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PKZ033 Southern Chatham Strait- 359 Am Akst Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory late this afternoon through late Wednesday night...
Today..NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the morning, then becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less then 6 ft. NEar ocean entrances, seas 7 ft building to 9 ft.
Tonight..S wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 9 ft, except 13 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Thu..S wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Thu night..S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Fri..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat..S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 291432 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 532 AM AKST Wed Nov 29 2023

SHORT TERM
With skies clearing overnight, areas of fog developed throughout the inner channels from Icy Strait southward, with dense fog being observed around Petersburg, Juneau, and Ketchikan. As temperatures continued to drop many areas saw the fog frost out. Cloud cover will continue to build ahead of the approaching gale force front this afternoon.

Minimal changes were made to the inherited forecast as the timing of the arrival of strong winds and precipitation for the panhandle remain on track. Northerly winds and clearing skies brought below freezing temperatures to the Icy Strait corridor and lows in the mid 30s as far south as Ketchikan. With this in mind, many areas are expected to have precipitation start as a mix and then transition to all rain from south to north. Those in the far northern Lynn Canal area could see all snow, or snow becoming a mix. This gives them the best chance for accumulating snow. And for the highway and higher elevations near Haines, heavy snow up to 6 inches is expected over a 12 to 15 hour time frame. Heaviest snowfall rates will be late Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning with rates around .5" to 1" per hour. Haines proper, and areas closer to sea level, is expected to get lighter amounts of snow, at around 3 inches of snow total, with some rain/snow mixing possible.

Land area winds could pick up a little bit, but overall, a big response is not expected. Gusts around 30 mph as the front passes are possible before speeds decrease. For more on expected marine conditions, see the marine section.

LONG TERM
/Thursday through Wednesday/...Through the extended range the overall pattern keeps a mid level trough over the region and thus SE AK will remain in a active weather pattern. This active pattern does not mean continuous precipitation but does mean uncertainty on exact position and strength of anything tracking our way. Jet stream stays mainly to the south, thus supporting low pressure activity in the Gulf, before a more amplified wave develops next week. 850 mb temps cool down but snow levels are just high enough to keep the south mostly rain, central areas a mix, and only the far north with precip as mostly snow. Guidance has low probabilities for much accumulation. Wind wise, periods of gales for the gulf, small craft inner channels and then potential storm for next week.

As the Wednesday gale force front moves inland Thursday will have diminishing precip and winds. The next system moves in from the west along the southern AK Gulf with multiple lows centers fujiwharaing in the SE Gulf, which makes tracking them a bit difficult. If the track keeps south may see a break for the northern panhandle Saturday, but kept with ensembles and thus more chance PoP for that time. Sunday back to SE AK fall with more precip and gales.

The next big system potential is for Monday. We're looking at possible heavy rain and near storm force winds for the gulf, if the latest operational GFS is correct. But with the IVT track, heavy rain might keep just south of us. Stay tuned as we get more information and track model consensus.

AVIATION
VFR ceiling for the most part this morning with a few scattered MVFR and IFR conditions from patchy fog, pockets of lower clouds from Hoonah to Dixon Entrance. The fog and lower clouds should be lifting in the morning which should bring conditions back to VFR. However, an incoming front approaches the coast spreading rain into the panhandle Wednesday afternoon and evening. Ceilings should lower again as the rain or snow becomes more prevalent with the front. Wind shear will be added as a hazard for the coastal communities and some of the inner channels communities as the low level jet moving to the coastline increasing the wind shear near the surface for air traffic especially by afternoon.

MARINE
Marine concerns remain a gale force (35+ knots) front approaching from the west that will bring a general E to SE wind at 25 to 40 knots to the eastern gulf. The other concern is the North 15 to 20 knot winds in Lynn Canal which will decrease through the morning before switching to the south with the frontal passage.

Elevated winds and waves in the gulf will last into Wednesday night. The inner channels will see winds increase in relation to the frontal passage, which is still expected to happen Wednesday afternoon into evening with speed reaching 20 to 25 knots.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ319.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641>644-652-661>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-031>036-053-651.

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Cape Ommaney
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Wed -- 01:59 AM AKST     9.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:16 AM AKST     4.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:03 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:28 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:03 PM AKST     11.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:30 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:40 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:06 PM AKST     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Ommaney, Alaska, Tide feet

Port Alexander
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Wed -- 02:10 AM AKST     10.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:17 AM AKST     4.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:03 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:29 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:13 PM AKST     12.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:29 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:39 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:07 PM AKST     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Alexander, Baranof Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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