Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Loring, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 250324 AAA AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Juneau AK 327 PM AKST Wed Feb 24 2021

. UPDATE 520PM AKST Wed Feb 24 2021 . Temperatures have fallen to near freezing across much of the Panhandle this evening allowing snow to accumulate on surfaces. CMORPH2 and POES Snowfall Rate data indicates liquid precipitation rates upwards of 0.10 to 0.30 inches per hour are occurring throughout the region, with heaviest rates along southern facing slopes. Rates of this magnitude equate to snowfall rates of up to 1 to 2+ inches per hour, which have been verified by reports. Heavy snowfall rates have overcome any warming due to weak southerly flow allowing for P-type to remain snow with surface temps well into the 30s. Sufficient upper level divergence associated with the left exit region of an upper level jet over Haida Gwaii will persist through the evening. Best upper level dynamics move off to the east by Midnight as the jet moves east and moisture transport northward subsides as the nearly stacked system moves overhead across the South Central Panhandle. 00z RAOB soundings indicate a very stable layer located from the surface up to 600 mb, then steep lapse rates extending into the DGZ supporting efficient dendrite production and heavy snow rates. Expect moderate to heavy snow to persist through Midnight. As the low moves closer, still expecting a transition to rain for the Southern Outer Coast and Inner Channels with southerly flow, rising 1000-850mb heights, and temps slowly rising into the upper 30s. P-type expected remain mostly snow through much of the night across the northern half of the Panhandle as a northerly gradient persists keeping surface temps in the low to mid 30s.

With all this said, A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for much of the Southern Panhandle until Midnight for an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow. Across the south, expect most of the accumulating snow to be confined to elevated areas and higher elevations on the road systems before a changeover to rain occurs around midnight. Another advisory was issued for Hoonah and Tenakee Springs until Midnight for 3 to 5 inches of snow. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Elfin Cove and Pelican for an additional 3 to 5 inches of snow and snowfall rates exceeding 2+ inches per hour. Snow has been falling across other portions of the Panhandle as well including Juneau and Sitka; however surface temperatures just above freezing have limited significant accumulations at sea level. There is the possibility for spotty significant snow accumulations in these areas in wind sheltered locations and areas just above sea level.

SHORT TERM. /Through Friday/ Storm force low and its associated front are churning through the eastern Gulf and Panhandle this afternoon. Precip has already spread across most of the panhandle and winds are picking up across the southern panhandle and outer coast. High wind warnings remain up for Ketchikan, Metlakatla, Prince of Wales Island, and southern Baranof with scattered gusts of 50 to 60 mph already observed in some areas. As for Precip, 850 mb temps of -6C or colder as well as 1000-850 mb thicknesses of 1290 or less have allowed precip to change to all snow for many areas as precip rates started to pick up earlier this afternoon. Surface temps however are still sitting around 34 degrees F with the strong southerly winds. The result is that while the precip type is snow, accumulations have not been that substantial so far. Spotter reports as well as webcams show around an inch or two of accumulation in the central and southern inner channels and the higher elevations of Prince of Wales Island as of 3 pm.

The tricky part of the forecast for tonight is figuring out when the snow will change over to rain and how much snow areas will get. The colder conditions aloft are forecast to move into the northern panhandle as the low moves closer to the coast overnight which should (combined with the still strong southerly surface winds) change ptype over to rain. Highest snow accumulations will be in the vicinity of Kupreanof Island where up to 5 inches could accumulate before temperatures warm enough for rain to start mixing in, or the precip diminishes. Lower accumulations expected elsewhere as it will either be too warm (southern panhandle where up to 3 to 4 inches could accumulate), or easterly flow will curtail the amount of qpf received (Icy Strait area, Juneau, and the Northern inner channels where around 1 to 3 inches could accumulate). A winter weather advisory has been issued for zones 26, 27 and 28 until midnight for the accumulating snow. Uncertainly remains however as very small changes in precip rate and/or temperature could raise or lower how much accumulation an area gets with maybe an isolated area getting up to 6 inches overnight possible.

Thu into Fri will see a ridge building into the area behind the strong low. This feature interacting with a still strong trough over the western Canada will cause some rather strong W to NW flow over the Gulf waters into Fri. Gale force winds are expected over a large part of the gulf with wave heights reaching in excess of 20 ft. Strong wind gust will also likely be felt along the southern outer coast during this time as well. Expect gusts to 40 or 45 mph in places like western Baranof and Prince of Wales Island through early Fri. Otherwise weather turns quieter as showers with the onshore flow will be the main feature of the forecast into Fri aside from the higher winds.

Main changes for the short range forecast was the switch to more snow for the panhandle for tonight and local effects for winds and temperatures.

LONG TERM. /Friday through Wednesday night/ . An active weather pattern continues into the long term with at least two systems expected to impact Southeast Alaska through early next week.

The period begins with weak ridging building over the Gulf on Friday leading to WNW flow over Southeast Alaska. Showers will be diminishing in the morning becoming mainly dry for most of the area by the afternoon. Drier air moving in aloft should even lead to breaks in the clouds during the day. Unfortunately, the quiet weather won't last long as the next weather maker moves by Saturday morning.

Precipitation moves back into the region as a low moves into the NW gulf swinging a front into the Panhandle Saturday morning. Good upper level dynamics will be associated with this front as a SW-NE oriented jet pumps in subtropical moisture. The NAEFs and EC Situational Awareness Tables already show IVT values and PW 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal for this time period. There is potential for heavy rain across the region this weekend as there are signals an atmospheric river will develop with this front. P-type should be predominantly rain with the northerly track of the low and persistent southerly flow into the Panhandle; however precip may begin initially as snow before low level cold air is scoured out. Snow levels will rise significantly as this system pushes in with levels as high as 3,000 - 4000 ft across the central and southern Panhandle on Saturday. Current thinking is that a total of 1 - 2.5 inches of liquid will fall from Saturday morning through Sunday evening. A brief break in the heavier precipitation is expected Sunday night through Monday as the system departs and a zonal onshore flow pattern sets up.

Models and ensembles continue the active weather pattern into early next week as there is good agreement another system will move into the northern gulf by Tuesday. This system may be very similar to the previous one with good upper level dynamics and subtropical connections. Details regarding these systems will be fine tuned in the coming days. Overall confidence remains high in an active pattern continuing across the region. Focused on the weekend system for any changes to the forecast.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ026>028. Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ021-022-026. High Wind Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ023-027. Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ027. Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for AKZ023-027. Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ024. Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ025. Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ023. High Wind Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ028. Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for AKZ028. MARINE . Storm Warning for PKZ041>043-051. Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031>036-052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-053.



CM/EAL/CM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GIXA2	41 mi	28 min	ESE 17 G 26	37°F			990.6 hPa	36°F
KEXA2	44 mi	28 min	ESE 6 G 13	37°F			992.4 hPa	36°F
SLXA2	44 mi	27 min	SSE 8.9 G 19	38°F			991.5 hPa	35°F
SPXA2	44 mi	26 min	SE 20 G 25				990.4 hPa
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK	45 mi	43 min	SE 6 G 11	37°F	43°F		994.9 hPa
SXXA2	45 mi	26 min	E 11 G 21	36°F			992.6 hPa	35°F
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK	62 mi	81 min	ESE 17 G 31	35°F			991.2 hPa	35°F

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK	44 mi	38 min	S 6	6.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	34°F	34°F	100%	994.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKT

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Bell Arm, Bell Island, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Shrimp Bay, Alaska

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