Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Perryville, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday afternoon)...

A pattern of persistence over Southwest Alaska and the Bering will make for a repetitive weather regime through the remainder of the week across the region. Temperatures in the Southwest interior have been warmer than previously expected, and with continued clear skies, the warmer trend will persist. However, along the coast and over the vast majority of the Bering Sea, ridging has settled over the area allowing for a very large swath of low stratus clouds and fog over the area. The lowest ceilings and fog will be most prominent in the overnight and early morning hours, lifting to a low stratus in the afternoons. Fog and low stratus behavior is highly dependent on smaller-scale dynamics that are difficult for weather models to represent, which makes the finer details of the fog forecast challenging, such as precise timing and density of the fog.

Given the ample surface heating over the Southwest Alaska interior, convective activity is expected in some capacity beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing the following afternoons. One criteria we will continue to watch the next few days is upper-level support for these potential systems. Areas with more support may see an increased amount or number of convective cells or thunderstorms. Overall, the upper level forcing for these two days looks fairly weak and chaotic, which suggests thunderstorm development will likely be isolated and produce relatively infrequent lightning activity.

A new low pressure system is poised to approach the southern Alaska Peninsula by Friday afternoon. This system's rainfall and movement in the overall air column may bring a reprieve in the fog over the area, but replace it with continued low stratus and light rain. Easterly gale-force winds are expected to establish over the southern side of the Peninsula, including for communities such as Sand Point, persisting into Saturday morning.

-CL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

An upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf will remain nearly stationary through Sunday and then move eastward by Monday. This is important as it blocks an originating Pacific Low from going into the eastern Gulf, which will bring showers for Southwest Alaska and the eastern Aleutians through Tuesday. The combination of the anticyclonic flow aloft from the ridge and cyclonic flow from the low pressure system will enhance southerly flow ushering in warm and moist air into the northern and western Gulf coast.
This is expected to bring precipitation to Southcentral Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, and Kodiak Island. There is high confidence that there will be periods of heavy rain for Kodiak Island through Prince William Sound Saturday into Sunday. Lingering showers are possible Monday through Tuesday as the southerly enhanced flow shuts off.
Forecast confidence is low for the western Aleutians.

-SS


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period.
It's likely southeast winds blowing out of the turnagain arm will return sometime this evening, but don't expect wind gusts much above 20 kts at the terminal. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, but there is a very high chance this activity will stay confined to the mountains.