Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Point Baker, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:26AMSunset 3:49PM Saturday January 18, 2020 2:47 PM AKST (23:47 UTC) Moonrise 2:45AMMoonset 12:41PM Illumination 37% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 342 Am Akst Sat Jan 18 2020
.small craft advisory through this evening...
Today..NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior passes. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray early in the morning. Snow in the afternoon.
Tonight..NE wind 25 kt diminishing late. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior passes in the evening. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
Sun..E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft. Snow in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
Mon..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Baker, AK
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location: 56.65, -133.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 181502 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 602 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

SHORT TERM. /Through Sunday night/ The short range forecast today is a time of change across the panhandle as we transition away from cold outflow winds to warmer and wetter conditions. At the moment outflow winds still rage across the northern half of the panhandle. Lynn Canal, Skagway, Taku Inlet, and Downtown Juneau and Douglas are feeling the brunt of it. Strong wind headlines (for Haines and Skagway) and a high wind warning (for downtown Juneau and Douglas remain up and are expected to remain up through the day. Wind chills at White Pass are also still very cold with -43 being the most recent wind chill reading there. Wind Chill advisory remains up there as well.

These outflow winds will gradually diminish this afternoon into Sun as southerly flow slowly pushes the cold air out of the area. Gusts to 40 mph or greater should shut off by early Sunday. Same with any gale force winds in the inner channels. The wind chill advisory for White Pass should finally die as well (after being in effect either as an advisory or warning for nearly a week) Sun morning as temperatures warm and winds diminish enough that wind chills warm above -30.

Now focus shifts from the outflow winds and cold temperatures to warmer weather and snow. Two low centers and its associated front are currently entering the SE Gulf and southern panhandle at the moment. Snow has already started from Sumner Strait southward with maybe an inch or two of accumulation in Ketchikan based on webcam images. This is a little earlier then what was originally thought so forecast was adjusted accordingly. A winter weather advisory is up for zone 28 (Ketchikan and Metlakatla) and now includes zone 27 (Hydaburg, Craig, and Klawock) until 6 AM Sunday for around 4 to 8 inches of snow over the next 24 hours. The precip will gradually spread northward as the outflow starts to weaken. The northern panhandle will likely start to see some precip by late tonight at the latest. Not expecting as much accumulation as the southern panhandle, but a few additional inches of snow is not out of the question Sat night into Sunday night. The rest of the short range features a gradual warm up with continued chance to likely precip. Areas across the south will likely warm up enough for a switch over to rain by sun afternoon.

Main changes were refining snow amounts and winds. Favored Gfs and Nam for updates.

LONG TERM. /Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday/ Long term forecast: strikingly different than that seen during the short range. To put it mildly the significant pattern change starting this weekend continues through next week and models just can't seem to get a handle on it. So let's start with what there is higher confidence in and go from there: Broad mid level low situated across the Arctic Ocean with active storm track moving south of the Aleutians and into the AK Gulf through the week. At the surface a series of low pressure systems will track eastward south of the Aleutians and toward the Gulf of Alaska, as part of the active North Pacific storm track. Later in the week some indication of another area of high pressure developing over the western of central AK Gulf. NAEFS ensembles show positive anomalies for temperatures through the week (the storm systems) with colder temps possibly next weekend (the area of high pressure) but otherwise not getting a clear signal. What there is low confidence in: Where these mid level waves track exactly, let alone the track of surface features, and thus most practical weather details. What does this mean for the forecast? Expect change. Change in weather, change in model solutions, and change in the final forecast. Leaned toward WPC/National Blend as base models but overall decided to limit changes to grids. For now.

Stayed with the general trend of warmer temperatures leading to a transition to rain or at least mixed precip for the southern and central panhandle along with a southerly wind shift through mid week. Northern locations still expected to be closer to freezing and more likely stay as snow. Latest operational models show fronts moving over the panhandle Monday onward to be fairly weak with: mild but above normal temps, no significant QPF, low snow totals, and relative seasonable winds. Some better model agreement for Monday so did made an adjustment to GFS/NAM. As the week progresses ECMWF stands out as the early outlier moving surface low much further north than GFS or Canadian. By the end of the week pick a model and you get a different solution on timing and track of the short waves resulting in large spread in pop, temps, you name it.

Regardless of timing of these waves and resulting precip the transition to or mix with rain on existing snow pack (especially packed snow) will result in icy conditions.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ027-028. High Wind Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ025. Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ019. Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ018. Wind Chill Advisory until 6 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ018. MARINE . Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013-031. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012. Storm Warning for PKZ012-013. Gale Warning for PKZ022-035-041>043-051. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031>034-052.



EAL/PRB

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 43 mi48 min NNW 28 G 31 28°F 999.4 hPa (-1.9)
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 50 mi26 min NE 9.9 G 38 31°F 995.3 hPa29°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 56 mi54 min 27°F 33°F996.9 hPa

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAFE

Wind History from AFE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------------------------N12
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1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Beck Island, Alaska
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Beck Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:40 AM AKST     2.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:45 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:49 AM AKST     13.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:16 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:41 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:52 PM AKST     2.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:54 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:43 PM AKST     10.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.83.96.28.911.513.313.81311.28.86.34.12.72.43.14.76.88.71010.29.68.46.8

Tide / Current Tables for Monte Carlo Island, Alaska
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Monte Carlo Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:12 AM AKST     2.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:45 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:43 AM AKST     12.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:15 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:41 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:24 PM AKST     2.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:55 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:37 PM AKST     9.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.14.46.58.91112.312.511.79.87.55.23.42.42.53.44.96.688.998.47.25.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.