Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Point Baker, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 200545 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 945 PM AKDT Mon May 19 2025

SHORT TERM
The decaying low currently near Haida Gwaii looks to devolve into an open wave trough by Tuesday afternoon, which will receive reinforcement from thermal troughing over BC through midweek. This means afternoon showers remain a possibility, particularly for the central and southern panhandle, but could extend up into the Juneau area. Though like Sunday, these should be relatively light and sparse. Otherwise across the panhandle temperatures will remain seasonably warm and, dodging any showers, will remain relatively dry. Afternoon sea breezes should become more prevalent for a majority of the panhandle with diminishing cloud cover, but otherwise no significant wind concerns on the horizon.

Ultimately not many changes from the ongoing forecast with the exception of increasing PoPs further north; however, likelihoods are still only around a chance.

LONG TERM
Looking towards midweek, there is still some uncertainty with a Bering low that is expected to enter the western gulf Wednesday. Models have continued to pull back and weaken the system, which means continued benign weather for the panhandle through the work week. However, on Saturday, a fresh injection of cold, arctic air reignites the aforementioned trough.
Several solutions fall out of ensemble guidance, but can generally be boiled down into a bimodal pattern. The first, less likely solution is the wetter pattern, where colder air amplifies the trough, causing negatively tilted shortwaves to move towards the panhandle. With this pattern, it is much more likely to see rain totals greater than one inch in 24 hours, roughly 80% or greater for the entire panhandle.

The second solution is a more progressive trough, digging further south and directing a majority of the moisture to the southern panhandle and Haida Gwaii. At this time, the likelihood of this solution is around 70%, with drier weather for the central and northern panhandle and lesser totals for the southern panhandle.
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