Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Naukati Bay, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 200016 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 416 PM AKDT Thu Jun 19 2025

SHORT TERM
Showers have continued to stream westward across the panhandle from British Columbia as a broad upper level circulation pulls moisture and developing afternoon convection over the area.
In the far northern panhandle, Convection developing over southern Yukon Territory continues to slowly drift towards the border, with none quite making it as of this discussion. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon and early evening this Thursday for the far northern panhandle, as well as the eastern central inner channels. However, most of these storms are expected to dissipate or weaken significantly before reaching the inner channels after passing over the Coast Mountains and ice fields.

An early morning stratus deck that developed over Lynn Canal and the Chilkat Valley served to delay daytime heating for Haines and Skagway Thursday. This also lead to a delayed onset of sea breezes in those areas, as well as lessening their strength by this afternoon, compared to Wednesday.

High pressure building over the interior and a ridge building over the central gulf will be the primary influences heading into the weekend, as the broad low over the southern gulf finally vacates the area. Skies will begin to clear from north to south overnight Thursday and into Friday. Aside from localized sea breezes Friday afternoon, winds in the inner channels are expected to be largely light and variable as the gradient overall slackens overnight into Friday. With the clearing skies, temperatures in the far northern panhandle are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s, with highest temperatures expected a bit inland in areas not influence by sea breeze effects. A heat advisory has been issued for the upper elevations of the Haines Highway including Klukwan, lasting through Saturday. Highest temperatures expected in the late afternoon through early evening hours each day. For more information on this warm and dry pattern, see the long term discussion.

LONG TERM
A ridge of high pressure is building over the interior and is sliding towards the panhandle. This ridge will bring dry and warmer-than-normal weather to the area.

Key messages: -Sunny and dry through the weekend.
-Afternoon temps will warm to upper 60s to 70s for most of the area.
Isolated pockets of near 80 degrees are likely.
-A potential marine layer may keep temps along the coast a little cooler.
-Ridge breaks down early next week, ushering in low chances for rain beginning on Tuesday.
-Wind speeds in marine areas will increase for the afternoon hours as sea breezes kick in. Speeds will decrease in the evenings.

Details:

Upcoming ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather, clearer skies, and some warmer-than-normal temperatures. Models showing 850mb temperatures between 10 and 15 degrees C moving into the area.
850mb temps like this means surface high temps in the 70s are usually a pretty good bet.

That being said, there is evidence of a marine layer that could form along the coast. This could give areas along the coast overcast skies and lowered high temps in the 50s to low 60s. Due to the nature of marine layers, confidence is low on where the marine layer sets up but it will be worth monitoring through the weekend.

The ridge breaks down early next week, allowing a trough to slide into the Gulf of Alaska, bringing back the chances for rain beginning on Tuesday.

Winds look to stay on the lighter side over the region through the weekend. Exceptions include Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage where the sea breeze may set up, increasing winds to around 15 to 20 kts for the afternoon before calming back down in the evening.

The other exception will be along the southern outer coast and coming out of Chatham Strait and Clarence Strait, where northerly to northwesterly winds upwards of 15 to 25 kt are looking likely. These winds are not expected to last long, as they look to calm back down Sunday afternoon due
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