Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kasaan, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 041541 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 641 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

SHORT TERM. A passing front pressing northward across the Panhandle likely dropped around an inch of new snow from Prince of Wales Island northward into Upper Lynn Canal overnight as a broad band of snow showers followed. A southerly push behind the front has resulted in a few degrees of warming, so for many locations the fresh white coating had a short lifespan as snow began to mix with or transition to rain or even stopped altogether. As the front exits into the Canadian Yukon, we expect dry conditions and weak offshore flow to yield some sun today, especially during the late morning. As we near the vernal equinox, any solar insolation will feel distinctly warm, and forecast highs today in the low 40s for much of the north may be too conservative as it could go higher. Today will be a lovely day for a walk. We should note that with significant melting of snow across the north today, an icy sheen could quickly form by late evening, so use caution on any nighttime walks as it will be slick in spots. We cooled nighttime lows, as much as we warmed afternoon highs. Finally, it could become breezy in Downtown Juneau late this afternoon and early this evening ahead of a new front approaching from the south. Mountain wave parameters suggest such a signature.

Farther south, a different story emerges. A deepening low rushes north along the coast of Haida Gwaii through tonight. By the time it approaches Dixon Entrance, gale force southeasterlies enter the southeast gulf waters by late tonight. Related to the low's approach, we have added gusty winds to around 45 mph from Wrangell south to Ketchikan and west to Prince of Wales Island. Ahead of this low, a front briefly arrives with some unstable air. As steering flow winds increase against the terrain of the southern Panhandle, we added a slight threat for thunderstorms on Prince of Wales, Annette, and Revillagigedo Islands. Rain develops across the south today ahead of this system. Sure, there might be a chance of snow at precipitation onset, but thicknesses largely point to a rain event with temperatures reaching the middle 40s north to Petersburg.

Precipitation changes to showers tonight as the low occludes. Although the low now sports solid gale force winds tonight, is already showing signs of weakening as it churns up the coast on Saturday. We did commit to one change that significantly affected the forecast leading into Saturday: we re-drew a more offshore track instead of one making landfall around Baranof Island. The actual track remains uncertain, but the cluster of solutions now keeping it out to sea was difficult to ignore. In response to this, we also lowered pop on Saturday for much of the Inner Channels, especially the north. Given offshore flow, precipitation--should it fall across the north tonight--will likely come in the form of snow due to column cooling with saturation.

The low's slow progress northwestward should keep chances of precipitation across the Panhandle even into Saturday night. But a new system developing to the south should hold stationary, promising a significant dry period early next week. For more details read on below.

Forecast confidence is moderate today, which is good for this type of weather pattern. But any winter impacts should be low.

LONG TERM. /Saturday through Thursday night/ . A large broad low persists over the Gulf of Alaska. The various model solutions on the operation solutions have a similar general idea, including the idea of multiple centers and troughs/fronts rotating about it, their positioning and strengths varying slightly. Settling on fine details will have to wait for future model runs.

On Saturday one of the front/trough will lift north along or into the southern half of the panhandle then pull back to the north central gulf. Another bit of energy dives south, to near 50N Saturday morning and this will pull the main low to the southeast by Sunday night. A ridge that had been over the far western gulf, that will be moved across the gulf and by a feature on the south side of the large scale complex low pressure area anchored of the Bering Sea. An incoming system will move from the north Pacific and past Kodiak Island to PWS by early Tuesday, and then into the panhandle Tuesday. A break in the precipitation is expected from Sunday to Monday, with cloud cover shifting to a partly to mostly cloudy pattern. If there are substantial breaks in clouds, some morning fog may hamper early morning aviation, and or slow down morning driving.

Temperatures do not appear to warm or cool substantially during the period and will hang close enough to freezing to make snow a consideration in at least some portion of the forecast area with each passing disturbance.

A blend of GFS and ECMWF were used for the early part of the long term, with NBM and WPC for the latter part. Overall confidence is above average through the period.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ026-028. Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ027. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ036-041-042. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ031-033>035-043-051-052.



JWA/Bezenek

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GIXA2	26 mi	21 min	E 5.1 G 8	40°F			999.9 hPa	38°F
SPXA2	26 mi	29 min	NNE 2.9 G 11				1000.5 hPa
SLXA2	35 mi	29 min	NW 7 G 12	39°F			999.6 hPa	36°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK	36 mi	46 min	NNW 1.9 G 4.1	39°F	43°F		1003 hPa
SXXA2	38 mi	29 min	E 7 G 15	41°F			1000.8 hPa	37°F
CRGA2	47 mi	40 min	WNW 2.9 G 5.1	38°F			1002.2 hPa	32°F
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK	60 mi	54 min	ENE 1.9 G 5.1	40°F			1002.7 hPa	40°F

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK

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Last 24hr

E10 G17

SE12 G16

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SE12 G16

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SE19 G26

SE15 G25

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SE12 G17

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SE11 G14

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SE8 G13

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAHY

Wind History from AHY (wind in knots)

	3 PM	4 PM	5 PM	6 PM	7 PM	8 PM	9 PM	10 PM	11 PM	12 AM	1 AM	2 AM	3 AM	4 AM	5 AM	6 AM	7 AM	8 AM	9 AM	10 AM	11 AM	12 PM	1 PM	2 PM
Last 24hr	--	SE11 G24	E16 G26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	E8	--	--
1 day ago	SE12	--	--	SE15	E17	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	S5 G24	--	--	--
2 days ago	--	SE3	--	3	--	SE5	SE5	SE5	SE3	Calm	--	--	--	S6	--	--	S3	E5	E8	E10	--	S8	S8	SE8

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Tide / Current Tables for Divide Head, Cholmondeley Sound, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Saltery Cove, Skowl Arm, Kasaan Bay, Alaska

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