Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kasaan, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 082327 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 327 PM AKDT Sat Aug 8 2020

SHORT TERM. As a vigorous storm pulls out of the SW gulf, a responding ridge has popped up across Southeast Alaska ensuring breezy conditions across the Panhandle today. Showers, too, have been heavy at times across the region as a vorticity max rides northeastward.

The track as noted previously has driven the low along a farther south path. And therefore, the threat of high winds to Yakutat has ended. We will cancel the high wind watch and replace it with strong winds for Monday morning. Storm force winds, though curtailed in duration with the southeast barrier jet near Cape Fairweather, will still appear in the open gulf resulting from the sting jet to the low's south. Windy conditions for the northern Panhandle look good. Due to parallel gradient, we did diminish winds in Lynn Canal late tonight into Sunday morning to lend a small break. Also, we turned wind directions in Icy Strait from southeast to westerly from late Sunday afternoon into much of Sunday night. In addition we expanded periods for strong winds into Monday morning for Skagway and Haines as well.

Integrated vapor transport (IVT) of 500 to 700 kg/m/s and high probabilities of exceeding 10-year return intervals for several locations in the north have prompted coordination with RFC to raise many streams to bankfull conditions Sunday night for the northern Panhandle. Basically we have 2 to 4 inches of rainfall from Yakutat to Juneau and down to Sitka with lighter amounts of 1 to 2 inches from Upper Lynn Canal to Hoonah. CIRA layered PW indicates a deep swath of moisture over the SW gulf directed by this system as well. Impressive heavy rain rates of 0.30/hour are indicated on MIRS satellite rain rate images. Once the system reaches our terrain, embedded showers could produce this much or more at times.

Moving forward, strong onshore flow and continued bands of vorticity continues to support showers across the Panhandle Monday, even as southerly winds slowly diminish. The Marine Weather Statement will expire at 4PM as its outlook function has served well. The Special Weather Statement was given more details.

LONG TERM. /Mon through Sat as of 10 pm Fri/Latest model guidance is giving indications that next week may not be as interesting as thought compared to previous long range forecasts. As we begin the work week Monday, the strong storm system impacting the region will be winding down. Gale force winds will still be occurring in some parts of the Gulf and Northern Lynn Canal at the onset of the forecast period, with a smattering of SCA winds through the inner channels and coastal areas. Currently expecting the pressure gradient to loosen up over the course of the day which will decrease the wind threat significantly by Monday night. Rain showers behind the main system will still be moving through the panhandle, however rainfall rates and overall coverage will be greatly reduced from the previous 24 hours.

Ridging begins to build in over the region Monday night. While onshore flow will continue to keep some PoP chances for the panhandle, these numbers will be greatly reduced. The forecast begins to differ quite a bit at this point from previous iterations. Tuesday night, surface flow begins to swing to the NW and remains as such through Thursday. Such a situation could potentially lead to multiple consecutive dry days for some locations. However, given the subtle discrepancies within the current model suite, and the fact that this change is fairly new, have retained PoPs in the 20s and 30s and will certainly re- evaluate when creating tomorrow's forecast package. Regardless of anything, will continue to forecast for mostly cloudy conditions through the week, however if it does look like this pattern will hold up for future forecasts, may be able to slash some of the dreariness from the sky forecast.

Vast discrepancies between models exist with a potential late week storm system. While we will not speculate on specific potential impacts quite yet, the timing and track is worthy of note. The wide canyon between the GFS and ECMWF solutions is of particular interest. GFS will have this system bring a front through the southern and central panhandle Friday into Friday night. The EC on the other hand delays this system to nearly the end of the forecast period Saturday night and further, mostly passing south of the region. Will definitely require further guidance before attempting to nail down what, if anything, this system will do.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Strong Wind from late tonight through Sunday morning for AKZ024. Strong Wind from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for AKZ020-025. Strong Wind from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for AKZ022. Strong Wind from late tonight through late Sunday night for AKZ023. Strong Wind from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for AKZ019. Strong Wind from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for AKZ018. Strong Wind Sunday morning for AKZ017. MARINE . Storm Warning for PKZ051. Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-041>043-052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-032>036-053.



JWA/JDR

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GIXA2	26 mi	31 min	ESE 14 G 21	57°F			1018.4 hPa	53°F
KEXA2	33 mi	31 min	E 15 G 24	56°F			1021.1 hPa	49°F
SLXA2	35 mi	30 min	ESE 13 G 21	57°F			1018.7 hPa	52°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK	36 mi	55 min	SE 14 G 21	57°F	59°F		1022.1 hPa
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK	60 mi	33 min	SE 15 G 22	57°F			1018.3 hPa	57°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy	61 mi	43 min	SE 16 G 19	56°F	56°F	5 ft	1019.7 hPa (-3.3)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAHY

Wind History from AHY (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Divide Head, Cholmondeley Sound, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Saltery Cove, Skowl Arm, Kasaan Bay, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for (6,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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