Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Baker, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 270815 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1115 PM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

UPDATE. Offshore winds with some cold air preservation has Yakutat cooler with more efficient overrunning overnight. Melted precipitation has us concerned enough to issue a winter weather advisory through 18Z Saturday. With some preparatory cooling ahead of the system in Ketchikan, we also lowered temperatures overnight for Ketchikan and started precip with accumulating snow of 1 to 2 inches before 18Z Saturday as well, again like Yakutat before a transition to rain.

PREV DISCUSSION. ISSUED AT . 304 PM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

SHORT TERM . The short lull and mostly clear skies that we have enjoyed, today, over the Panhandle will come to an end tonight. The next frontal system approaches the area, tonight. It brings with it a copious amount of moisture streaming from Pacific low latitudes. This will bring heavy precipitation on southeast Alaska over the weekend. Coastal areas and central and southern Panhandle locations can expect to see anywhere between 1.5 and 3 inches of heavy liquid equivalent precipitation from this event. Typically mountain rain shadowed areas around Haines and Skagway and along the haines and Klondike border highways can expect to receive appreciably less precipitation. This can be classified as an atmospheric river event with its long deep moisture fetch and GFS model IVT values of around 700 approaching the Panhandle. Notably, this value is on average about 40 percent lower than values seen with the atmospheric river setups that were experienced back in the late Fall. These higher values are also focused more toward the southern Panhandle.

Guidance indicates that surface and upper level temperatures will be cold enough for precipitation to start out as snow tonight for many areas in the central and northern Panhandle and areas at higher elevations. A Winter Storm Warning is in Effect for 2 to 8 inches of snow accumulation in the Juneau area from 11PM tonight until 1PM AKST Saturday. Model guidance shows that the precipitation will transition over to heavy rain in most areas as warm air advection moves into the area at the surface and at 850mb as the warm front gradually passes through the Panhandle throughout the day, tomorrow. The typical locations approaching the Canadian borders around the Haines and Klondike Highway areas can expect to receive primarily snow as their surface temperatures will not be able to warm to values as high.

Dominant southwesterly flow will remain over the eastern Gulf and Panhandle through the weekend, delivering the warm air and deep moisture supply through the event.

This frontal system is not a big wind maker as there is not a tight pressure gradient associated with it.

LONG TERM . /Sunday through Friday night/ . An active weather pattern continues into the long term with at multiple systems expected to impact Southeast Alaska through late next week.

The period begins with a low in the NW gulf and a front already impacting Southeast Alaska. Precipitation will be ongoing across the region Sunday morning, transitioning from stratiform rain to showers as onshore flow and cold air advection move in behind the front. Higher snow levels ranging from near 1000 feet in Haines to over 4000 feet across the south will fall through the day Sunday. Increasing instability from CAA and lowering 1000-850mb thicknesses will likely lead to a transition to a rain/snow mix or all snow in some areas by Sunday night. Minor accumulations are possible across the northern half of the Panhandle from the snow showers. A very brief break in the precipitation is expected Monday morning before the next system approaches.

Models and ensembles continue the active weather pattern into early next week as there is good agreement another system will move into the northern gulf Monday afternoon into Tuesday, swinging another front into the Panhandle. Latest guidance has backed off on the atmospheric river potential with this system; however rainfall amounts upwards of an inch are still possible Monday evening through Tuesday evening. Southerly flow ahead of the front is expected to warm surface temperatures enough for P-type to be mainly rain. Will have to watch Upper Lynn Canal and the highways for the potential for more snow though.

Towards mid week, guidance is in good agreement that lower pressure will remain in the gulf with multiple waves/lows rotating into the Panhandle. At this time, there is low confidence regarding the finer details of any one wave; however confidence is high that a wet pattern will persist into mid to late next week. Used a blend of the GFS/Euro for the weekend and the start of next week; transitioning to mainly WPC for days 5 through 8.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ025. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ017. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031>036-041>043-051-052.



JWA/JLC/CM

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK	43 mi	80 min	SE 17 G 19	36°F			1015.1 hPa (-2.3)
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK	50 mi	58 min	WSW 7 G 8	40°F			1016.1 hPa	37°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK	56 mi	50 min	SSW 7 G 15	40°F	43°F		1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Kake - Kake Airport, AK	25 mi	24 min	E 8	8.00 mi	Light Rain	33°F	31°F	92%	1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAFE

Wind History from AFE (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Beck Island, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Monte Carlo Island, Alaska

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Weather Map

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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