Sunday, January17, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Point Baker, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:26AMSunset 3:49PM Sunday January 17, 2021 12:50 AM AKST (09:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:36AMMoonset 10:40PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 1020 Pm Akst Sat Jan 16 2021
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt diminishing. Gusts to 40 kt early. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Sun..S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the morning.
Sun night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Mon night..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Tue..S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..W wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Baker, AK
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location: 56.65, -133.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 170005 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 305 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

SHORT TERM. /Through Monday night/The short term forecast remains much of the same. We are on the second half of the most recent storm force front with another (weaker) front expected Sunday. Then a strong low will move into the gulf. This will bring more storm force winds to the coast and high winds over parts of the northern Panhandle late Sunday night into Monday.

The storm force winds along the coast from today will calm down tonight. That being said, strong winds are still expected in open waters. So, gale warnings come to end this evening but small craft advisories last through the night.

Then tomorrow's front will keep the small crafts in place over coastal waters and should kick the winds up in Lynn Canal so a small craft advisory will go into effect Sunday morning.

Winds weaken late Sunday and Sunday night but they'll pick right back up as that strong low moves into the gulf and pushes a strong weather front into the panhandle early in the work week. By Monday morning, open water winds will be around 40 to 50 knots with winds in the inner channels getting up to 35 knots in the afternoon.

Because of Monday's front, a High Wind Watch will be issued for the northeast and east gulf coast and for parts of the central inner channels due to possible high winds. This will be in effect beginning Monday morning.

The parade of fronts and lows will keep a general south to southwest flow over the panhandle so temps should stay above normal with highs in the upper 30s to 40s and lows mostly in the mid to upper 30s.

And this parade of fronts and lows will keep at least a chance of precip in place over the panhandle through Monday night. But expected temps should support rain for most of the panhandle.

That being said, there is a small area where temperatures could cool down enough to support snow. So because of this, a Winter Storm Watch will be issued for the far northeastern corner of the northern inner channel. This will be in effect beginning Monday morning.

Forecaster confidence in this forecast has been growing. The High Wind forecast confidence is highest for Yakutat with moderate to average forecast confidence for the rest. The Winter Storm forecast confidence is moderate.

LONG TERM. /Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday/ Pattern change in the works as we head through next week. Initially we will still be stuck in an active SW flow pattern aloft with at least one more storm system moving through the area in the first part of the long range. That gradually changes mid week into late week as more ridging begins to show up over most of the Gulf of Alaska and Central Alaska. However, this ridging is not strong enough to be a blocking pattern as at least one storm will be trying to push through the ridge and into the panhandle next weekend. Depiction of the SW flow and the initial ridge mid next week has fairly average forecast confidence, but that confidence falls to low toward late week and next weekend as long range guidance has trouble figuring out how strong system trying to break through the ridge will play out and if it will make the panhandle or not.

At the surface, the first part of the long range remains fairly active with a wet storm-force front moving through the area Mon into Mon night. IVT and PW anomalies continue to indicate a fairly decent atmospheric river connection with this front. Fortunately, the front does not linger over the area very long so we are looking at around 1 to 3 inches of QPF over any given area through Mon night right now. Still there will be periods of moderate to even heavy rain at times for most of the panhandle. Most areas will be warm enough for rain, but the Haines and Klondike highways may see some snow (possibly several inches worth near White Pass). Winds will be the other concern, but with the parent low so far W, the front will be weakening as it moves E. Storm force winds are expected for the northern gulf while gales (Marine areas) and gusty winds 40 to 55 mph (land areas) are expected elsewhere.

The forecast quiets down for Tues onward as the ridging aloft begins to develop. Some fairly weak system will still try to advance on the panhandle through the period, but they do not have the strength that previous systems have had. There is also more forecast uncertainty showing up from Wed onward as guidance tries to figure out what to do with the developing ridge. Overall trends point toward a drier forecast with the possibility of some cold air working southeastward Thu into Fri. The cold air is somewhat uncertain as the Canadian is being rather aggressive with it while the ECMWF is not as aggressive and the GFS is has it barely there at all. We will continue to monitor how this pattern change develops.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ025>028. High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for AKZ017-022-023-025. Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for AKZ018. MARINE . Storm Warning for PKZ043-051-052. Gale Warning for PKZ036-041-042. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-033>035-053.



GJS/EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 43 mi51 min SE 19 G 20 45°F 1007.3 hPa (+3.0)
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 50 mi89 min SSW 17 G 20 46°F 1008.3 hPa42°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 56 mi57 min S 7 G 17 46°F 45°F1007.8 hPa

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kake - Kake Airport, AK25 mi55 minE 710.00 miOvercast43°F41°F93%1009.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAFE

Wind History from AFE (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Beck Island, Alaska
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Beck Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:43 AM AKST     13.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:16 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:52 AM AKST     3.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:35 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:28 PM AKST     13.51 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:54 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:40 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:11 PM AKST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.17.71113.113.512.510.47.85.33.73.24.26.49.311.813.313.311.99.46.43.51.30.30.9

Tide / Current Tables for Monte Carlo Island, Alaska
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Monte Carlo Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:37 AM AKST     12.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:16 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:24 AM AKST     3.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:35 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:22 PM AKST     12.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:55 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:41 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:43 PM AKST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.77.810.512.112.311.196.54.43.33.44.76.89.211.212.21210.57.952.30.70.41.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.