Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sitka and, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 112301 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 301 PM AKDT Sun May 11 2025

SHORT TERM
/Through Monday night/ Clouds have cleared out of most of the panhandle this afternoon with most areas reporting clear to broken sky cover. Consequently, a few areas have temperatures pushing 60+ with the increased sunshine. This is because of general low level offshore flow that developed across the panhandle this morning and surface ridging in the gulf of Alaska. Winds have also been rather light with most areas reporting 15 kt or less.

The clearer weather will not last, though it may stick around long enough in the inner channels for fog development to become a higher possibility for many areas late tonight and early Monday.
Otherwise, the ridging in the gulf is expected to flatten Monday as a front moves into it from the West. The weak offshore flow is expected to turn more onshore early Monday morning and may bring in some cloud cover into the outer coast as early as Monday morning. The front itself that is coming in from the W will start bringing precip into the panhandle as early as Monday afternoon for Yakutat and Monday evening for the northern panhandle. QPF amounts are expected to be around a quarter to half an inch at the highest total. The southern panhandle is not expected to see much rain out of this system at all due to divergence and the front weakening as it tries to move through the surface ridge.

Winds with this front are not that significant either with barely 20 kt expected pre-front. Post-front however has some 20 kt W winds spreading across the gulf Monday night that will likely bring some breezy conditions to the panhandle.


LONG TERM
The active weather pattern returns to the panhandle through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, though breaks will be present between systems.

A cold front successfully pushing through the ridge which had built over the area on Sunday/Monday will arrive through the latter half of Monday, and linger through the first half of Tuesday. Having seen its strength substantially weakened by its passage across the northern flank of the ridge over the Gulf, what is left of the front will have primarily focused in the northern panhandle and along the outer coast. Rain looks unimpressive, with minor accumulations of 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch over 24 hours, mainly for west facing mountains and with the heaviest totals clustered around the northern half of the area. The negatively tilted shortwave trough associated with the the front will work its way to the surface, leading to breezy conditions for the Icy Strait Corridor northward.

In the wake of the front, the ridge will briefly rebuild, and Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning will be a transient break between systems, though a few lingering showers are possible still on Tuesday. A stronger front from a low in the central to western gulf looks to move in from the SW Wednesday evening, bringing widespread breezy and wet conditions. Unlike the previous front, this looks to be a warm front, and will be complete with more robust moisture support, although still nothing too exceptional. The breeziest conditions look to be in the coastline communities and the southern panhandle communities. Not anticipating particularly breezy conditions in the far northern inner channels, as the front looks to weaken as it arrives, meaning the mountains look to block much of the energy from moving inland. Onshore flow then continues through Saturday, keeping chances of rain across the area to close out the week.
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