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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 450 Pm Akdt Fri Sep 22 2023
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..SE wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
Sun night..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed..S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 222253 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 253 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2023

SHORT TERM
/ through Saturday night / A vertically stacked low over the Northeast Gulf is in a long wave trough, that covers the Gulf with the northward flow pattern Friday afternoon over Haida Gwaii and the southern panhandle. Expect to see this trough drift east slightly to accommodate a low moving into the area south of the far Southeast Gulf to stall about 600 nm west of Washington State Sunday afternoon. Frontal bands will be rotating northward Sunday night and Monday into the southern panhandle.

The stalled low in the NE gulf, has a number of convective cells developing in the rotational flow and these are moving into the Northeast Gulf coast and northern panhandle. There is a low probability that this could spark isolated thunderstorms through the evening, so have added that to the marine and land forecasts into the early evening hours. As of 230 pm, NLDN and GLD satellite sensing has not detected any strikes.

The impulse in the southern part of trough has started turning northward in a narrow plume and expect to see that lift across the central panhandle tonight and Saturday. Light to moderate rainfall is possible and is not expected to cause flooding issues, however, as this is falling across the saturated grounds form Yesterday and today, we will keep a close eye on the situation.


LONG TERM
Sunday through Friday/...For the start of the mid range an advancing gale force low from the N Pacific moves off the Haida Gwaii coast. Question is still its eventual track, either remaining off Haida Gwaii or tracking northward over the AK Gulf.
For Sunday initial wave pushing up from the south moves first bands of precip in then pulls west. Winds over the SE Gulf pick up to at least max small craft with some gale force bands. This is followed by the main low center Monday which mainly hits British Columbia. For Sunday while fair agreement on continued showers over the south and eastern coast some indications that this wave will stay further east before the eventual westward track keeping everyone under rain showers. For the main system the two solutions are the low will stay off the Haida Gwaii coast through mid week keeping some rain over the south and increased winds for the SE Gulf. The alternate solution is the low tracks northward over the panhandle while weakening resulting in rain for the entire panhandle again but a diminished Gulf wind forecast. Ensembles have been depicting the low eventually moving northward mid week while weakening with greater spread among operational models.
Getting better agreement with latest runs that the low remains off of Haida Gwaii until Tuesday. Still a typical fall pattern with mild temps, on and off days of rain, and breezy winds at times.
However no significant rainfall or winds for SE AK expected through the long range. .

AVIATION
Showers will continue across the panhandle this afternoon and evening as a low pressure continues to work onshore. These showers will decrease in coverage as the evening goes on. But until then, some showers will bring periods of MVFR and IFR showers will continue to impact that area. As the clouds clear out during the evening hours, there is the potential for reduced CIGs and VIS to develop during the overnight hours. Any fog that does develop across the area will likely persist until after sunrise tomorrow.

HYDROLOGY
Atmospheric river is exited the panhandle today, although a second wave will rolling northward into the flow overnight and Saturday. Followed by low and its associated frontal band lifting north into the southern panhandle from the south Sunday night and Monday. Model guidance suggest while some additional rain from these will fall across the saturated soils from late week deluge, significant flooding is not anticipated.
Currently 2 flood advisories are in effect and with the rain tapering off, think these may be near the end of the their effectiveness.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Hollis Anchorage
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Sat -- 01:07 AM AKDT     2.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:07 AM AKDT     10.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:11 PM AKDT     6.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:14 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:46 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:28 PM AKDT     13.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:55 PM AKDT     Moonset
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Hollis Anchorage, Kasaan Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Karta Bay
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Sat -- 01:16 AM AKDT     2.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:08 AM AKDT     10.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:20 PM AKDT     6.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:15 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:46 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:29 PM AKDT     13.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:54 PM AKDT     Moonset
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Karta Bay, Kasaan Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

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