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PKZ641 Dixon Entrance To Cape Decision Out To 15 Nm- 400 Am Akst Fri Dec 1 2023
.small craft advisory through late tonight...
Today..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
Tonight..E wind 20 kt becoming S late. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. Rain.
Sat..S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. Rain.
Sat night..S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
Sun..S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
Mon..SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
Tue..S gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

PKZ600
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 011538 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 638 AM AKST Fri Dec 1 2023

SHORT TERM
An extended front associated with a broadening area of low pressure in the Gulf will continue to bring rain and snow to the Panhandle throughout Friday morning. Precipitation in the northern Panhandle is expected to taper off by the afternoon with little to no snow accumulation aside from higher elevations, while the southern half of the panhandle will likely not see much of a break. Guidance continues to be somewhat uncertain as to which of the multiple circulations in the southern Gulf will become dominant later in the day, which will then drive the forecast in terms of coverage of precipitation for the second half of the day into Saturday.

With this in mind, inherited precipitation forecast was only slightly altered to reflect potential for the extended front to retreat southward briefly before a northward resurgence. This scenario would play out with one of the shortwave features escaping the cluster of circulations in the southern Gulf. If this were not to come to fruition, then the northern panhandle would likely see a more extended break before the next more organized system develops in the Gulf Saturday. For more, see the long term forecast discussion.

Regardless of the above scenario, a gale force front is expected to push inland in the southern panhandle this morning with strong winds with gusts up to 40 mph possible. Inside waters from Clarence Strait up to Sumner Strait will likely see sustained winds up to 25 knots in the morning as the front pushes inland.
With the orientation of the pressure gradient offshore, Icy Strait and Cross Sound will also see winds of 25 to 30 kt this morning gradually diminish through the day.

LONG TERM
Early Saturday, the ongoing low-pressure system in the Gulf will gradually dissipate, offering a temporary respite before another robust low-pressure system develops later late Saturday night. Anticipate widespread precipitation sweeping across the central and southern regions, with a mix of rain and snow in the far northern areas through Sunday. This system is expected to swiftly transition inland by Sunday evening, causing the widespread precipitation to diminish and become more sporadic.

By late Sunday night, an upper-level trough will take a negative tilt, facilitating the movement of a mature low-pressure system into the southern Gulf. This system will usher in a wider extent of sustained gale-force winds across our coastal and offshore waters. In specific areas like Hecate Strait, Dixon, and segments of the southwest coast, gusts may potentially escalate to severe- gale levels. While the extent of these stronger winds encroaching into Clarence remains uncertain, the latest forecast package update will show an increase in wind intensity and duration in the southern areas from Monday into Tuesday.

Simultaneously, this approaching low-pressure system will usher in a notable influx of moisture, resulting in widespread moderate rain across the central and southern communities. However, analyses from CW3E Scripps' atmospheric river guidance tools suggest a limited duration and magnitude of Integrated Vapor Transport into the Panhandle. Consequently, this weather event is categorized as a weak atmospheric river, with anticipated rainfall amounts and rates within historical norms for this season. Should guidance indicate a northward shift of the stronger AR event over Canada, updates to the forecast will be imperative.

Regarding snowfall, temperatures at the 850mb level still don't favor substantial snow impacts for the majority of the region.
However, concerns persist for snow impacts at higher elevations along the Klondike and Haines routes. While snowfall is expected in the southern mountainous regions, the central and southern communities will see rainfall through Tuesday night, followed by a dip in snowlevels from Wednesday onwards into the latter part of the week.

AVIATION
/Until 12Z Saturday/...A weakening broad area of low pressure will move eastward through the southern Gulf and approach the southern Panhandle by the end of the 24-hour TAF period while continuing to weaken. This looks to keep flight conditions primarily within the VFR CIG and VIS category for the northern Panhandle, rarely dipping to within the MVFR category under a light snow or rain shower through the period. For the southern Panhandle, CIG and VIS conditions look to primarily remain within the MVFR category with rain being established over that area while rarely rising to within the VFR category through the period. Winds over the Outer Coast from around Sitka, southward, over the southern third of the Panhandle, and over the northern Lynn Canal area look to be rather gusty due to the tightened pressure gradient that will be present over those areas. Some LLWS out of a generally southeasterly direction centered between 1K and 2K ft above ground level of between 25 and 40 kt will be present with the highest magnitudes over the southern half of the Panhandle as the aforementioned low pressure system approaches from the west.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ323-327-328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ662>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-033-035-036-053-641>644-651- 652-661.

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Cape Flores
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Fri -- 03:26 AM AKST     8.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:56 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:37 AM AKST     4.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:20 PM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:17 PM AKST     9.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:27 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:14 PM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:27 PM AKST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Flores, Ulloa Channel, Alaska, Tide feet

Port Santa Cruz
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:23 AM AKST     8.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:56 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:33 AM AKST     4.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:20 PM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:14 PM AKST     10.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:28 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:15 PM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:23 PM AKST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Santa Cruz, Suemez Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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