Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Baker, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 181502 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 602 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

SHORT TERM. /Through Sunday night/ The short range forecast today is a time of change across the panhandle as we transition away from cold outflow winds to warmer and wetter conditions. At the moment outflow winds still rage across the northern half of the panhandle. Lynn Canal, Skagway, Taku Inlet, and Downtown Juneau and Douglas are feeling the brunt of it. Strong wind headlines (for Haines and Skagway) and a high wind warning (for downtown Juneau and Douglas remain up and are expected to remain up through the day. Wind chills at White Pass are also still very cold with -43 being the most recent wind chill reading there. Wind Chill advisory remains up there as well.

These outflow winds will gradually diminish this afternoon into Sun as southerly flow slowly pushes the cold air out of the area. Gusts to 40 mph or greater should shut off by early Sunday. Same with any gale force winds in the inner channels. The wind chill advisory for White Pass should finally die as well (after being in effect either as an advisory or warning for nearly a week) Sun morning as temperatures warm and winds diminish enough that wind chills warm above -30.

Now focus shifts from the outflow winds and cold temperatures to warmer weather and snow. Two low centers and its associated front are currently entering the SE Gulf and southern panhandle at the moment. Snow has already started from Sumner Strait southward with maybe an inch or two of accumulation in Ketchikan based on webcam images. This is a little earlier then what was originally thought so forecast was adjusted accordingly. A winter weather advisory is up for zone 28 (Ketchikan and Metlakatla) and now includes zone 27 (Hydaburg, Craig, and Klawock) until 6 AM Sunday for around 4 to 8 inches of snow over the next 24 hours. The precip will gradually spread northward as the outflow starts to weaken. The northern panhandle will likely start to see some precip by late tonight at the latest. Not expecting as much accumulation as the southern panhandle, but a few additional inches of snow is not out of the question Sat night into Sunday night. The rest of the short range features a gradual warm up with continued chance to likely precip. Areas across the south will likely warm up enough for a switch over to rain by sun afternoon.

Main changes were refining snow amounts and winds. Favored Gfs and Nam for updates.

LONG TERM. /Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday/ Long term forecast: strikingly different than that seen during the short range. To put it mildly the significant pattern change starting this weekend continues through next week and models just can't seem to get a handle on it. So let's start with what there is higher confidence in and go from there: Broad mid level low situated across the Arctic Ocean with active storm track moving south of the Aleutians and into the AK Gulf through the week. At the surface a series of low pressure systems will track eastward south of the Aleutians and toward the Gulf of Alaska, as part of the active North Pacific storm track. Later in the week some indication of another area of high pressure developing over the western of central AK Gulf. NAEFS ensembles show positive anomalies for temperatures through the week (the storm systems) with colder temps possibly next weekend (the area of high pressure) but otherwise not getting a clear signal. What there is low confidence in: Where these mid level waves track exactly, let alone the track of surface features, and thus most practical weather details. What does this mean for the forecast? Expect change. Change in weather, change in model solutions, and change in the final forecast. Leaned toward WPC/National Blend as base models but overall decided to limit changes to grids. For now.

Stayed with the general trend of warmer temperatures leading to a transition to rain or at least mixed precip for the southern and central panhandle along with a southerly wind shift through mid week. Northern locations still expected to be closer to freezing and more likely stay as snow. Latest operational models show fronts moving over the panhandle Monday onward to be fairly weak with: mild but above normal temps, no significant QPF, low snow totals, and relative seasonable winds. Some better model agreement for Monday so did made an adjustment to GFS/NAM. As the week progresses ECMWF stands out as the early outlier moving surface low much further north than GFS or Canadian. By the end of the week pick a model and you get a different solution on timing and track of the short waves resulting in large spread in pop, temps, you name it.

Regardless of timing of these waves and resulting precip the transition to or mix with rain on existing snow pack (especially packed snow) will result in icy conditions.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ027-028. High Wind Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ025. Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ019. Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ018. Wind Chill Advisory until 6 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ018. MARINE . Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013-031. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012. Storm Warning for PKZ012-013. Gale Warning for PKZ022-035-041>043-051. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031>034-052.



EAL/PRB

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK	43 mi	48 min	NNW 28 G 31	28°F			999.4 hPa (-1.9)
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK	50 mi	26 min	NE 9.9 G 38	31°F			995.3 hPa	29°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK	56 mi	54 min		27°F	33°F		996.9 hPa

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAFE

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Tide / Current Tables for Beck Island, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Monte Carlo Island, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for (18,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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