Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Loring, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 10:06PM Sunday July 12, 2020 3:27 PM PDT (22:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:18AMMoonset 1:00PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 1145 Am Akdt Sun Jul 12 2020
Today..Light winds becoming se 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tonight..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon night..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Tue..SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft then 2 ft or less.
Wed..SE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Loring, AK
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location: 55.97, -131.52     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 122153 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 153 PM AKDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SHORT TERM. Ridge of high pressure moved onshore and is expected to stall along the coastal range Sunday night. Scattered rain showers, mainly under a wave riding north over the ridge, will diminish through the evening, just in time for another system to move in with more rain. For now kept fog out of the forecast due to expectation of lingering cloud cover, however with the diminishing showers and a few breaks could see more radiational fog development tonight. An eastward tracking low south of the Aleutians will join and be invigorated by an upper level low moving from near Norton Sound south towards Kodiak Island. The surface low will deepen to near 1000 mb as it moves into the northern gulf. The rain associated with this low/front will spread into the area Monday and Monday night. A second wave is expected to develop on the trailing cold front and then move to the southern half of the panhandle by Tuesday. The surface low will begin to weaken and dissipate Tuesday night. Still some timing differences on the front, with NAM being the fastest solution.

Atmospheric river will clip the southern portion of the panhandle with the second wave. Long fetch of moisture from connection to the mid tropics advancing across the north Pacific will bring in periods of heavy rain. The forecast rainfall numbers have so far remained the same with roughly 1.0 to 2.5 inches into Tuesday night.

Lynn Canal winds bumped to small craft Sunday evening. Coastal water winds under the advancing front will increase to 30 to 35 kt, possibly 40 kt by Monday evening. Strongest winds will be over the NE Gulf. Southern inner channel winds will increase with the second wave by early Tuesday morning.

With the timing differences in the front limited forecast changes. Did increase winds with some GFS/GEM and nudged PoP to SREF for bit move coverage. Above average confidence in the rain/breezy forecast but still lower confidence on exact timing.

LONG TERM. /Tuesday through next Saturday/ As of 8pm Saturday. By Tuesday morning the front discussed in the short term period should be causing widespread rain over majority of the panhandle. This portion of the forecast has the highest confidence in a wet/cloudy day. Despite models having different timing/placement of the parent low all week, they agree that most of the day will see rain. The differences in low placement still have an affect on wind directions however. If the low is a bit further south, then winds through some of the northern inner channels will turn out of the north. Have increased wind speeds with the front to 25kt in a larger swath and out of Cross Sound and up Clarence Strait. Gusty winds are also likely in places like Ketchikan and portions of POW.

The low will weaken to a trough late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, but models differ on whether that will be over the gulf or if it will continue east over the south/central panhandle. Either way, expect rain to become more intermittent on Wednesday than Tuesday. Beyond Wednesday is less certain. The ECMWF has consistently shown a ridge building over the gulf Thursday with reduced chance of precip. The official forecast also shows that idea, but other models bring a new low over the southern half of the area, so things could change. As of now, there is agreement on a larger system approaching from the SW next Saturday.

The GFS continues to be the outlier with placement of the Tuesday low and has a much more active pattern than other models beyond that timeframe. WPC noted this as well and used more of the 12z ECMWF and I followed suit. Forecast confidence decreases for the second half of the week due to model spread.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-042-043-051.



PRB/Ferrin

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GIXA2 41 mi36 min SW 2.9 G 8.9 59°F 1016.9 hPa54°F
KEXA2 44 mi36 min E 8.9 G 14 58°F 1019.3 hPa49°F
SLXA2 44 mi35 min SSE 7 G 11 58°F 1016.8 hPa50°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 45 mi58 min SE 5.1 G 7 58°F 57°F1019.8 hPa
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 62 mi78 min S 5.1 G 5.1 60°F 1018 hPa58°F

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK44 mi95 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast58°F51°F78%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKT

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Bell Arm, Bell Island, Alaska
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Bell Arm
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:17 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:23 AM AKDT     4.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:17 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM AKDT     12.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:25 PM AKDT     2.86 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:00 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:31 PM AKDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 07:05 PM AKDT     13.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:24 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.24.35.57.59.611.312.111.810.48.35.9433.14.36.38.81112.713.412.911.49.37

Tide / Current Tables for Shrimp Bay, Alaska
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Shrimp Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:17 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:23 AM AKDT     4.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:18 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:15 AM AKDT     12.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:25 PM AKDT     2.86 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:00 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:31 PM AKDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 07:07 PM AKDT     13.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:23 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.24.35.57.49.511.21211.710.48.35.9433.14.36.38.710.912.613.312.811.49.27

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.