Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Alexander, AK

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A front is moving over the panhandle, bringing primarily rain showers first, before mixing in snow overnight.

- Tuesday is expected to see a clearing from north to south, with increased chances of sun.

SHORT TERM
A low pressure system enhanced by an upper level trough with associated cold air from western Alaska will be the primary driver of weather for the panhandle through tomorrow. The warm occluded front currently over the panhandle is keeping precipitation type primarily rain, with the exception of the NE gulf coast. With the cold air from western Alaska wrapping around the NW quadrant and descending, increasing lapse rates and cold air advection look to increase going into overnight. This conditionally unstable profile well below freezing, with associated moist profile up to 700-600 mb, may result in rain/snow showers on western to southwestern facing mountains, including places like Sitka. For any snow that does develop, ground temperatures are expected to hinder any accumulations, but could be hazardous due to low visibilities. Highest likelihood of any good rain/snow shower development is the southern half of the panhandle. It is possible to see a few lightning strikes out of this, but at this point, chances are below what is comfortable to put into the official forecast at this time.

LONG TERM
The low complex that is dominating the weather pattern in the short term is expected to move SE and be over the southern panhandle by mid week. By late Tuesday/early Wednesday the low will begin to weaken and continue drifting south. As this occurs the northern half of the panhandle as well as the northeast Gulf Coast will get a break from precipitation starting later Tuesday. The southern portions of the area are expected to remain in a showery regime until later Wednesday. With overnight temperatures being in the mid to upper 20s precipitation during the overnight/morning hours could be a rain/snow mix with snow accumulations being minimal if at all.

As this low moves out of the area a ridge of high pressure is expected to move over the Gulf of Alaska. Models are well aligned with the amplitude and placement of the ridge remaining over the southern portion of the gulf during the later half of the week.
This will result in a weak trough setting up along the North and Eastern Gulf Coast, yielding showery conditions for the area. None of the showers are expected to be particularly impactful.

AVIATION
/Until 06Z Tuesday/...As far as CIGs & VISs are concerned, conditions mainly in the MVFR flight category are expected as an area over low pressure slides southeastward through the eastern Gulf, near the coast of the Panhandle through the 24-hour TAF period. Flight conditions, at times, may dip down into the IFR category periodically mainly for tonight & mainly for portions of the northern half of the Panhandle. Snow may mix-in with the rain or periodic changeovers to snow may occur for the Icy Strait corridor & northward, which will impact VISs.
Generally south to southeasterly SFC winds look to be a bit breezy/gusty for portions of the Panhandle up until mid-morning with the highest magnitudes in the extreme northeastern Panhandle, including PAGY & PAHN. LLWS values look to not be too much of a concern through th period.

MARINE
Outside Waters: A low in the northern gulf is generating fresh to strong westerly to southwesterly breezes for the eastern gulf through tonight. Expecting to see this low shift south and weaken through Monday night. Long, wide fetches with consistent westerly winds look to build seas from 5 ft up to 10-13 ft at 9 to 10 seconds before diminishing slowing Monday night.

Inside Waters: Looking to see a gradual increase in winds, as a front associated with the northern gulf low continues to work its way over the panhandle. Similar to the outside waters, expecting to see fresh to strong south to southwesterly breezes for Frederick Sound, Sumner Strait, Southern Chatham Strait, and SW-NE channels in Clarence such as Behm Canal. As the low shifts southward, expecting to see a transition of winds from south/southwesterly to more southeasterly. Largest uncertainty is when Lynn Canal will diminish from the 20 knots it is currently experiencing. Current forecast has around 9 AM Monday morning, but this could be as late as 3 PM.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-641>644-651-661>664-671-672.