Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kake, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 122245 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 245 PM AKDT Mon May 12 2025

SHORT TERM
/Through Tuesday night/ Mostly quiet across the panhandle today though that is changing as a front moves across the gulf. The mostly clear skies from this morning are becoming overcast with higher level cloud cover this afternoon from the approaching front. It has already started raining in Yakutat as of 10 am as well. Winds are also starting to pick up in the northerly Lynn Canal and Skagway areas as surface pressures fall in Canada ahead of the front. Into tonight, the front is expected to push into the rest of the panhandle spreading rain as it comes.
Most of that rain will fall over the northern half of the panhandle with around a quarter inch expected. The southern half will not see much out of this system as a combination of diffluent flow and the front fighting the ridging currently over the area will weaken the precip enough that that area may only see some light rain with around a few hundredths of an inch for amounts.

Not much expected for winds from this system. Except for the southerly winds in Lynn Canal pre-front, Most of the winds will be with the post-front west winds, particularly at Cross Sound and Cape Decision areas late tonight into Tuesday and even then it will mostly max out at 25 kt for various areas due to terrain enhancement.

Winds and precip are expected to diminish into Tuesday night as ridging rebuilds in the gulf behind the front.


LONG TERM
Aside from a brief break on Wednesday, the active weather pattern continues through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, though another break in the weather may be possible on Sunday.

In the wake of a front on Tuesday, ridging will briefly rebuild, and by Wednesday morning, the panhandle will be enjoying a transient break between systems, though some upper level cloud cover and a few lingering showers are possible. A stronger front from a low in the central to western gulf looks to move in from the SW late Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing widespread breezy and wet conditions. Unlike the previous front, this looks to be a warm front, and will be complete with more robust moisture support, although still nothing too exceptional. The breeziest conditions look to be in the outer coastal and the southern panhandle communities. Not anticipating particularly breezy conditions in the far northern inner channels, as the front looks to weaken as it arrives, and will stall over the central panhandle through the day on Thursday. Operational guidance is falling into line behind the idea of a short wave moving in behind the frontal band late on Thursday and bringing a second round of heavier precipitation along with the potential for some breezy conditions.
Onshore flow then continues through much of Saturday, keeping chances of rain across the area to close out the week.

By the latter half of Saturday, onshore flow will be weakening, and ridging may briefly rebuild on Sunday, resulting in drier weather ahead of another frontal band which will arrive late Sunday into Monday. A vertically stacked low will move over the central gulf through the first half of the week, helping to keep unsettled weather in the area.
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