Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Loring, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 182356 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 256 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

SHORT TERM. /Through Monday Night/ A big pattern change is on the way for Southeast Alaska as the arctic airmass that has plagued the Panhandle over the past couple weeks is scoured out by the return of warmer, maritime air from the Pacific ocean. The Southern Panhandle has already felt the effects of the incoming storm system as a low in the gulf is pushing a front slowly northward across the region. Cold outflow winds still remain over the Northern Panhandle for Saturday night but are expected to diminish tomorrow.

The High Wind Warning for downtown Juneau and Douglas remains in effect through the rest of Saturday evening with gusts in excess of 60 mph expected. Fortunately, after what seemed like a never ending Taku Wind event, winds are finally expected to die down Sunday through Monday in Juneau. The weather pattern responsible for the ongoing mountain wave event will drastically change over the coming days bringing an end to the high wind threat in Juneau. Strong wind headlines remain in effect for Haines and Skagway through early Thursday evening. Winds will remain out of the north in Lynn Canal through Monday, but are expected to be lighter compared to the past week. With winds weakening this weekend, wind chill values are also expected to improve around White Pass. The wind chill advisory is in effect until Sunday morning.

The focus now shifts from the outflow winds and cold temperatures to warmer weather and snow. A complex low in the SE Gulf is pushing a front northward through the Southern Panhandle this evening. Light snow has overspread much of the Southern Panhandle this afternoon and will continue to push northward overnight. Rain has been mixing in with snow along the outer coast as the warmer air has been pushing northward a bit faster than previously throught. A winter weather advisory is up for zone 28 (Ketchikan and Metlakatla) and zone 27 (Hydaburg, Craig, and Klawock) until 6 AM Sunday. Snow totals are expected to be on the lower end of the advisory criteria as temperatures have warmed just above freezing at many locations in the Southern Panhandle. The precip will gradually spread northward as the outflow starts to weaken. The northern panhandle will likely start to see some precip by late tonight at the latest. Not expecting as much accumulation as the Southern Panhandle, but a few additional inches of snow is not out of the question Saturday night into Sunday night.

The rest of the short range features a gradual warm up with continued chance to likely precip. Warmed both high and low temps by a few degrees over the next few days as the warmer air has been pushing northward a little faster than previously expected. The rain/snow line will continue to make its way further north through Sunday and Monday reaching the Juneau area around the late Monday morning to Monday afternoon timeframe.

LONG TERM. /Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday/ Long term forecast: strikingly different than that seen during the short range. To put it mildly the significant pattern change starting this weekend continues through next week and models just can't seem to get a handle on it. So let's start with what there is higher confidence in and go from there: Broad mid level low situated across the Arctic Ocean with active storm track moving south of the Aleutians and into the AK Gulf through the week. At the surface a series of low pressure systems will track eastward south of the Aleutians and toward the Gulf of Alaska, as part of the active North Pacific storm track. Later in the week some indication of another area of high pressure developing over the western of central AK Gulf. NAEFS ensembles show positive anomalies for temperatures through the week (the storm systems) with colder temps possibly next weekend (the area of high pressure) but otherwise not getting a clear signal. What there is low confidence in: Where these mid level waves track exactly, let alone the track of surface features, and thus most practical weather details. What does this mean for the forecast? Expect change. Change in weather, change in model solutions, and change in the final forecast. Leaned toward WPC/National Blend as base models but overall decided to limit changes to grids. For now.

Stayed with the general trend of warmer temperatures leading to a transition to rain or at least mixed precip for the southern and central panhandle along with a southerly wind shift through mid week. Northern locations still expected to be closer to freezing and more likely stay as snow. Latest operational models show fronts moving over the panhandle Monday onward to be fairly weak with: mild but above normal temps, no significant QPF, low snow totals, and relative seasonable winds. Some better model agreement for Monday so did made an adjustment to GFS/NAM. As the week progresses ECMWF stands out as the early outlier moving surface low much further north than GFS or Canadian. By the end of the week pick a model and you get a different solution on timing and track of the short waves resulting in large spread in pop, temps, you name it.

Regardless of timing of these waves and resulting precip the transition to or mix with rain on existing snow pack (especially packed snow) will result in icy conditions.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ027-028. Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ019-023-027-028. High Wind Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ025. Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for AKZ025. Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ018. Wind Chill Advisory until 6 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ018. MARINE . Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012. Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-041>043-051-052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031>036-053.



CM/PRB

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GIXA2	41 mi	30 min	E 15 G 20	38°F			1000.3 hPa	35°F
KEXA2	44 mi	30 min	E 11 G 25	36°F			1002.6 hPa	31°F
SLXA2	44 mi	29 min	E 7 G 21	38°F			999.8 hPa	33°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK	45 mi	52 min		40°F	43°F		1002.8 hPa
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK	62 mi	72 min	SE 21 G 28	39°F			1000.9 hPa	31°F

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK

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NW6 G22

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK	44 mi	4.5 hrs	S 7	10.00 mi	Light Rain	36°F	33°F	93%	1002.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKT

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Bell Arm, Bell Island, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Shrimp Bay, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for (5,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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