Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Baker, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 170005 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 305 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

SHORT TERM. /Through Monday night/The short term forecast remains much of the same. We are on the second half of the most recent storm force front with another (weaker) front expected Sunday. Then a strong low will move into the gulf. This will bring more storm force winds to the coast and high winds over parts of the northern Panhandle late Sunday night into Monday.

The storm force winds along the coast from today will calm down tonight. That being said, strong winds are still expected in open waters. So, gale warnings come to end this evening but small craft advisories last through the night.

Then tomorrow's front will keep the small crafts in place over coastal waters and should kick the winds up in Lynn Canal so a small craft advisory will go into effect Sunday morning.

Winds weaken late Sunday and Sunday night but they'll pick right back up as that strong low moves into the gulf and pushes a strong weather front into the panhandle early in the work week. By Monday morning, open water winds will be around 40 to 50 knots with winds in the inner channels getting up to 35 knots in the afternoon.

Because of Monday's front, a High Wind Watch will be issued for the northeast and east gulf coast and for parts of the central inner channels due to possible high winds. This will be in effect beginning Monday morning.

The parade of fronts and lows will keep a general south to southwest flow over the panhandle so temps should stay above normal with highs in the upper 30s to 40s and lows mostly in the mid to upper 30s.

And this parade of fronts and lows will keep at least a chance of precip in place over the panhandle through Monday night. But expected temps should support rain for most of the panhandle.

That being said, there is a small area where temperatures could cool down enough to support snow. So because of this, a Winter Storm Watch will be issued for the far northeastern corner of the northern inner channel. This will be in effect beginning Monday morning.

Forecaster confidence in this forecast has been growing. The High Wind forecast confidence is highest for Yakutat with moderate to average forecast confidence for the rest. The Winter Storm forecast confidence is moderate.

LONG TERM. /Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday/ Pattern change in the works as we head through next week. Initially we will still be stuck in an active SW flow pattern aloft with at least one more storm system moving through the area in the first part of the long range. That gradually changes mid week into late week as more ridging begins to show up over most of the Gulf of Alaska and Central Alaska. However, this ridging is not strong enough to be a blocking pattern as at least one storm will be trying to push through the ridge and into the panhandle next weekend. Depiction of the SW flow and the initial ridge mid next week has fairly average forecast confidence, but that confidence falls to low toward late week and next weekend as long range guidance has trouble figuring out how strong system trying to break through the ridge will play out and if it will make the panhandle or not.

At the surface, the first part of the long range remains fairly active with a wet storm-force front moving through the area Mon into Mon night. IVT and PW anomalies continue to indicate a fairly decent atmospheric river connection with this front. Fortunately, the front does not linger over the area very long so we are looking at around 1 to 3 inches of QPF over any given area through Mon night right now. Still there will be periods of moderate to even heavy rain at times for most of the panhandle. Most areas will be warm enough for rain, but the Haines and Klondike highways may see some snow (possibly several inches worth near White Pass). Winds will be the other concern, but with the parent low so far W, the front will be weakening as it moves E. Storm force winds are expected for the northern gulf while gales (Marine areas) and gusty winds 40 to 55 mph (land areas) are expected elsewhere.

The forecast quiets down for Tues onward as the ridging aloft begins to develop. Some fairly weak system will still try to advance on the panhandle through the period, but they do not have the strength that previous systems have had. There is also more forecast uncertainty showing up from Wed onward as guidance tries to figure out what to do with the developing ridge. Overall trends point toward a drier forecast with the possibility of some cold air working southeastward Thu into Fri. The cold air is somewhat uncertain as the Canadian is being rather aggressive with it while the ECMWF is not as aggressive and the GFS is has it barely there at all. We will continue to monitor how this pattern change develops.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ025>028. High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for AKZ017-022-023-025. Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for AKZ018. MARINE . Storm Warning for PKZ043-051-052. Gale Warning for PKZ036-041-042. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-033>035-053.



GJS/EAL

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK	43 mi	51 min	SE 19 G 20	45°F			1007.3 hPa (+3.0)
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK	50 mi	89 min	SSW 17 G 20	46°F			1008.3 hPa	42°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK	56 mi	57 min	S 7 G 17	46°F	45°F		1007.8 hPa

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Kake - Kake Airport, AK	25 mi	55 min	E 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	43°F	41°F	93%	1009.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAFE

Wind History from AFE (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Beck Island, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Monte Carlo Island, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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