Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kupreanof, AK

AVIATION
/Until 00Z Tuesday/...Primarily VFR conditions across the Panhandle today. Some periodic exceptions may be in the northern quarter of the Panhandle where some areas of HZ/FU have been reported from easterly winds blowing in FU from Canadian wildfires, which may bring VISs down to the upper MVFR flight category at times. Some isolated-to-scattered showers are possible for the for northern areas of the Panhandle this afternoon from some diminishing easterly wave activity. For the southern Panhandle, a weather system pushes in from the south, bringing more appreciable rainfall & CIGs & VISs down to well within the MVFR flight category from this evening through the end of the 24-hour TAF period. The northern Panhandle will see a break in the precipitation & some higher CIGs & VISs after any remaining easterly wave showers depart & before the aforementioned approaching weather system moves in. LLWS centered up at around 2 kft of between 25 & 35 kt out of a southeasterly direction is possible starting around 14Z Monday. Note: LLWS has been added in the Juneau area TAF this afternoon due to a combination of a disurbance moving over the area & thermals due to appreciable afternoon heating taking place.

MARINE

Outer Waters: The first, less impactful solution, outlined in the short term, will see the low shoot out to the gulf waters, limiting wind speeds in both the outer waters and inside waters.
Strongest wind speeds near the low center maximize around a strong breeze in the afternoon through early evening time frame.
Elsewhere along the coast from Sitka southward, widespread fresh to strong breezes (17-27 knots) will persist from the afternoon through midnight.

For the more impactful system, around a 30% chance of occurrence, wind speeds along the coast will be enhanced by higher pressure along the coast mountains, increasing wind speeds to near gale to gale force. Additionally, cold air wrapping around the developing system will descend to the surface, resulting in a strong, gusty jet with wind gusts as high as 45 knots. Regardless of either solution, wave heights do not look to exceed 10 ft due to lack of sufficient fetch length and time for more developed seas.

Inside waters: Focusing more on the impactful system as this solution will impact the inner waters more. Strong breezes coming in from Dixon Entrance will move up Clarence Strait and into Sumner Strait. As the low moves northward near Sitka, fresh to strong breezes in Peril Strait and near Five Finger will develop and persist for at least 6 hours. Ahead of both the warm front and cold front, winds in the central & northern panhandle will switch to northerlies to up to a moderate breeze before switching to southerly. Lynn Canal in particular is expected to see up to a fresh breeze southerly wind accompanying the cold front Monday evening.

As it stands, there is a blend of both the more impactful system in both the outside and inside waters forecast, with wind speeds slightly muted in the inside waters. As the more likely solution is less impactful, consider these wind speeds as the upper end of what is expected, unless confidence increases on the more impactful system.



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641-642-661>663.