Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sitka and, AK

AVIATION
A front is moving South out of the Panhandle this morning, and there is onshore flow and showers behind it across the region. Within heavier showers, there is potential for IFR ceilings and visibilities, as has been observed across the Southern Panhandle. An occasional lightning strike has also been observed in the Gulf, so that is possible through the day. Shower chances expected to be generally higher for the Northern Panhandle than the Southern Panhandle. Otherwise, expect MVFR/VFR ceilings across the area today. With a low in the Bering Sea, expect rounds of showers approaching the area.

Depending on clearing tonight, anticipate some fog to develop across the Panhandle. As of now, fog and IFR ceilings and visibilities appears most likely for Petersburg, but is possible for Juneau, Gustavus, Sitka, Wrangell, and Klawock. The clearing and potential for fog will be monitored. After 16Z Tuesday, a low pressure system will form in the North Pacific and move toward the Southern Panhandle.
For Tuesday morning, this will likely bring lower ceilings and visibilities for Ketchikan, and perhaps Klawock. However, the main impacts will likely occur after the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 448 AM AKDT Mon Oct 12 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Quieter weather for the first part of the work week with lighter rain showers possible.

- A larger, impactful system to move into the Gulf midweek and impact SEAK by late week.

SHORT TERM...A brief break in active weather and heavier showers is expected today as the recent front dissipates over the region.
While northern areas will continue to experience lighter showers driven by onshore flow, the central to southern panhandle may see clearing skies as a weak ridge of high pressure moves in behind the departing front. Additionally, a shortwave along the northeast Gulf coast could trigger convective showers, leading to a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday due to colder air aloft over seasonably warm sea surface temperatures and positive buoyant energy. Meanwhile, a fast moving low-pressure system looks to clip the southern panhandle beginning Tuesday morning, primarily affecting southern Prince of Wales Island, Annette Island, Ketchikan, Misty Fjords, and Hyder, before lifting north into British Columbia by end of day. This system will bring another round of rain with 24-hour totals between 0.50 to 1.25 inches through early Wednesday morning.

As for precipitation over the north, temperatures at 850mb remain too warm to support snow at sea level, though some higher elevation passes into Canada (around 1.5-2.5kft) may encounter a rain-snow mix at times with no significant impacts expected. Winds will settle across the region today and tomorrow, though remain elevated this morning in the some northern inner channels and also near Skagway around 20-25 mph with potential for stronger gusts with passing showers. This is expected to trend down going into the afternoon.

LONG TERM...Thursday morning sees the beginning of a stronger atmospheric river move into the area. Some rather impressive dynamics look to be associated with this storm, with strong initial warm air advection, and relatively cold air advecting eastward. These ingredients coupled with sea surface temperatures still around the mid 50s means that the environment leans more towards the convective. Furthermore, a strong jet aloft with plenty of divergence behind the warm front sets the stage for meso vertices forming along the front. These cause a number of issues: timing, location, and intensity of rainfall and highest winds can shift drastically. Individual model runs tend to struggle with these environments, with run to run consistency of both the GFS and EC inconclusive on individual features. Ensemble guidance provides a clue on the location of highest wind speeds and rainfall however. At this point, the southern half of the panhandle has the highest likelihood of longer duration, heavier rainfall. The specifics regarding the hydrology portion of this storm are noted in the hydrology section.

Looking towards the weekend, there is roughly a 60-40 split of active weather continuing and a stronger low passing south respectively. If active weather continues, then generally southerly winds will accompany mostly rain for the panhandle. For the low passing south, this would invite stronger, downsloping northerlies, which would dry out the panhandle and bring cooler temperatures overnight.

AVIATION.../ through Monday night / Northern gulf to the northern panhandle continues to see a SW flow pattern with isolated showers activity cells a small handful being active enough to spark an isolated thunderstorm. Over the southern end of the panhandle the tail end of the weather front will be exiting the panhandle early this morning and should see precipitation taper off for maybe 6 to 8 hours and light showers start making a return evening and over night mainly for the far southern section.

Locally breezy conditions through Lynn Canal this morning, will likely have a bit turbulence around rough terrain or ridge tops.
Erratic winds near showers with some sudden wind shift and change in intensity too. Near the showers visibilities are dropping to 2 t 4 miles briefly as well in the shower activity.

Ceiling primarily MVFR with 1500 to 2500 feet this morning, although sites improving to VFR in the overnight portion so expect to see improvement during the day.

MARINE...
Outer Waters: Conditions improve through the beginning of the work week as winds and seas diminish behind the recent system.
Onshore flow dominates the Gulf with a weak ridge of high pressure to the south of the region. Southwesterly gentle to moderate breezes persist until Tuesday when a low pressure system is expected to form near Kodiak Island with another low forming upstream in the North Pacific. As the initial low moves toward Prince William Sound Tuesday morning, expect a easterly barrier jet to form with winds up to 20 kts between Cape Suckling and Icy Bay. Wave heights generally around 5-6 ft with southwesterly swell through the next few days. The next more organized system with gales and potential storm force winds arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

Inside Waters: A front dissipating over the panhandle will allow for winds and seas to decrease through the day. A weak ridge of high pressure moving in behind the front will relax the pressure gradient, causing winds to become light and variable across a majority of the region, except for the northern inner channels, specifically North Lynn Canal which will likely remain elevated around 20 kts in the morning, then taper off by the afternoon. Keeping with the downward trend, the Small Craft Advisory is no longer in effect, though conditions could still be unfavorable to smaller vessels until later in the day. Otherwise, the next system approaches from the south on Tuesday, amplifying winds and seas near southern ocean entrances.
This is expected to be quick-lived and as this low departs, another impactful system for Southeast Alaska is on the horizon, arriving late Wednesday night into Thursday.

HYDROLOGY...Impressive plume of moisture looks to be associated with the incoming atmospheric river Thursday morning. Strong WWA ahead of the moisture looks to raise freezing levels to above 5000 ft, with an atmosphere relatively saturated. Associated PWAT via ensemble mean looks to exceed the 95th percentile for this time of year for the southern panhandle. This coupled with the strong flow aloft means that IVT will likely exceed 500 kg/ms at around 80%. The big question here is timing of this moisture, and if any mesoscale features will keep this flow of moisture directed at the southern panhandle for longer. Dynamics continue to favor higher rain rates, with divergence aloft and stronger 850-700 mb southerly flow. Rain rates could exceed 0.3 in/hr for longer periods of time, and exceed 0.5 in/hr at elevation. Flooding is certainly possible with this rainfall intensity, but uncertainty in duration (see long term) has cast some doubt on overall impact level. Stay tuned for updates as the event approaches.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.