloft, though this may also bring wildfire smoke to areas of the northern panhandle. Winds will weaken tonight as the pressure gradient loosens, becoming more northwesterly and eventually westerly as a ridge building over the western gulf continues to move closer and push out the stalling low.
Temperatures will continue to gradually warm through the week with highs already in the upper 60s and lows in the lower 50s for the northern panhandle. Some parts of these areas might even see temperatures breach 70 before the upcoming high temperatures predicted for the weekend.

LONG TERM
/Thursday through Monday/... Some easterly rain showers will continue across the panhandle into Thursday evening, associated with both a low in the Gulf to the west of Haida Gwaii and a low over British Columbia. These showers will begin to decrease into Thursday night as a surface ridge approaches the panhandle from the west, pushing the weakening low to the southeast. This ridge, accompanied by an upper level ridge building over the Gulf on Friday, will help to bring drier weather, clearer skies, and some higher temperatures into this weekend. Models showing 850mb temperatures of between 10 and 12 degrees C moving into the area alongside this ridge, which will bring us some warm air advection that will also aid in bringing temperatures up. This warm air advection alongside the surface ridging will bring some areas of the panhandle to over 70 degrees for their highs this weekend, with the highest temperatures looking to be Saturday afternoon and in the southern panhandle.
There are some higher (14-15 degrees C) 850mb temperatures moving along the border with British Columbia, though this will have little impact on the panhandle outside of Dyea, which is expected to see highs above 80 for the weekend. Temperatures will also be higher due to the lack of cloud cover during Friday and the weekend, resulting in likely even higher temperatures than the models are showing due to the long sunlight hours and surface heating. Temperatures will then begin to decrease again Sunday into Monday through the majority of the panhandle, with only Hyder looking like it will stay warmer for longer.

The higher temperatures in the Yukon Territory and British Columbia alongside their potential for some convective showers later in the week may result in some risk for wildfires, which may bring some haze in to Haines and Skagway. As of now we have put haze in for the majority of the midrange forecast for just Haines and Skagway in anticipation of this.

Winds look to stay on the lighter side over the region for the rest of the week into the weekend. However, the pressure gradient in the northern panhandle may tighten as the surface ridge begins to move in while a low remains over Canada to the northeast, which may bring some elevated winds to Lynn Canal on Thursday. Friday into Saturday morning there will be some elevated winds along the southern outer coast and coming out of Chatham Strait and Clarence Strait as the ridge continues to push east while a low remains over British Columbia, bringing some 15 to 25 kt winds as the gradient tightens. These winds are not expected to last however as the ridge continues to push eastward Saturday into Sunday, with winds decreasing to between 10 and 15 kt off the coast Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION
Aviation concerns over the next day or two will mainly be dealing with some periods of lower clouds and showers from various easterly moving rain bands tracking through the region.

There are two such bands of rain in the panhandle this morning: one over the Icy Strait area, bringing light rain, with VFR vis and ceilings. The second is over the far southern panhandle and is bringing some rain and MVFR ceilings down to 1000 ft at times.

Looking ahead, these bands of rain should move out this morning.
However, another short wave is expected across the Juneau and Icy Strait area tonight bringing more bands of rain and lowered flying conditions, followed by another short wave over the southern panhandle late Wednesday night into Thursday. Expect lower ceilings down to MVFR (occasional IFR) and some reduction in visibility down to around 5 miles from rain as these features move though the area.
Meanwhile out at Yakutat, VFR conditions will the rule of the day as the clouds and rain are expected to stay to their east.

MARINE
Outside Waters: NE gentle to moderate breezes (7 to 16 kts)
continue to decrease through the day and become variable before turning W and increasing to moderate to fresh breezes (11 to 21 kts) through tomorrow with the ridge in the gulf. Dixon entrance may continue to see elevated winds through the day as the persisting low in the southern gulf continues to spin up bands of clouds and precipitation for the panhandle. Wave heights gradually decrease from nearly 8 ft to less than 5 ft as an 8 second SW swell tries to fight the initial NE winds.

Inside Waters: Generally light and somewhat variable winds with calm waters for inner channels through Wednesday. Northerly outflow turning onshore and increasing slightly by the end of Thursday. Local sea breezes are expected for the northern panhandle in the afternoon. Upper level easterly flow keeps bands of clouds and scattered showers in the forecast for the majority of the panhandle Wednesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.