Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saxman, AK

SHORT TERM
/ Through Sunday morning / Overall pattern is not changing for Southeast Alaska as a general mid level low persists over the Gulf of Alaska and continue rotate trough with associated frontal bands into the panhandle through the weekend. The favored location for the rain fall will be across the southern portion of the panhandle with a couple of inches of rain anticipated.
Another developing wave will be moving into the southern gulf and be rotating into ward the Southeast Gulf early part of the upcoming week. Frontal band for the weekend will be on the gusty side for the southern panhandle, ( see the marine section. ) Land areas could see gusts reaching up to 40 mph at times early Saturday.

LONG TERM
Looking towards the weekend and next week, the rainy weather looks to stick around for several days.

Key points: -Moderate to heavy rain expected in the panhandle beginning Saturday. Lighter rain Monday, heavy rain returns Tuesday and Wednesday.
-Stronger-than-normal southerly winds will move into the southern panhandle.

Details: The southern portions of Alaska will continue to remain rather unsettled given the time of year with periods of rainfall likely each day from the Kenai Peninsula eastward to the southeast Panhandle region. A weakening low pressure system this weekend will give way to an incoming low from the Bering that will set up over the central Gulf through the middle of next week, with moist onshore flow.

Rainfall greatest coverage and intensity is expected from Icy Strait to the southern Panhandle. A heavy rain area remains depicted in the WPC medium range hazards graphic for the 25th to the 28th, given how late in the season this is, and the duration of the rainfall expected. The highest rainfall is likely to be south of the Sitka area based on the latest model guidance.

The EFI tables give the greatest amounts of rain from Monday afternoon into Wednesday night. Not only are the models showing high confidence of elevated amounts of rain, there is a Shift of Tails of near 1 to 2 - which tells us that this is an extreme event for this time of year. For Ketchikan, there is high confidence (>60%) chance of getting at least 2 inches of rain over 24 hours beginning Monday afternoon. And it's a similar story for areas around Prince of Wales Island and for Metlakatla.

For wind speeds, the EFI is highlighting stronger-than-normal southerly wind speeds Saturday through mid-week. Marine wind speeds in the southern inner channels could get upwards of 20 to 35 knots with the strongest speeds found in southern Clarence Strait and in the outside waters.

AVIATION
VFR conditions remain the rule across the panhandle this evening, though some showers have been noted from time to time occasionally dropping ceilings or vis down to MVFR briefly. These showers over the north should diminish through the night as flow turns more easterly overnight. Focus then shifts to the front moving into the southern panhandle overnight. Conditions will likely start to drop to MVFR ceilings (2500 ft) by early morning across the south due to the precipitation moving in. Some Gusty surface winds and weak low level wind shear is also possible from Frederick Sound southward starting Friday morning as winds at around 2000 ft top out around 25 to 30 kt from the SE. The winds and precip are expected to persist into Friday night.

MARINE
Outside: Friday, a weak front increases winds and waves along the southeastern gulf coast. Expect at most strong breezes to near gales in southern Clarence Strait and Dixon Entrance Friday morning as the front moves through. These winds will relax in the afternoon to evening timeframe to moderate breezes, but do not expect these winds to stay low for long. The stronger front increases winds and waves for the gulf Saturday morning. Late Friday night into Saturday morning, southerly winds across the southern gulf increase to 25 to 35 kts. There is an 80% chance that wind gusts will reach strong gale force of 40 to 45 kts for these southern areas. At this time on Saturday, wave heights will build to 10 to 12 ft west of POW and over N Dixon Entrance. Expect winds to diminish down to a fresh to strong breeze Saturday afternoon and continue through Sunday. Looking towards next week, there is early indications of a stronger system moving into the panhandle. At this time, expect at least gale force winds in Dixon entrance and Clarence Strait. These winds may extend up to Cross Sound, but confidence is low.

Inside: The current ridge over much of the inner channels will begin to break down tonight, with many north south facing channels flipping to northerly winds. On Friday, the first system will reach the panhandle increasing winds near cross sound to 15 to 25 kts and winds in Southern Clarence Strait to 20 to 30 kts. The stronger front makes its way to the panhandle Saturday increasing southern channels to near gale to gale force winds.

A marine weather statement has been issued focused on the stronger winds and waves this weekend.

HYDROLOGY
As far as rainfall amounts, latest EURO and GFS ensembles are averaging about 1 to 2 inches of rain each day beginning Saturday. Areas on the windward side of mountains could get a little more. Overall, just a rainy week ahead but no flooding is expected at this time. A stronger system will be moving in Monday and Tuesday a wet moisture plume and a weak atmospheric river for the southern half of the panhandle.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641>644-661>664-671-672.