Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cold Bay, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

A longwave trough has set up over the Bering Sea and into Western Alaska. Embedded within this longwave trough is multiple strong shortwaves which will move across the Bering and the Mainland and bring widespread rainfall. This pattern will linger on through the week with periods of widespread rainfall expected.

This afternoon, radar imagery across Southwest Alaska shows a brief respite in rainfall as one shortwave departs the area to the north as the next lifts northeast across the southern Bering this evening. As the surface low, now located just north of Nikolski, continues to track east, gusty southwesterly Small-Craft Advisory level winds are expected for Unalaska and the Alaska Peninsula and coastal waters south of these areas through Tuesday. Light to moderate rainfall stretching from the central Aleutians through the Alaska Peninsula will push east this evening and move inland into Southwest Alaska through Tuesday. Widespread rain over Southwest Alaska will begin to slowly taper off from southwest to northeast through Tuesday night, with rain lingering across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley through Wednesday morning.

The pattern continues as the next weak low enters the western Bering and takes an eastward track along the Aleutian Chain and Alaska Peninsula, bringing another round of rain and breezy winds Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. By Wednesday night, rainfall is once again expected to overspread the Southwest mainland, with the heaviest rainfall expected for Bristol Bay and along the western Alaska Range as this low takes a more southerly track. High temperatures for the week remain below 60F due to the widespread cloud cover and rainfall, with low temperatures dipping into the low 40s for many locations by midweek. Wind speeds over the Southwest Mainland will generally be southerly and westerly at 10 to 15 mph through the week as the shortwaves move through.

-JH

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

No change from previous Long Term discussion...

Longwave trough remains in place over the Mainland through the end of this week. Multiple waves of moisture moving through Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will provide periods of light to moderate rainfall during this time. Utilizing an ensemble mean forecast model approach mitigates the outlier differences while keeping this long range forecast trend.

Southcentral: Waves of moisture move through the Gulf bringing periods of locally moderate rainfall to Prince William Sound, Kodiak Island and Eastern Kenai Peninsula through Saturday.
Persistent southerly to southwesterly flow will provide the conditions for stronger waves of moisture to track inland to the Copper River Basin, Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys. This flow will also result in seasonally cooler pattern from increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures.

Southwest: With the trough firmly in place, multiple low pressure systems will move through the Bering Sea. Periods of light to moderate rain are expected from the Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula through Friday. These conditions reach the Mainland by Saturday keeping the pattern of seasonally cool temperatures and cloud cover through this upcoming weekend.

-Johnston/DD

AVIATION

PANC...Isolated rain showers will persist into the late afternoon over the terminal before a more robust round of rain moves in this evening. MVFR conditions overnight through Wednesday can be expected during this second round of steady rain. Turnagain Arm winds will continue to bend into the terminal this afternoon through late afternoon Tuesday with gusts reaching as high as 30 kts.

-Johnston