Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Craig, AK

SHORT TERM
/through Monday night/...A front pushing through northeast Gulf coast this morning will work into northern panhandle this afternoon and then into southern panhandle tonight. Rain ahead and along the front will slowly spread southeast across the panhandle, with rain rates decreasing as the front weakens as is works ashore. The frontal boundary will stall and weaken further on Monday across the southern panhandle with lighter rain continuing. Gusty southerly winds still expected for this afternoon/evening with the frontal passage, especially across the northern panhandle, although slightly weaker than previously thought. Gust 20 to 35 mph possible across north.
Lighter winds expected for Monday. Weak ridge of high pressure behind the front will nudge into central panhandle and some a bit of drier weather. Further north, onshore flow above the ridge will bring a continued chance of rain for the Icy Strait corridor on north and over to northeast Gulf coast. Some of this rain on the backside of the front could be convective showery in nature as colder temps aloft will bring some modest instability, but likely not enough for any lightning. Rain amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches over northeast Gulf coast, 0.5 to 1 inch for Icy Strait corridor, to 0.25 to 0.5 inches southern panhandle. With the drier, colder airmass in place ahead of the front, snow levels could initially be low enough over the northern highways (1.5-2.5kft) late tonight into Sunday morning for snow to mix in as the rain begins near White Pass and the upper reaches of the Haines Highway, but no accumulation expected. Any snow will quickly transition to all rain by late morning as snow levels quickly rebound. Cooler temps prevail with highs in mid 40 to low 50s.

LONG TERM
/Tuesday through Friday/...A weaker wave will move north from Haida Gwaii Tuesday and Wednesday, providing enough disturbance to generate scattered showers, mostly in the southern panhandle. The larger impacts may come as early as Thursday from a much deeper low. The latter low will intensify in the western Gulf, and will have ample to mature as it looks to be held out over the open waters of the Gulf by some Fujiwara Effect related to a smaller orbiting low which most guidance has combining together.

By Friday the extent of its influence will likely reach us here in SEAK. Exact timing still differs between deterministic guidance runs. One of the larger variables being how long the two lows orbit one another before joining and allowing the resultant low to track east. A later arrival will most likely result in a stronger system, but there is good confidence in strong gusty winds, especially over coastal waters, and widespread rainfall Friday heading into the weekend.

AVIATION
/Through 12Z Monday/...A front moves into our region today, bringing deteriorating conditions across the NE Gulf coast and northern panhandle initially, then passes over the southern region overnight and into Monday morning. Widespread VFR conditions seen early this morning will soon become predominately MVFR by this afternoon. The front has already brought CIGs at PAYA down to 1800 ft, with other sites following a similar trend as the front moves further east. Lowering clouds and rain expected to reach other northern sites later this morning into midday, seeing CIGs as low as 1000 ft at times with reduced VSBY (4-5SM) due to passing showers. Conditions will improve later Monday as the front exits the region, though there is a small possibility of fog formation across northern sites tomorrow morning, but will be dependent on residual upper-level cloud cover post-frontal.

Winds are expected to increase with this frontal passage with the strongest winds near PAGY and PAHN increasing to 15-20 kts, gusts to 30kts, by around 18Z. Winds look to remain elevated through the day and decrease overnight. Many other sites will likely see wind speeds around 10-15 kts from the south. There is some concern for LLWS near PAYA from 15Z to 18Z as a strong 925mb jet pushes in along the NE coast behind the front, though this is mainly for speed difference as direction is fairly uniform in the lower levels. And due to the convective nature of this system, low level turbulence near terminals and mountain tops also cannot be ruled out.

MARINE
Outside waters: The front will transit the waters west to east today with a wide swath of S to SEly 25-35kt along the coastal waters. Gales are expected for Icy Cape to Cape Suckling this morning and over the Fairweather Grounds into the afternoon. Seas will build 10 to 14+ feet with the frontal passage. Improving marine conditions behind the front Sunday night, with winds becoming gentle to moderate SWly and seas becoming 5 to 7 ft by Monday and continuing into Tuesday. Increasing winds and seas on Wednesday as a potential storm force low/front lifting into the Gulf and impacting the coastal waters by late week, with widespread gales and seas 15-20+ft likely.

Inside waters: South to southeasterly winds will become fresh to strong with the frontal passage, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for Frederick Sound on north. As the front shifts southeast Sunday night, winds will diminish across the northern channels, but southerlies will pick up and become fresh in Clarence Strait into Monday. Otherwise, marine conditions will become relatively benign early to begin the work week with winds becoming light to gentle. Similarly to the gulf, increasing winds and seas are anticipated by midweek ahead of a potential stronger low/front impacting the region late week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651-652-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-032-034-053- 641>644-661>664-671.