Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sitka and, AK

SHORT TERM
/Through Sunday night/...The remnants of the previous front has moved out of Yakutat overnight, allowing for light patches of fog to attempt to develop in the early morning hours. The rest of the panhandle is seeing partly cloudy, dry conditions that will persist through Saturday morning before a gale force front moves into the eastern gulf Saturday night.

As the system approaches the panhandle, cloud cover will move inland and PoPs will increase along the northern gulf coast.
Southeast 10 to 15 kt winds in the central gulf Saturday morning will pick up to 25 to 30 kts going into Sunday. Weak outflow winds less than 5 kts over the panhandle will persist through Saturday before turning more onshore and beginning to increase overnight.
By Sunday morning, strong gale force sustained winds in the coastal waters of the northeastern gulf will be pushing inland, primarily from Cape Edgecumbe through Cape Suckling. Storm force gusts are likely along the northernmost gulf coast with the peak of the system midday Sunday. As the system pushes onshore through Sunday afternoon, 25 to 30 kt winds with gale force gusts will increase through the inner channels and in unsheltered coastal communities. Strong winds will steadily decrease overnight into Monday.

This system is expected to bring moderate to heavy precipitation Sunday, with heaviest rates of between 0.4 and 0.6 inches in 6 hours expected Sunday evening. Yakutat will be hit first and the hardest, with around 2.5 inches expected in 24 hours. The rest of the northern and outer coast of the panhandle will see between 1 and 1.5 inches in 24 hours while the southern panhandle will see between half and 1 inch. Cooler overnight temperatures going into Sunday will increase potential for precipitation to start as snow for much of the northern panhandle, turning into a mix through the morning. Snow melt cooling should help to keep temperatures near freezing through the morning, allowing snow accumulations for locations near sea level. Communities along the Icy Strait Corridor may see 1.5 to 2 inches of accumulating snow, beginning to mix with rain toward the latter half of the morning. Up north, Haines and Skagway are expected to see between 2 to 4 inches of accumulating snow, mixing before transitioning over to rain by Sunday evening. Accumulating snow is expected to stick around for the Klondike and Haines Highways into Monday morning before transitioning into rain, with the Klondike Highway set to receive 6 to 10 inches of snow from this system. The Haines Highway will likely see closer 4 inches. A winter storm watch has been issued for the Klondike Highway past mile post 6 through late Sunday night.

LONG TERM
/Monday through Wednesday/... Onshore flow largely continues through Monday night as another wave of precipitation moves through closely behind the remnants of the frontal system from Sunday, before chances begin to diminish across the panhandle Monday night into Tuesday morning. The warming across the panhandle following the Sunday system will keep the area transitioned to rain by Monday, with the exceptions of the highways. The heaviest rain from Sunday will have passed, with much lower QPF amounts expected into Monday, diminishing into Monday morning. The only area that is expected to see snow is along the highways, with more of a mix on the Haines Highway and wet, dense snow along the Klondike Highway Monday, with accumulation of less than an inch Monday. Tuesday continues to show confidence on a low level ridge forming over the panhandle, as well as 500 mb ridging rebuilding over the Gulf again after the prior upper level shortwave moved through by Monday, allowing for a brief lull on Tuesday. This however will mainly be for the southern half of the panhandle, as the position of the ridge will allow for some onshore flow to remain moving into the NE Gulf coast and keeping PoPs higher Icy Strait corridor northward and some light precipitation over the area. The southern panhandle will still see some cloud cover even with the ridging setting up, though precipitation chances will decrease to 20 to 40% Monday night through midday Tuesday.

The next front moving through will begin to impact the NE Gulf Coast and Yakutat areas into Tuesday night, before moving eastward across the panhandle. This front will move across the panhandle through Wednesday, bringing another round of rain and continued warmer temperatures to the panhandle. Highs for the northern half of the panhandle will be in the mid to high 40s, while the southern panhandle will see temperatures around 50 degrees, bringing us close to some record temperatures for this time of year if these warmer temperatures pan out. In terms of precipitation, the majority of the panhandle will see 850 mb temperatures warming to around 0 degrees C, and snow levels between 3000 and 5000 ft alongside the warmer temperatures and wet bulbs at the surface, bringing light to moderate rain across the area and snow mixing in only at higher elevations. The only area not expecting rain will be the Klondike Highway, with snow levels remaining just around 3000 ft allowing for wetter snow to continue, but with little to no accumulation expected. Overall the NE Gulf coastline will see between 1 and 2 inches of rain in 24 hours from this system Tuesday night into Wednesday, and generally less than 1 inch in 24 hours for the rest of the panhandle.

AVIATION
Aviation weather remains rather quiet across the panhandle this morning. VFR conditions with low winds are the main rule today. The exception is the NE gulf coast where some MVFR ceilings (down to 1200 ft) with occasional fog (vis down to 2 miles) has been reported this morning. For the most part, VFR conditions and lower winds are expected to continue through at least Saturday night for most areas. The next storm system coming late Saturday night into Sunday will bring lower conditions (down to MVFR, through some IFR may be observed mainly in the north where some precip may start as snow) and increasing winds (with some low level wind shear and/or turbulence) which will then persist into Monday.

MARINE
Outside: Southeasterly winds in the central gulf have decreased to 10 to 15 kts overnight, seeing only a brief break before the next system moves into the eastern gulf through Saturday. A large swath of 25 to 30 kt winds moving towards the northeastern outer coast of the gulf through Saturday evening will continue to intensify overnight. By Sunday morning, strong southeasterly gale force winds (41 to 47 kts) with potential for storm force gusts (48 to 55 kts) will be pushing inland the coast from Cape Ommaney to Cape Suckling. Strongest winds from Cape Spencer to Cape Suckling are expected to peak through midday Sunday. Gulf winds largely decrease to fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 kts)
overnight with southwesterly onshore flow continuing through Monday. Another system is set to move into the eastern gulf Tuesday.

Wave heights have decreased to around 5 to 7 ft through Sunday morning, and are expected to steadily increase through Saturday afternoon to eventually return to 10 to 15 ft at a period of 10 seconds by Sunday morning. Heights will increase to 15 to 22 ft along the northeastern gulf coast where winds are strongest midday Sunday. The gulf will return to a more uniform 10 to 15 ft with a longer period of 15 to 18 seconds by Sunday night. South to southwesterly 5 ft swell will be overtaken by 10 to 15 ft of southerly swell following the front Sunday morning before turning southwesterly and decreasing to 8 to 10 ft.

Inside: Very weak outflow winds around 5 kts through the inner channels will remain light through Saturday before the gale force front moves into the eastern gulf overnight into Sunday. Winds ahead of the front will turn onshore and proceed to largely increase to strong breezes to near gales (22 to 33 kts) early Sunday morning. Icy Strait winds will remain easterly through Sunday. As the front continues to push onshore through the day, gale force gusts (34 to 40 kts) will increase through the channels. Wave heights around 1 to 2 ft will increase to around 4 to 6 ft following the stronger winds, with channel entrances seeing up to 10 ft through Sunday night. Winds and waves will steadily decrease through Monday before another system moves into the eastern gulf Tuesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ642>644-651-652-662>664-671-672.