Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Edna Bay, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 182246 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 246 PM AKDT Fri Apr 18 2025

SHORT TERM
Not as much to write about for the short term, with the main takeaways being a diminishing trend of showers, clearing skies and lighter winds Saturday, and widespread fog development Saturday night.

Currently, a weak shortwave trough is passing over the southern panhandle, slightly increasing winds in the southern panhandle and bringing additional showers. Not expecting huge accumulations, as water vapor GOES satellite products show a lack of significant moisture over the area. Therefore, expect most places to at least get wet, but west facing mountains to have increased rain totals up to around a quarter of an inch through tonight.

As for tomorrow, expect showers to decrease in frequency from north to south, with a high likelihood of seeing some blue in the sky. Northwesterly flow aloft and downward motion in the 850-500 mb layer look to keep winds light on Saturday. With recent showers and lack of sufficient drying, in combination with fast temperatures drops from clearing skies and lighter winds, expecting fog.

LONG TERM
Early Sunday the broad Rossby Wave that pampered us with abnormally wet/windy weather Friday will be departing into Canada, with a region of subsiding air associated with confluence aloft and negative vorticity advection upstream of the 500mb trough axis moving over the Panhandle. With the lack of any tight surface pressure gradient, expecting winds to be relatively light; fresh to moderate breezes. Primary threat will be redevelopment of fog Sunday morning across the interior communities and a shallow cloud deck along the coast. Skies clear through Sunday afternoon, shaping up to be an excellent day. As we get a taste of summer, a closed low will be weakening while transiting the Aleutian Arc, bringing onshore flow and rain from an occluding front over the Panhandle into Monday/Tuesday. Expect easterly winds to freshen up to strong breezes along Cape Suckling.

An additional focus in the mid-range is the redevelopment of a surface low as the parent system digs into the Gulf Wednesday.
Some deterministic models are consistently placing gale force winds, something to keep an eye on for mariners planning the Cross Sound- Prince Williams transit. Current forecast published this afternoon reflects confidence toward sustained easterly near-gales forming Wednesday.
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