Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nelson Lagoon, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Chances for widespread precipitation decrease through the day as a ridge builds across the Bering Sea and Alaskan mainland. This will create warmer and generally drier conditions for the start of the weekend. Scattered showers will still be possible, particularly in the Kuskokwim Valley and across higher terrain, as afternoon instability becomes more influential beneath the ridge.
Daytime temperatures will climb into the mid 50s across the Southwest mainland by Friday and Saturday.

For the Bering Sea, temperatures remain cooler as a low passes between Adak and the Pribilof Islands, exiting to the east across Unalaska this afternoon. As its front progresses eastward it will bring rain from Adak to the Alaska Peninsula, tapering through Friday morning. Farther west on Friday morning, a larger low, lifting north along the coast of Kamchatka, will push its front sweeping across the entire Bering Sea and Aleutian Island chain.
Small craft winds and moderate to heavy rain will be associated with this front. Winds up to gale force will span an area from Attu to west and south of Adak. The front advances to the Pribilofs and Unalaska by Saturday morning, the Alaska Peninsula by Saturday afternoon, and the Southwest mainland by Sunday morning. This front weakens as it progresses eastward, greatly reducing winds, but moderate rainfall is yet expected to reach the coastal mainland. The low then races south across the Eastern Aleutians and into the North Pacific by Sunday afternoon.



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A broad upper level low stretches from Siberia across the Bering before angling into the Gulf of Alaska. Several shortwaves help the low centers slip through the pattern as the low becomes more organized over the Eastern Bering and Western Mainland by the end of the forecast period. The most persistent low anchors over the Gulf of Alaska through midweek. Models favor the GFS through the new week maintaining strengths and tracks of features.

Lingering showers are expected over the Southern half of Mainland Alaska through Wednesday. A rain-wrapped low and front pushing across the Central Aleutians and Bering brings moderate rain and locally gusty winds into the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska through Monday. The low sweeps into the Gulf of Alaska, spreading the rain into Southcentral Alaska and North to the Alaska Range until Wednesday. Snow is expected over higher elevations, diminishing Tuesday. In the West, a well developed North Pacific low and front does a drive-by over the Western and Central Aleutians for Tuesday and Wednesday before curving back into the North Pacific.

- Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period.
Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will increase early this afternoon and persist through the evening hours. Gusts up to 25 knots are expected before diminishing overnight.