Saturday, February27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Point Baker, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 5:26PM Saturday February 27, 2021 3:19 AM AKST (12:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:03PMMoonset 8:40AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 955 Pm Akst Fri Feb 26 2021 Updated
.small craft advisory Saturday...
Rest of tonight..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
Sat..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
Sat night..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Sun..S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun night..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Baker, AK
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location: 56.65, -133.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 270815 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1115 PM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

UPDATE. Offshore winds with some cold air preservation has Yakutat cooler with more efficient overrunning overnight. Melted precipitation has us concerned enough to issue a winter weather advisory through 18Z Saturday. With some preparatory cooling ahead of the system in Ketchikan, we also lowered temperatures overnight for Ketchikan and started precip with accumulating snow of 1 to 2 inches before 18Z Saturday as well, again like Yakutat before a transition to rain.

PREV DISCUSSION. ISSUED AT . 304 PM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

SHORT TERM . The short lull and mostly clear skies that we have enjoyed, today, over the Panhandle will come to an end tonight. The next frontal system approaches the area, tonight. It brings with it a copious amount of moisture streaming from Pacific low latitudes. This will bring heavy precipitation on southeast Alaska over the weekend. Coastal areas and central and southern Panhandle locations can expect to see anywhere between 1.5 and 3 inches of heavy liquid equivalent precipitation from this event. Typically mountain rain shadowed areas around Haines and Skagway and along the haines and Klondike border highways can expect to receive appreciably less precipitation. This can be classified as an atmospheric river event with its long deep moisture fetch and GFS model IVT values of around 700 approaching the Panhandle. Notably, this value is on average about 40 percent lower than values seen with the atmospheric river setups that were experienced back in the late Fall. These higher values are also focused more toward the southern Panhandle.

Guidance indicates that surface and upper level temperatures will be cold enough for precipitation to start out as snow tonight for many areas in the central and northern Panhandle and areas at higher elevations. A Winter Storm Warning is in Effect for 2 to 8 inches of snow accumulation in the Juneau area from 11PM tonight until 1PM AKST Saturday. Model guidance shows that the precipitation will transition over to heavy rain in most areas as warm air advection moves into the area at the surface and at 850mb as the warm front gradually passes through the Panhandle throughout the day, tomorrow. The typical locations approaching the Canadian borders around the Haines and Klondike Highway areas can expect to receive primarily snow as their surface temperatures will not be able to warm to values as high.

Dominant southwesterly flow will remain over the eastern Gulf and Panhandle through the weekend, delivering the warm air and deep moisture supply through the event.

This frontal system is not a big wind maker as there is not a tight pressure gradient associated with it.

LONG TERM . /Sunday through Friday night/ . An active weather pattern continues into the long term with at multiple systems expected to impact Southeast Alaska through late next week.

The period begins with a low in the NW gulf and a front already impacting Southeast Alaska. Precipitation will be ongoing across the region Sunday morning, transitioning from stratiform rain to showers as onshore flow and cold air advection move in behind the front. Higher snow levels ranging from near 1000 feet in Haines to over 4000 feet across the south will fall through the day Sunday. Increasing instability from CAA and lowering 1000-850mb thicknesses will likely lead to a transition to a rain/snow mix or all snow in some areas by Sunday night. Minor accumulations are possible across the northern half of the Panhandle from the snow showers. A very brief break in the precipitation is expected Monday morning before the next system approaches.

Models and ensembles continue the active weather pattern into early next week as there is good agreement another system will move into the northern gulf Monday afternoon into Tuesday, swinging another front into the Panhandle. Latest guidance has backed off on the atmospheric river potential with this system; however rainfall amounts upwards of an inch are still possible Monday evening through Tuesday evening. Southerly flow ahead of the front is expected to warm surface temperatures enough for P-type to be mainly rain. Will have to watch Upper Lynn Canal and the highways for the potential for more snow though.

Towards mid week, guidance is in good agreement that lower pressure will remain in the gulf with multiple waves/lows rotating into the Panhandle. At this time, there is low confidence regarding the finer details of any one wave; however confidence is high that a wet pattern will persist into mid to late next week. Used a blend of the GFS/Euro for the weekend and the start of next week; transitioning to mainly WPC for days 5 through 8.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ025. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ017. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031>036-041>043-051-052.



JWA/JLC/CM

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 43 mi80 min SE 17 G 19 36°F 1015.1 hPa (-2.3)
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 50 mi58 min WSW 7 G 8 40°F 1016.1 hPa37°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 56 mi50 min SSW 7 G 15 40°F 43°F1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kake - Kake Airport, AK25 mi24 minE 88.00 miLight Rain33°F31°F92%1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAFE

Wind History from AFE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE5N3NW3NW5NW5NW7--6W83W4CalmNE4NE6E7E6E5E5E6E6E5E8E8
1 day agoNE3--CalmCalmNE3E3E3E3E53W7463NE6NE5NE5NE3CalmE3NE5E4NE3NE5
2 days agoSE8E6E5E8E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Beck Island, Alaska
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Beck Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:56 AM AKST     14.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:51 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:05 AM AKST     1.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:39 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:50 PM AKST     15.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:24 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:02 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:33 PM AKST     -2.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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13.314.313.3117.84.52.11.224.88.612.31515.814.611.77.73.3-0.3-2.4-2.4-0.13.98.6

Tide / Current Tables for Monte Carlo Island, Alaska
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Monte Carlo Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:49 AM AKST     13.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM AKST     1.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:51 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:39 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:44 PM AKST     14.63 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:25 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:03 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:05 PM AKST     -2.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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12.41311.99.46.23.31.51.32.85.58.91214.114.613.1105.81.7-1.4-2.7-1.80.94.88.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.