AVIATION

LIFR to VFR flight conditions across this panhandle this morning with isolated fog and lowered CIGS, anticipating patchy fog to dissipate mid morning through 14-18z. Big story through TAF period will be a strong low pushing into the eastern Gulf of Alaska through the afternoon. Anticipate prevailing MVFR or worse flight conditions with CIGS AoB 3000 to 5000ft and intermittent vsbys down to 4SM or less developing through 00z this afternoon and into the evening. Winds increase across the panhandle through mid afternoon with sustained winds up to 15 to 20kts and gusts up to 30kts, lasting into the late evening. Mechanical turbulence and LLWS increase through the afternoon along the southeast Gulf Coast, spreading northeastward through Friday evening. Strongest LLWS and mechanical turbulence expected across the southern panhandle 21z to 06z before decreasing by 09-12z Saturday morning.



HYDROLOGY

Key points. Two Atmospheric rivers will impact the region: Friday into Sunday. Monday into Wednesday.

The trends and divergences of different models over the last week in the placement, magnitude, and extent of multiple atmospheric rivers have been a challenge to pinpoint impacts, with guidance still struggling to show some agreement 72 hours out. For now, we can say that two atmospheric rivers will impact the Panhandle: the first Friday into Sunday and the second, Monday into Wednesday.

Today into Sunday. A weak AR-1 will slide into the southern region Friday bringing heavy rainfall into Saturday, buy-and- large, expect 2 to 4 inches of rain in 24 hours, with the most in the south. Sunday is the big unknown, with the GFS continuing to be the outlier suggesting a longer duration event into later Sunday. For now, trending with the ECMWF solution. In simple terms, expect rainfall to continue Sunday, but at lighter rates, with the north likely seeing rain come to an end for a few hours.

Early Monday into Wednesday. A moderate to potentially strong atmospheric river will move in, with trends bringing more moisture further north for a longer time frame. While 24 hour amounts are a bit far to say with any single value certainty, we have confidence there will be moderate to heavy rain for 24 hours, along with elevated winds from the extensive low in the western Gulf. Ranges from long range guidance give about 4 to 7 inches from Monday into Wednesday. To put this range into perspective, 8 inches of rainfall in a 3 day period for Ketchikan is classified by return intervals as a 1 year event. A very wet fall storm with wind concerns but 24 hour rainfall values remain separate from a more extreme event.

For this weekend, significant river rise is expected in the south but flooding is not anticipated. Some flooding for the start of the week is starting to look more likely but will ultimately depend on how much rain we receive through Sunday and the placement of our next AR.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind this evening for AKZ322-326-329.
Strong Wind from 4 PM AKDT this afternoon through this evening for AKZ323.
Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ327.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-034>036-641>644-661>664.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-032-033-053-651-652-671-672.