Marine Forecasts

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Loring, AK

   Hourly   EDIT   Help

---

Area Discussion for -

      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXAK67 PAJK 122153 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 153 PM AKDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SHORT TERM. Ridge of high pressure moved onshore and is expected to stall along the coastal range Sunday night. Scattered rain showers, mainly under a wave riding north over the ridge, will diminish through the evening, just in time for another system to move in with more rain. For now kept fog out of the forecast due to expectation of lingering cloud cover, however with the diminishing showers and a few breaks could see more radiational fog development tonight. An eastward tracking low south of the Aleutians will join and be invigorated by an upper level low moving from near Norton Sound south towards Kodiak Island. The surface low will deepen to near 1000 mb as it moves into the northern gulf. The rain associated with this low/front will spread into the area Monday and Monday night. A second wave is expected to develop on the trailing cold front and then move to the southern half of the panhandle by Tuesday. The surface low will begin to weaken and dissipate Tuesday night. Still some timing differences on the front, with NAM being the fastest solution.

Atmospheric river will clip the southern portion of the panhandle with the second wave. Long fetch of moisture from connection to the mid tropics advancing across the north Pacific will bring in periods of heavy rain. The forecast rainfall numbers have so far remained the same with roughly 1.0 to 2.5 inches into Tuesday night.

Lynn Canal winds bumped to small craft Sunday evening. Coastal water winds under the advancing front will increase to 30 to 35 kt, possibly 40 kt by Monday evening. Strongest winds will be over the NE Gulf. Southern inner channel winds will increase with the second wave by early Tuesday morning.

With the timing differences in the front limited forecast changes. Did increase winds with some GFS/GEM and nudged PoP to SREF for bit move coverage. Above average confidence in the rain/breezy forecast but still lower confidence on exact timing.

LONG TERM. /Tuesday through next Saturday/ As of 8pm Saturday. By Tuesday morning the front discussed in the short term period should be causing widespread rain over majority of the panhandle. This portion of the forecast has the highest confidence in a wet/cloudy day. Despite models having different timing/placement of the parent low all week, they agree that most of the day will see rain. The differences in low placement still have an affect on wind directions however. If the low is a bit further south, then winds through some of the northern inner channels will turn out of the north. Have increased wind speeds with the front to 25kt in a larger swath and out of Cross Sound and up Clarence Strait. Gusty winds are also likely in places like Ketchikan and portions of POW.

The low will weaken to a trough late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, but models differ on whether that will be over the gulf or if it will continue east over the south/central panhandle. Either way, expect rain to become more intermittent on Wednesday than Tuesday. Beyond Wednesday is less certain. The ECMWF has consistently shown a ridge building over the gulf Thursday with reduced chance of precip. The official forecast also shows that idea, but other models bring a new low over the southern half of the area, so things could change. As of now, there is agreement on a larger system approaching from the SW next Saturday.

The GFS continues to be the outlier with placement of the Tuesday low and has a much more active pattern than other models beyond that timeframe. WPC noted this as well and used more of the 12z ECMWF and I followed suit. Forecast confidence decreases for the second half of the week due to model spread.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-042-043-051.



PRB/Ferrin

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

---

Weather Reporting Stations

   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GIXA2	41 mi	36 min	SW 2.9 G 8.9	59°F			1016.9 hPa	54°F
KEXA2	44 mi	36 min	E 8.9 G 14	58°F			1019.3 hPa	49°F
SLXA2	44 mi	35 min	SSE 7 G 11	58°F			1016.8 hPa	50°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK	45 mi	58 min	SE 5.1 G 7	58°F	57°F		1019.8 hPa
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK	62 mi	78 min	S 5.1 G 5.1	60°F			1018 hPa	58°F

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

Last 24hr

SE8 G11

SE7 G11

SE8 G11

S5 G11

SE6 G9

SE4

E4 G8

E4 G8

E3

E6

E4

E3

E2

SE1

--

SE1

E1

SE2 G5

SE5

SE5

SE6

SE6

SE6

SE8

1 day ago

SE16 G26

SE17 G25

SE13 G19

SE14 G22

SE14 G21

SE15 G21

SE17 G25

SE13 G20

SE14 G19

SE15 G20

SE13 G18

SE10 G14

SE11 G16

SE11 G15

SE5 G10

E5 G8

SE7

SE9 G14

S7 G11

SE6 G10

S4 G9

SE5 G8

SE4

SE6 G10

2 days ago

E5 G8

SE6

S3 G9

E3

SE11

SE12 G15

E3 G9

SE10

SE9 G15

SE13 G18

SE7 G10

SE10

SE10 G13

SE9

SE9

SE12 G15

SE15 G21

SE13 G18

SE16 G21

SE13 G18

SE14 G19

SE17 G21

SE11 G16

SE10 G15

---

Airport Reports

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.

Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK	44 mi	95 min	SSE 6	10.00 mi	Overcast	58°F	51°F	78%	1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKT

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

Last 24hr

SE9

SE11

SE11 G18

SE11

SE6

E9

SE7

SE5

SE6

SE5

SE4

SE5

SE4

S4

SE4

Calm

E5

E6

SE7

SE6

E6

SE7

SE6

SE8

1 day ago

SE14 G23

SE14 G24

SE16 G23

SE14 G21

SE14 G23

SE14 G22

--

SE16 G21

SE12

SE16 G22

SE7

SE10 G18

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

SE10

SE12

SE10

SE11

SE10

2 days ago

SE11

SE7

SE14 G21

SE8

SE14 G20

SE12 G20

SE11

SE9

SE12 G18

SE13

SE13

SE13

SE13 G19

SE13

SE11 G20

SE11

SE12

SE14

SE13

SE8 G16

SE13

SE13 G25

SE14 G23

SE9

---

Tide / Current Tables for Bell Arm, Bell Island, Alaska

   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data

---

Tide / Current Tables for Shrimp Bay, Alaska

   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data

---

Weather Map

       (on/off)   Help Weather Map

---

GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

---

Wind Forecast for (18,4,5,8)

      (on/off)   Help

---

Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

   (on/off)   Help

---

Cookie Policy: This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser. Privacy Policy: I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway. Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.