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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 337 Am Akdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Today..Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tonight..E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
Sun night..NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 231256 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 456 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SHORT TERM
A surface low in the northern gulf will continue to weaken through the afternoon helping to diminish winds across the region. Rain coverage/intensity will also be decreasing for the majority of the northern region, with better chances for rain in the southern Panhandle. Primary forecast challenge in the short term is wind direction through Lynn Canal. While some high resolution guidance continues to showcase southerly winds, have opted for light northerly winds in the afternoon based off the weak surface pressure gradient.

Confidence is lowering for any impactful fog development in the area overnight Saturday due to the approaching storm from the south. More details below.

LONG TERM
Sunday through Friday/...For the start of the mid range an advancing gale force low from the N Pacific moves off the Haida Gwaii coast. Question is still its eventual track, either remaining off Haida Gwaii or tracking northward over the AK Gulf.
For Sunday initial wave pushing up from the south moves first bands of precip in then pulls west. Winds over the SE Gulf pick up to at least max small craft with some gale force bands. This is followed by the main low center Monday which mainly hits British Columbia. For Sunday while fair agreement on continued showers over the south and eastern coast some indications that this wave will stay further east before the eventual westward track keeping everyone under rain showers. For the main system the two solutions are the low will stay off the Haida Gwaii coast through mid week keeping some rain over the south and increased winds for the SE Gulf. The alternate solution is the low tracks northward over the panhandle while weakening resulting in rain for the entire panhandle again but a diminished Gulf wind forecast. Ensembles have been depicting the low eventually moving northward mid week while weakening with greater spread among operational models.
Getting better agreement with latest runs that the low remains off of Haida Gwaii until Tuesday. Still a typical fall pattern with mild temps, on and off days of rain, and breezy winds at times.
However no significant rainfall or winds for SE AK expected through the long range.

AVIATION
Improving conditions across the panhandle through the day, as MVFR and VFR conditions are anticipated to be prevalent in most areas after sunrise. Rain showers will result in some dips in ceilings and visibility at times across the panhandle, especially the S half of the area. Am not anticipating any long lasting deterioration of conditions until Saturday evening when the southern half of the panhandle will experience lowering ceilings and reduced visibilities - entering MVFR and IFR in many places - as another system begins to move in. A few areas of fog are possible Saturday night, especially in the northern half of the panhandle. More widespread deterioration of conditions will occur through Sunday as the system moves up N through the panhandle.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641-642-661>663.

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Anchor Point
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Sat -- 03:11 AM AKDT     3.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:31 AM AKDT     13.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:33 PM AKDT     8.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:28 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:48 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:37 PM AKDT     15.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:44 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Anchor Point, Alaska, Tide feet

Wrangell Narrows (off Petersburg)
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Sat -- 02:10 AM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:49 AM AKDT     2.15 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:38 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:40 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:18 AM AKDT     -1.30 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:20 PM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:54 PM AKDT     2.03 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:30 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:48 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:22 PM AKDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:42 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:54 PM AKDT     -2.72 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wrangell Narrows (off Petersburg), Alaska Current, knots

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