Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kasaan, AK

SHORT TERM
/through Thursday night/...
Mostly sunny skies continue across the northern panhandle, with upper level easterly flow pushing high clouds with isolated, light showers into the central and southern panhandle through the afternoon. A very low marine layer has developed along the coast of Baranof Island and pushed into Sitka Sound, though it is now pulling out of the sound as it shifts south towards Cape Decision.
Areas along the southern outer coast may see ceilings and visibility drop through the next few hours, but northwesterly winds along the coast from ridging in the gulf should keep the marine layer from sticking around in one place for too long. A marine layer is also pushing along the northern gulf coast and into Yakutat, which may persist overnight. Otherwise, skies should remain clear overnight across the rest of the panhandle. Light winds in the southern panhandle overnight may allow for patchy fog development in the early morning hours.

Heading into Wednesday, a very weak low approaching from the southwest will bring the chance for light rain to the southern and central panhandle in the afternoon and evening. Shower potential will linger into Thursday morning, though skies are expected to clear out again through the day. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with the increased cloud cover, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sea breezes will most likely develop through midday and continue into the afternoon for locations that see enough clearing and daytime warming.

LONG TERM
Simply put, Friday, anticipate a nice day with sea breezes for the region. Friday night we start to see a tale of two regimes: wet for areas north and west of Frederick Sound and potential for warm and dry south of Frederick Sound.

Touching on rain first, a gale force system will lift into the western Gulf late Friday, bringing southeasterly sustained winds of near-gale force to strong breezes to most of the coast into Saturday. Seas will also increase, likely reaching near 14 ft along the northern coast. Rain will also accompany this system, with the focus on heaviest rain near Prince William Sound; however, expect light to moderate rain for areas north and west of Frederick Sound, especially west of Cape Fairweather. For all communities, we anticipate 24 hour rain total to remain below 3 inches.

Now an interesting turn of events is taking place in the southern Panhandle by Sunday. As guidance continues to shift the rain a bit west, this means we will see drier conditions for Prince of Wales and Ketchikan. One consequence of this will be potential loss of cloud over and see temperatures in the upper 70s to possible low 80s before rain and cooler temperatures arrive Monday. As of Tuesday afternoon, our published forecast is trending warmer and drier for this weekend in the south. Stay tuned.

AVIATION
We continue to see most land areas seeing VFR through late afternoon into the evening, with areas near the water (like Sitka and Yakutat) seeing marine layer fog working in and out at times bringing MVFR to VFR flight conditions down to IFR quickly.
The model soundings continue to indicate that marine layer along the coast will be noted overnight, with radiational fog development over the land areas over the southern 1/3rd of the Alaska Panhandle expected 12Z-16Z (early morning). For tomorrow, probably similar conditions expected with lingering marine layer for locations near the water potentially keeping visibilities and ceilings restricted to IFR at times, but most locations should see VFR tomorrow otherwise.

MARINE

Inner Channels: Winds are expected to peak tonight in Lynn Canal, 20-25 kts for the Taiya Inlet, before diminishing overnight.
Western Icy Strait also looks to see increased winds tonight as well with speeds 15-20 kts. Through the day tomorrow, winds across the panhandle look to be overall lower than today because of less diurnal heating due to more cloudcover. Stronger sea breezes are expected to return on Thursday with sky cover diminishing (warm land areas near colder water which drives the sea breeze circulations).

Outer waters: Predominantly NW winds in the open Gulf are being funneled along the near shore terrain, creating pockets of increased wind around prodominant capes along the coast.
Sustained winds are expected to be around 20-25 kts, especially around Cape Spencer. Winds on Wednesday across the Gulf are expected to be lighter, and this terrain based forcing is not as likely to occur. However, increased winds are expected on Thursday, especially north of Cape Spencer, due to increasing pressure gradient as a low pressure system moves in from the west. This low pressure system is expected to move into the gulf Friday night with near gale force winds north of Cape Spencer.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644.