Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Baker, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 122153 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 153 PM AKDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SHORT TERM. Ridge of high pressure moved onshore and is expected to stall along the coastal range Sunday night. Scattered rain showers, mainly under a wave riding north over the ridge, will diminish through the evening, just in time for another system to move in with more rain. For now kept fog out of the forecast due to expectation of lingering cloud cover, however with the diminishing showers and a few breaks could see more radiational fog development tonight. An eastward tracking low south of the Aleutians will join and be invigorated by an upper level low moving from near Norton Sound south towards Kodiak Island. The surface low will deepen to near 1000 mb as it moves into the northern gulf. The rain associated with this low/front will spread into the area Monday and Monday night. A second wave is expected to develop on the trailing cold front and then move to the southern half of the panhandle by Tuesday. The surface low will begin to weaken and dissipate Tuesday night. Still some timing differences on the front, with NAM being the fastest solution.

Atmospheric river will clip the southern portion of the panhandle with the second wave. Long fetch of moisture from connection to the mid tropics advancing across the north Pacific will bring in periods of heavy rain. The forecast rainfall numbers have so far remained the same with roughly 1.0 to 2.5 inches into Tuesday night.

Lynn Canal winds bumped to small craft Sunday evening. Coastal water winds under the advancing front will increase to 30 to 35 kt, possibly 40 kt by Monday evening. Strongest winds will be over the NE Gulf. Southern inner channel winds will increase with the second wave by early Tuesday morning.

With the timing differences in the front limited forecast changes. Did increase winds with some GFS/GEM and nudged PoP to SREF for bit move coverage. Above average confidence in the rain/breezy forecast but still lower confidence on exact timing.

LONG TERM. /Tuesday through next Saturday/ As of 8pm Saturday. By Tuesday morning the front discussed in the short term period should be causing widespread rain over majority of the panhandle. This portion of the forecast has the highest confidence in a wet/cloudy day. Despite models having different timing/placement of the parent low all week, they agree that most of the day will see rain. The differences in low placement still have an affect on wind directions however. If the low is a bit further south, then winds through some of the northern inner channels will turn out of the north. Have increased wind speeds with the front to 25kt in a larger swath and out of Cross Sound and up Clarence Strait. Gusty winds are also likely in places like Ketchikan and portions of POW.

The low will weaken to a trough late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, but models differ on whether that will be over the gulf or if it will continue east over the south/central panhandle. Either way, expect rain to become more intermittent on Wednesday than Tuesday. Beyond Wednesday is less certain. The ECMWF has consistently shown a ridge building over the gulf Thursday with reduced chance of precip. The official forecast also shows that idea, but other models bring a new low over the southern half of the area, so things could change. As of now, there is agreement on a larger system approaching from the SW next Saturday.

The GFS continues to be the outlier with placement of the Tuesday low and has a much more active pattern than other models beyond that timeframe. WPC noted this as well and used more of the 12z ECMWF and I followed suit. Forecast confidence decreases for the second half of the week due to model spread.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-042-043-051.



PRB/Ferrin

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK	43 mi	25 min	ESE 1.9 G 2.9	53°F			1018.7 hPa (+0.6)
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK	50 mi	63 min	WNW 6 G 6	63°F			1019.8 hPa	51°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK	56 mi	55 min	E 1.9 G 5.1	57°F			1019.7 hPa

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Kake - Kake Airport, AK	25 mi	29 min	SSW 5	10.00 mi	Overcast	62°F	51°F	67%	1020.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAFE

Wind History from AFE (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Beck Island, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Monte Carlo Island, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for (19,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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