Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Akhiok, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Two main features impacting Southwest Alaska and the Aleutian Islands this afternoon. The first of these is a decaying low just to the west of Nunivak Island with associated frontal boundary slowly mixing out over Southwest Alaska. Another weak front will rotate around the base of the low and begin to move inland by this evening.
Low clouds, fog, and scattered showers will linger over the area this afternoon...gradually winding down through tomorrow as this next front lifts north. Despite this, temperatures should readily climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s today with slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow afternoon. Showers has changed over to rain at most locations but may see a change back to snow or a rain-snow mix with cooling temperatures tonight with the next frontal passage.
Ridging will quickly build inland tomorrow allowing for a brief break from precipitation.

For the Aleutians... A low will skirt to the south of the Aleutian Chain before lifting towards Bristol Bay by midweek. The front will push through the Aleutians, first through the western Aleutians tonight then through the Central and Eastern Aleutians tomorrow.
More steady precipitation will accompany the front along with gusty small craft to gale-force winds. Gap winds and flow through the bays and passes will also increase as the front lifts through.
Most of the precipitation for the lower elevations of the Aleutians will remain rain, but snow is likely for the Pribs and Southwest Alaska coast until warmer temperatures arrive changing any snow back to rain or a mix. Despite the gusty winds, snow should remain wet enough that blowing snow shouldn't be a big concern. Snow amounts will remain light with gusty winds lingering on the backside of the low.

- PP

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

A broad elongated trough with a NW - SE axis stretching from Siberia to the Gulf of Alaska will keep the eastern Bering Sea and most of western Alaska under low pressure for the start of the long term forecast period. An embedded upper low will swing across the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf of Alaska, bringing moderate to heavy precipitation to the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound on Thursday. The precipitation type will be predominately rain at sea level and heavy snow at higher elevations. This system will weaken and slowly meander towards the southeastern Gulf, allowing for coastal showers to persist through Friday while widespread cloudy conditions will continue for most of the state. A second low will lift up into the Gulf at the end of the weekend, likely bringing another round of increased onshore flow and coastal precipitation. At this time, there is still model disagreement about how far north this system will track, which will primarily impact marine zone wind magnitudes. We will keep an eye on how this progresses in the coming days.

AVIATION

PANC...Periods of rain will develop again overnight which could bring ceilings down to MVFR levels late tonight through Monday morning. The southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds are likely to develop again late this afternoon into the late evening hours, but they are expected to be lower speeds than yesterday.